Jobless Claims Slightly Ahead of Expectations

Jobless claims came in slightly ahead of expectations this week, rising from 223K up to 230K (compared to expectations for a rise to 228K).  Essentially, the report was inline with expectations, and jobless claims remain extraordinarily low by just about any historical precedent.  It has now been 154 straight weeks since claims last printed above 300K.  Another seven weeks of sub-300K claims, and the current streak will go down as the longest such streak in the history of the report (dating back to the mid-1960s).

After hitting a multi-decade low last week, the four-week moving average for claims increased by 4K to 228.5K.  Prior to last week, that would have been the low for the cycle.  Looking ahead to next week, in order to see a move back down to last week’s low, we’ll need to see a weekly print well below 220K.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, jobless claims continue to impress as well.  This week’s print of 233K was more than 140K below the average for the current week of the year dating back to 2000.  On top of that, there has never been an NSA reading for the current week of the year that was lower than this week’s print.  Never is a long time!

The Closer — Roses Are Red, Violets Are Blue, Inflation Higher & Stocks Too! — 2/14/18

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we review stronger-than-forecast CPI and the broad uptick in prices in recent months; we also discuss the likely Fed reaction to that uptick, weekly EIA data on petroleum inventories, and recent energy price action.

See today’s post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Bespoke’s Earnings Screener — The Best Searchable Earnings Database Online

Bespoke’s interactive Earnings Screener allows users to quickly and easily search for any quarterly earnings report released by any public US company going back to 2001.  The specific info for each earnings report includes the date and time of the report, the consensus analyst EPS and revenues estimate, the actual reported EPS and revenues, any guidance that was issued, and the one-day price reaction to the earnings report broken out by opening gap, open to close, and full day’s change.

Along with the ability to search for historical earnings reports by stock ticker, users can also search for earnings reports over any given date range.  Searches can be done for companies based on whether they beat or missed earnings or revenue estimates, or whether they raised or lowered guidance.  Additionally, you can search for earnings reports based on how much the stock price reacted to the news.  This allows users to build unique lists of stocks that have recently reported either exceptionally strong or exceptionally weak earnings results.  The capabilities are endless, and most importantly, the search functionality is extremely fast and simple.  There’s really nothing like our Earnings Screener in existence, and you can start using it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional.

Below are a few examples of the type of screens that can be run using our interactive Earnings Screener.

In our first example, we have screened for the historical earnings reports of Deere (DE) — a stock that’s set to report two days from now (2/16).  Simply search for “DE” using the “Ticker” option and click “Run Screen.”  While the image below only shows earnings reports for DE going back to August 2015, the full database presents the user with all DE earnings reports going back to 2001.

We’ve highlighted a few things concerning Deere’s prior earnings reports.  First, it’s noteworthy that the stock has beaten consensus analyst EPS estimates for ten consecutive quarters heading into Friday’s report.  This means investors have come to expect an earnings beat from DE at this point, which might result in added weakness for the stock were it to simply meet or miss expectations.  We’ve also highlighted that DE has raised forward guidance on four of its last five earnings reports.  That’s very impressive, but it also sets the bar high for its upcoming report.  Finally, we point out that in reaction to DE’s six most recent earnings reports, the stock has traded higher on the day five times.

In the second example below, we have filtered DE’s historical reports to only show its Q4 earnings releases.  With DE set to report its Q4 numbers, this lets users see if this specific quarter has been especially good or bad over the years.  You can also easily track year-over-year earnings and revenue numbers using this quarterly filter.  In the case of DE, note weakening Q4 revenues over the last few years.  Also note that while DE’s stock price has generally been reacting positively to earnings reports over the last year and a half, if you just look at the price reaction to its Q4 report going back to 2008, it has a tendency to either open weak or trade weak from the open to the close.

Let’s stick with DE for one more example of how you can use the Earnings Screener to help with trading decisions.  Let’s imagine that DE reports a blowout number on Friday morning and you own the stock.  Have you ever wondered whether you should lighten up on a position that’s up big on earnings, or maybe even add to it?  The Earnings Screener can help make the call.

If DE reports a Triple Play (beats earnings estimates, beats revenue estimates, raises guidance) and then gaps up at the open of trading on this news, how might shares trade from the open to the close that day?  Historical precedent can be your guide.  The filter below looks specifically for all instances in which DE has beaten EPS and revenue estimates, raised guidance, and then gaps up on the news.  As shown, the Earnings Screener has returned five prior events like this for DE.  One came in February 2017, one came in November 2016, one came in February 2010, and two came in 2004.  The main takeaway here is shown in the “Open to Close” column that we’ve highlighted.  As you can see, on these occasions when DE has gapped up at the open, the stock has traded lower from the open to the close four of five times.  Based on DE’s past trading patterns, it may be a smart idea to lighten up at the open of trading if it gaps up big.

