Earnings Season’s Biggest Winners and Losers…So Far
The average stock that has reported earnings this season (since 4/10) has fallen in price on its earnings reaction day (the first trading day following a stock’s earnings report).
Below is a list of the stocks that have posted the biggest one-day gains in reaction to their earnings reports. For stocks that report after the close, we use the next day’s price change. For stocks that report before the open, we use that day’s price change.
As shown, Limelight Networks (LLNW) has seen the best response of any stock on earnings this season with a one-day gain of 21.71%. Just two other stocks have seen gains of more than 15% on their earnings reaction days — Ericsson (ERIC) and Santander (SC).
Six other stocks have posted gains of more than 10% — SANM, STNG, HLX, USNA, LRN, and TRU. Other notables on the list of biggest earnings season winners include Netflix (NFLX), Six Flags (SIX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), American Express (AXP), and CSX.
While 9 stocks have gained more than 10% on their earnings reaction days so far this quarter, 13 have fallen more than 10%. The three worst performers in reaction to earnings have been Skechers (SKX), trivago (TRVG), and Pier 1 Imports (PIR). All three of these stocks fell more than 20% in response to earnings. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) just missed falling 20% with a one-day decline of 19.95%.
Other notables on the list of biggest earnings season losers include Philip Morris International (PM), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), IBM, 3M (MMM), and United Rentals (URI).
Sign up for a Bespoke Premium free trial for more in-depth earnings season analysis.
Bespoke Short Interest Report – 4/25/18
Short interest figures for the middle of April were released after the close on Tuesday, so we have just updated our regular report on short interest trends for the market, sectors, and individual stocks for clients. Below we wanted to quickly highlight two charts that caught our eye. With the S&P 500 trading at or close to correction levels, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that we have seen short interest levels pick up a bit, but two sectors where investors appear to have little concern is in the Financials and Materials sectors. The charts below are pulled from our regular update on trends in short interest, and they compare the average short interest level (as a percentage of float) of stocks in the sector to its price going back to 2007.
For both sectors, not only are average short interest levels right near their lowest levels of the last year, but they are also right near their lowest levels in over a decade. For these sectors, at least, investors don’t seem all that concerned. While there are valid reasons to be positive on the prospects for either sector, one would think investors would be showing a little bit more concern.
For a more detailed look at short interest data on a regular basis, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!
Fixed Income Weekly – 4/25/18
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideals in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s note we discuss the current issuance tempo and quality of new bonds being sold in the high yield market.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!
Ten-Year Yield Momentum
One of the problems with the market we have been highlighting over the last several weeks has been the equity market’s inability to hang on to early gains. Whether or not stocks trade higher at the open, the trend throughout the trading day has been lower. In the Treasury market, we have seen a similar trend as investors take any opportunity they can get to dump long-term paper. Since the direction of treasury prices has the opposite impact on yields, this has resulted in some strong upward momentum for treasury yields.
Take the last week or so, for example. If today’s increase in yields holds, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury will have finished the day higher than it opened for six straight days. This helped to push the yield above the ‘dreaded’ 3% threshold. Similar runs of strong intraday increases in the 10-year yield have been relatively uncommon over the last twenty years with the current streak being the 19th such streak of six or more days. The longest streak of consecutive open to close increases in the 10-year yield lasted nine trading days in the period ending in June 2006, and the most recent streak of six or more days was exactly two years ago today!
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 4/25/18
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world. For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates. The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation. It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy. The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management. It’s published weekly every Wednesday at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.
You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!
Chart of the Day: Earnings Pump Fake — Don’t Bite!
The Closer — Equity Index Technicals & US Data Deluge Charted — 4/24/18
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we review price action for US equity indices, discuss some misconceptions related to changing bank assets, and recap a number of economic data points released today: new home sales, the regional Richmond Fed survey of manufacturing and services, Case-Shiller home price data, and Conference Board consumer confidence data.
See today’s post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional today!