The Closer — Trade Cruising, Manufacturing Not So Much — 6/27/18
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we take a look at strong trade numbers that will boost Q2 GDP substantially. We also review soft durable goods activity numbers updated today, and weekly EIA data on petroleum inventories.
See today’s post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Mexican Macro Ahead of Elections
Looking to stay on top of what’s going on in financial markets and economic data around the world? Each week, we publish our Global Macro Dashboard, a rundown of 23 different major global economies. We include equity prices, equity valuations and yields, real economic growth, unemployment, retail sales, industrial production, inflation, growth of the money supply, FX rates, and interest rates in one easily digestible packet of charts. Of course, detailed economic or financial analysis often requires deeper dives into the details, but this report is a great way to hit the high notes around the world and look for possible opportunities..
Mexico heads to the polls on Sunday in an enormously consequential election that has implications for asset markets, trade negotiations, and more (for background, our Bespokecast conversation with Horacio Coutino of ETM Analytics has you covered, link). Ahead of that election, Mexico’s stock market has underperformed badly and interest rates have risen significantly. Bond yields have risen and the Banxico has worked to fight the fall in the peso by hiking rates. While the labor market is hot (new cycle lows in unemployment), real GDP growth and industrial production have slowed. Below we show the chart pack for Mexico from this week’s Global Macro Dashboard, which is included with a subscription to Bespoke Institutional.
B.I.G. Tips – China Bears
Chart of the Day: Surprise Streak Nearing its End
Fixed Income Weekly – 6/27/18
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideals in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In our analysis today we review the shape of the Treasury curve from the perspective of US Treasury butteflies.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 6/27/18
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world. For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates. The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation. It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy. The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management. It’s published weekly every Wednesday at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.
You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!
The Closer — Brent Breaks Out, Mexico Hires, Home Price Push, 4 of 5 Fed, Stoxx — 6/26/18
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we review a breakout in Brent and intense price action in both WTI-Brent and crack spreads. We also take a look at a variety of US data points including manufacturing activity and Case-Shiller Home Prices. Mexican labor markets are in strong shape, as today’s unemployment numbers showed. Our last set of charts reviews performance of Stoxx 600 groups and their valuations.
See today’s post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke CNBC Appearance (6/26)
B.I.G. Tips – Diverging Confidence
Italian and Greek Yields Converge
Remember back when Greece was the laughingstock of Europe with its seemingly non-stop economic, political, and debt problems? They aren’t laughing as much anymore. Just yesterday, S&P raised its rating on Greek long-term debt, and while the current rating of B+ is still pretty far down the ladder in terms of quality, it’s moving in the right direction. As things currently stand, Greek 10-year debt sports a yield of 4.11%, which is down more than a full percentage point in the last year.
At the same time that yields on Greek debt have been falling, yields on Italian debt have been rising. In Italy, yields on 10-year debt are at 2.89%. While that’s right around the same yield as the US 10-year, relative to most other of its EU peers, Italian debt yields are up sharply over the last year as well as the last three months. As a result of the opposite moves in the yields of Greek and Italian 10-year debt, the spread between the two has narrowed considerably. Through Tuesday, yields on 10-year Greek debt offer a premium of just 122 basis points over Italian debt, which is the narrowest spread since December 2009. We’ll let you decide what this says about the relative attractiveness of either country’s debt.




