Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

Labor Market

Target Agrees to Review Screening of Job Applicants Amid Claims of Bias by Colin Moynihan (NYT)

Amidst a tight labor market, Target is showing a willingness to loosen its policy of conducting background checks dating back 10 years or more and refusing to hire candidates with infractions as light as misdemeanors. [Link; soft paywall]

Teacher Strikes Are Spreading Across America With No End in Sight by Josh Eidelson (Bloomberg)

Amidst stagnant pay and benefits, teachers in at least three states are demanding more pay. The paucity of strikes in recent years makes these work actions all the more interesting. [Link; auto-playing video]

Bob Davis Stories

The Architect of Trump’s Threatened China Trade War by Bob Davis (WSJ)

A profile of US Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer, the attorney and long-experienced trade negotiator who is forging the Trump Administration’s escalating protectionist policy. [Link; paywall]

The Future of America’s Economy Looks a Lot Like Elkhart, Indiana by Bob Davis (WSJ)

Rising house prices, signing bonuses in fast food, booming truck sales, and workers skipping college to assemble RVs are all characteristics of the boom in Elkhart, where unemployment has gone from 20% to 2% and worker shortages are forcing wide-ranging recruitment efforts. [Link; paywall]

Investing

Yale Endowment’s Casting Call Says ‘All Inquiries Are Welcome!’ by Janet Lorin (Bloomberg)

Yale’s legendary endowment office has an open door policy, inviting pitches from all manner of investors. [Link; auto-playing video]

Wall Street’s Big Banks Are Waging an All-Out Technological Arms Race by Hugh Son and Dakin Campbell (Bloomberg)

The story of electronic equities trading’s rise, which fueled a big payoff in the post-crisis world of a more algorithmic environment for big buyers and sellers of stock. [Link]

Pop Culture

‘We Played Prince Before Anyone Else’: How A Small Radio Station Changed American Pop Music by Zach Schonfeld (Newsweek)

Long Island radio station WLIR helped fuel the rise of new wave rock, helping forge a middle path between punk and disco. [Link]

Joaquin Phoenix by Will Farrell (Interview Magazine)

A free form phone interview of the eccentric actor by a comedic legend is just as fun, insightful, and revealing as you might expect, with a healthy dose of hilarious banter and anecdotes making the whole thing a really fun read. [Link]

Life, Online

Max Schrems: the man who took on Facebook – and won by Hannah Kuchler (FT)

A profile of the man that brought the fight over privacy to the social media giant, long before headlines about election influence, Cambridge Analytica, or concerned interviews by Mark Zuckerberg. [Link; paywall]

The joys of online syntax by Marie Le Conte (Chatham House)

An investigation of the trials and tribulations of communicating in short bits and bytes that lack context and even have a language entirely their own. [Link]

Real Estate

Manhattan Home Sales Tumble Most Since 2009 as Buyers Walk by Oshrat Carmiel (Bloomberg)

A small buyer’s strike is emerging in Manhattan real estate markets, where tax deduction limitations and higher borrowing costs have crimped activity. [Link; auto-playing video]

Injustice

A Betrayal by Hannah Dreier (ProPublica)

After risking his life to work with authorities in the fight against MS-13 and turning away from the violence of that gang, a young man was rewarded with deportation back to a country where he will be murdered for his heroism. [Link]

Read Bespoke’s most actionable market research by starting a two-week free trial today!  Get started here.

Have a great Sunday!

Each month, Bespoke runs a survey of 1,500 US consumers balanced to census.  In the survey, we cover everything you can think of regarding the economy, personal finances, and consumer spending habits.  We’ve now been running the monthly survey for more than three years, so we have historical trend data that is extremely valuable, and it only gets more valuable as time passes.  All of this data gets packaged into our monthly Bespoke Consumer Pulse Report, which is included as part of our Pulse subscription package that is available for either $39/month or $365/year.  We highly recommend trying out the service, as it includes access to model portfolios and additional consumer reports as well.  If you’re not yet a Pulse member, click here to start a 30-day free trial now!

We ask questions in our monthly Pulse survey that ultimately provide us with directional trends for the US economy.  With multiple years of survey data at this point, we now have a number of “bespoke” economic indicators.  Some of the indicators are more traditional (unemployment, spending, income, etc.), while others are off the beaten path.  Two “offbeat” economic indicators that we now have from our monthly Pulse survey are shown below.  The first shows the percentage of consumers that have had elective surgery over the last month.

The thinking behind our “elective surgery” indicator is that consumers are willing to have more of these types of procedures when they’re feeling flush.  When times are tough, elective procedures are out of the question.

As shown below, the percentage of consumers opting for cosmetic or plastic surgery hit a new high in our series in the most recent month, jumping up to 3.2%.  That’s a healthy sign.  Orthopedic visits or surgeries have been trending higher over the last few years as well, as has Lasik surgery.  The cosmetic or plastic surgery indicator has definitely jumped the most of the three, though.

Another “offbeat” indicator we’ve built is the “living paycheck to paycheck” reading.  Below are the historical results from our monthly survey question asking consumers if they consider themselves to currently be living paycheck to paycheck.  As shown, those who agree or strongly agree that they do live paycheck to paycheck has been trending lower since early 2017, and it just hit a multi-year low in our series.  This is another sign that the consumer is feeling pretty flush right now.

To access our full Pulse report, click here to start a 30-day free trial now!

Last Monday we published a Think B.I.G. post noting that the S&P 500’s 50-day average daily change had ticked up to +/-0.92%.  Given that every day so far in April has seen a 1%+ move and that nine of the last ten trading days have seen 1%+ moves, it’s no surprise that the reading has ticked up over 1% at this point.  Over the last 50 trading days, the S&P 500’s average daily change has been +/-1.04%.  Remember that just a few months ago, this reading had ticked all the way down to +/-0.22%, and a 1% move was pretty much unheard of.  Now it’s very uncommon for the S&P not to close up or down at least 1%.

At some point, all of this daily volatility will settle down again, but until it does, traders that for years were painfully dealing with low vol can now rejoice.

Start a free trial to one of our three membership levels for full coverage and analysis of the market.

The weekly AAII bullish and bearish readings are meant to track individual investor sentiment towards the stock market.  While bullish sentiment remained low for nearly all of 2017 (as the S&P 500 went up and up and up), it spiked up to the high 50s just as the market was peaking in January.  The first 10%+ correction for the S&P 500 since early 2016 ensued, and like clockwork, the AAII bullish reading collapsed back down to the high 20s/low 30s.

AAII surveys individual investors on a weekly basis, and this week the bullish sentiment reading took a very small dip to 31.9%.  At the same time, the AAII bearish sentiment ticked up very slightly to 36.64%.  Given that sentiment readings are generally viewed as contrarian, it’s bullish to see more bears than bulls.

Start a free trial to one of our three membership levels for full coverage and analysis of the market.