Jobless Claims Settle into a New Range
Several years ago now, when jobless claims first dropped below 300K, that was a level that was considered impressive and most likely temporary. That’s because throughout the history of the series, whenever claims traded below that level, they didn’t stay there for long. With claims coming in below 300K consistently for three years now, the new ‘temporary’ level became 250K. Over the last five months, though, jobless claims have pretty consistently come in below that level now as well, and they are now settling in at what appears to be an even lower new level. In this week’s report, weekly claims dropped to a level of 222K, marking the third straight week where claims have come in below 230K. The last time that happened? 1973! There’s only so much lower claims can go right?
While the four-week moving average didn’t make a new low for the expansion this week, it came pretty darn close. At 226K, the four-week average is just 1K above the multi-decade low of 225K from early February, and if claims come in anywhere near this week’s level next week, we should see a new low.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, jobless claims also remain strong. At this week’s level of 213.3K, the NSA reading is 125K below the average for the current week of the year dating back to 2000, and in the history of the time series (going back to the late 1960s), there has never been a lower print for the current week of the year. No matter how you slice it, jobless claims continue to be one of the most impressive economic indicators tracking the US economy.
The Closer — Minutes Review — 2/21/18
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we review the Fed minutes. We also update existing home sales data and recap Markit Flash PMIs from around the world released over the last 24 hours.
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B.I.G. Tips – Strongest Earnings Season in Years
Chart of the Day: Equity Investors Not Believing the Dollar Rally
Fixed Income Weekly – 2/21/18
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideals in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s note, we review the extreme pricing levels the investment grade corporate bond market has reached.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
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Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 2/21/18
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world. For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates. The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation. It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy. The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management. It’s published weekly every Wednesday at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.
You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!
The Closer — FX Charts — 2/20/18
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we review some technical setups for the dollar versus major currencies.
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B.I.G. Tips – Decile Analysis of the Bounce
Chart of the Day: Treasury Yield Spikes
The Best and Worst Performing Stocks on Earnings This Season
Through Friday, exactly 1,400 companies had reported their Q4 2017 EPS numbers this earnings season. The average one-day price change in reaction to these earnings reports has been a gain of 0.32%.
Bespoke keeps close tabs on all earnings-related news for companies that are publicly traded on US exchanges. We have a full searchable database of all earnings reports going back to 2001 that’s available to subscribers. You can access it here if you’re interested.
Below is a list of the 40 stocks that have reacted the most positively to their earnings reports so far this season (since 1/8). Fossil (FOSL) ranks first with an unbelievable one-day move of +87.72%. With a one-day gain of 47.58% in response to its 2/6 earnings report, Snap (SNAP) ranks second, followed by QuinStreet (QNST), Liquidity Services (LQDT), and Virtu Financial (VIRT).
The only two S&P 500 stocks in the top 40 are GWW and UAA.
Below is a list of the 40 stocks that have had the worst one-day price reaction to earnings this season. M/A-COM (MTSI) ranks worst with a one-day decline of 36.73%, followed by iRobot (IRBT) with a drop of 32.08%. RFP, ACET, and NGVC round out the worst five. Expedia (EXPE) has been the worst performing S&P 500 stock with a one-day drop of 15.47% on 2/9. Other notables on the list of losers include Canada Goose (GOOS), YRCW, Arista Networks (ANET), and Acuity Brands (AYI).
Below we narrow the list down to just S&P 500 stocks. These are the 30 S&P 500 stocks that have had the best one-day price reactions to earnings this season. Notables include eBay (EBAY), Intel (INTC), Netflix (NFLX), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Viacom (VIAB), and NVIDIA (NVDA).
Below are the 30 biggest losers on earnings this season in the S&P 500. United Continental (UAL), Texas Instruments (TXN), PayPal (PYPL), UPS, and Hershey (HSY) are a few notables. Ironically, eBay was one of the top performers on earnings this season, while its darling spin-off PayPal was one of the worst.
Want to find the biggest winners and losers during earnings season at any time? You can find them using our Earnings Screener. Below is an example of how you would search for a list of the biggest winners since a certain date. Try running the screen yourself to see how it works!