In the examples above we’ve used the Earnings Screener to focus specifically on one stock.  But users can also use it to track results across the board throughout an earnings season or to find stocks that fit specific earnings result criteria that you set forth.

Below, we show you how you can simply pull up all recent earnings reports since a given date.  (Remember, with the database you can also pinpoint a specific date range going all the way back to 2001.)  Here we’ve asked the database to show us all earnings reports since February 8th, 2018.  In the snapshot below, we’ve cut off the data a few rows down, but this screen returned 81 earnings reports in total.

Now let’s say you want to find any stock that has reported since February 8th that beat consensus EPS estimates and also traded up more than 10% in reaction to the news.  Using the screening parameters shown below, we’re able to find the five stocks that fit this criteria in an instant.  As shown, CHGG, INST, VECO, CRNT, and MBUU all beat EPS and gained more than 10% on the day.  Maybe you’d want to run this screen to find stocks with strong earnings and price momentum, or maybe you’d want to use it to find stocks that may have gotten overheated.  Whatever it is you’re looking to do, our Earnings Screener can do it!

You can find stocks that may have been unduly hit hard on earnings as well.  Below we show all stocks that have reported since 2/8 that beat EPS estimates but traded down more than 5% on the news.  Here again, there are five stocks that fit these criteria — IVTY, TRU, GNRC, TOWR, and G.

There are unlimited possibilities with our Earnings Screener that are extremely useful for investors.  Whether you’re using the Earnings Screener to defensively monitor stocks that you own ahead of their quarterly earnings reports, or using it to find new long or short opportunities based on earnings strength or weakness, all of the information is available with a few clicks from your mouse.

We highly recommend trying out the Earnings Screener if you have yet to do so.  Go ahead and give it a try with a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional!

Looking For Action? S&P 1500 Most Volatile Stocks

For traders with a short-term time horizon looking for big moves, we have updated our list of the S&P 1500 stocks trading above $10 that have the largest intraday high-low ranges (based on the average percent spread between the intraday high and low over the last 50 days).  The stocks are grouped based on whether they have a rising or falling 50-day moving average (DMA).

While the pickup in volatility from the late January highs has been going on for less than three weeks, we are already starting to see an increase in volatility among the most volatile stocks.  Of the 50 names highlighted below, 26 have seen average intraday high low ranges in excess of 5%.

The most volatile stock in the S&P 1500 is Fossil (FOSL) with an average daily range of 7.9%.  The stock is up over 75% today alone!  While that’s a big move for one day, it doesn’t have nearly as large an impact on the intraday range, because a lot of today’s gain came in the gap which isn’t captured in the intraday high/low spread.  In other words, even before today, FOSL was a volatile stock.  Besides FOSL, the only other stock in the S&P 1500 that has seen an average daily range of more than 7% is Consol Energy (CEIX).

Other notable names that made the table below include Mattel (MAT), RH, Winnebago (WGO), and Mallinckrodt.  The highest priced stock listed is World Acceptance (WRLD).  With a share price of $106.99, and an average daily range of 4.8%, the stock typically swings over $5 per day on an intraday basis.  Finally, in terms of sector representation, the majority of the stocks listed come from one of three sectors.  Technology and Health Care both account for 14 names, while a dozen come from the Consumer Discretionary sector.

S&P 500 Stocks Have 22 Analyst Ratings on Average

We’ve just published a report for Bespoke Premium members titled “The Most Loved and Hated Sectors.”  The report looks at the sectors that have the highest percentage of Buy and Sell ratings along with the sectors that have seen the biggest increases or decreases in Buy and Sell ratings over the last six months.  If you’re not a subscriber, you can view the report by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium here.

Without breaking down the percentage of Buy and Sell ratings by sector, below we highlight the total number of Buy, Sell, and Hold ratings for S&P 500 stocks.  In total, there are 11,097 analyst ratings, which equates to 22 analyst ratings per stock.  Think that’s a bit excessive?

Of the 11,097 ratings, 5,701 are Buys, 4,850 are Holds, and 546 are Sells.  Clearly, analysts don’t like slapping a Sell rating on a stock!

Looking at sectors, you might think that Tech stocks are covered the most by analysts, but that’s not the case.  The Energy sector actually has the highest number of analyst ratings per stock at 29.6.  Tech ranks third at 25.7, followed by Consumer Discretionary at 23.8.

On the flip side, the Utilities sector — as much fun as it is — has the lowest number of analyst ratings per stock at 15.9.

Fixed Income Weekly – 2/14/18

Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideals in this asset class?  Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday.  We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week.  We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea.  We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.

In this week’s note, we update the relationship between the Fed’s estimate of longer-run interest rates, the market’s terminal rate estimate, and the ten year.

Sample

Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates.  You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!

Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!

Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 2/14/18

Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world.  For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates.  The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation.  It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy.  The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management.  It’s published weekly every Wednesday at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.

You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!

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