Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/17/26
The Bespoke Report – 4/17/26
The S&P 500 fell more than 1% in each of the four full trading weeks of March, but the index has now risen 3%+ in each of the last three weeks.
The sharp move higher has left the index at fresh all-time highs.
In this week’s Bespoke Report, we cover the snapback rally that we’ve seen and how prior rapid reversals like this have eventually played out.
We also take a look at the upcoming earnings season, positive economic data, and the recent outperformance for international markets.
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Tech Sticks the Landing
It’s been an impressive run for the Technology sector. As noted in today’s Morning Lineup, since its closing low on 3/30, the sector has rallied 18.4% for its largest 12-trading day gain since coming out of the Covid Crash. It’s also traded higher for 12 straight days, which is already tied for the second-longest streak in the sector’s history. Following news from Iran that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for as long as the ceasefire remains in place, the Technology sector is trading 1.5% higher in the pre-market, which would extend the streak to 13 straight trading days, trailing only the 15-day streak that ended in February 2017.
Besides an impressive 13-day winning streak, if today’s early gains hold, the Technology sector will also take out its prior all-time high from late October. What really stands out about the chart, though, is how the sector “stuck the landing” with its 50-day moving average (DMA).
As shown in the chart, shortly after last October’s peak, the 50-DMA leveled out and then started a descent early this year, even as the 200-DMA kept rising. Heading into late March, the seatbelt lights were on as it looked as though the 50-DMA was coming in hot towards the 200-DMA. But the rally during the current winning streak softened the rate of descent, and over the last few days, the 50-DMA has started to flare just as it saw “wheels down” on the 200-DMA, sticking the perfect landing.
Now, when is the next “wheels up”?
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/17/26 – Lucky or Unlucky 13?
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“Power resides where men believe it resides. It’s a trick. A shadow on the wall.” — Lord Varys, Game of Thrones
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As if a 12-day rally wasn’t enough for bulls, Nasdaq futures are indicated higher again this morning, putting the index on pace for its 13th day in a row of gains. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are on pace to rally 0.40% while futures on the Dow, which has underperformed recently, indicate a 0.54% gain at the open. The 10-year yield is slightly lower and holding below 4.3% while crude oil flirts with $90 to the downside, falling more than 4%. Gold prices are modestly higher with a gain of 0.34%, while Bitcoin rallies nearly 1% to its highest level since early February.
For much of this year, investors had to put up with weakness heading into the weekend, given all the uncertainty surrounding the war. For the last two weeks, though, investors haven’t been able to resist adding exposure heading into a 48-hour break.
International markets have been more mixed to close out the week, but are still higher for the week. The Nikkei fell 1.8% overnight while Hong Kong, China, and South Korea were all down less than 1%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 is marginally gaining 0.1%, with Italy leading the way (+0.6%) while the UK lags (-0.4%).
Just over two weeks ago, on March 30, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at their lowest levels since the summer, the Iran war was ongoing, and while Iran’s capabilities were severely damaged, the New York Times warned of a quagmire, saying that “Wounded Iran Is Still Biting: Attacks May Be Fewer But Have Deadly Effect”. Besides all that, it was a Monday too!
At the time, very few probably anticipated what was in store next for the market. Since that low, the Nasdaq hasn’t closed lower on a single day, and the S&P 500 has rallied in eleven of the last 12 days for a total gain of 11.0%. At the sector level, the rally hasn’t been especially broad, and gains have been concentrated in Technology and Communication Services, which both have surged more than 18%. The only sector that has outperformed the S&P 500 since that low is Consumer Discretionary (+13.6%).
To the downside, Energy has been the main loser with a decline of 9.0%, and the only other sector in the red has been Consumer Staples (-0.8%). As we noted earlier in the week, Consumer Staples is the only sector in the S&P 500 that declined both in the first month of the war from 2/27 to 3/30 and since the 3/30 low.
Technology has been the clear leader over the last 12 trading days, and relative to its own history, it’s been an impressive streak. The current streak for the sector is tied with the period ending 2/26/19 for the longest since February 2017. That 15-day winning streak was also the longest in the sector’s history since 1990.
Not only has the sector’s winning streak been among the sector’s best, but the 18.4% rally over the last 12 trading days has been among the strongest since 1990 as well. You have to go back to April 2020, coming out of Covid to find a bigger 12-day rally (+20.9%), and before that, the only larger 12-day gain was in March 2009 coming out of the Financial Crisis. To be sure, not all big 12-day gains for the Technology sector were followed by gains going forward, but the sector’s median gain over the following six and twelve months was 13.8% and 28.1%, respectively.
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The Closer – AI Breakout, Services, Loan Growth – 4/16/26
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- AI stocks are trading at some of the most overbought levels since the spring of 2023 following a surge in both Infrastructure and Implementation names in April.
- After a surprise pop last week, jobless claims data returned to healthy levels that are inline with typical seasonal patterns of the past few years.
- The Federal Reserve’s H.8 report has indicated surging deposit growth this year thanks to core loan growth accelerating to 8% annualized in the past three months.
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 4/16/26
B.I.G. Tips – New Highs on Few Highs
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) Q1 2026 earnings call.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is the largest US bank, operating across consumer banking, investment banking, trading, and asset/wealth management. The bank posted $16.5B in net income and 10% revenue growth, driven by strong trading (+21% fixed income, +17% equities) and a rebound in investment banking fees (+28%). Management emphasized that the US consumer remains “resilient,” with spending still growing and credit performance stable, though heavily dependent on a strong labor market. The bank flagged rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East and higher energy prices as key watch points. Jamie Dimon warned that while private credit isn’t systemic, the next credit cycle could produce worse-than-expected losses. A major focus was regulatory pressure, with Basel III and GSIB rules potentially adding roughly $20B in capital and raising borrowing costs. AI remains a double-edged sword, driving fraud prevention and customer tools, but increasing cyber risk. Results were better than expected, but shares were down less that 1% on 4/14…
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Chart of the Day: The Emerging Markets Flowpocalypse
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/16/26 – Semis Leading Without the Big Guns
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“Our conviction in the multi-year AI megatrend remains high and we believe the demand for semiconductors will continue to be very fundamental.” – C.C. Wei, President and CEO, Taiwan Semiconductor
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Before getting to this morning’s note, last night we updated our Bespoke Baskets, where we made two changes to the Growth basket and no changes to the Dividend Income basket. You can view the full update here.
Also, be sure to watch our discussion on markets with Brian Sullivan in a CNBC appearance yesterday.
Futures are indicated higher again this morning as the S&P 500 looks to add to its record highs from yesterday, in what has been one of the most rapid turnarounds in market history. Treasury yields are also lower, while crude oil is just fractionally higher. Both gold and Bitcoin have also shown very modest moves in either direction.
In Asia overnight, most major benchmarks were higher, with the Nikkei up over 2% and China up roughly 1%. In Europe, we’re also seeing gains with the STOXX 600 up 0.4%.
The pace of earnings continues to pick up, but this morning’s focus has been on economic data, and the news was good as both jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing report exceeded expectations. Lastly, in Fedpseak, NY Fed President John Williams is speaking right now, and he commented that “the No. 1 topic related to the economy is the Middle East conflict, which has introduced substantial risks and heightened uncertainty”.
Since it’s not a US company, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) doesn’t get a lot of attention in US stock market coverage, which is a mistake. With a market cap of just under $2 trillion, it’s one of the ten largest publicly traded companies in the world. TSM is the linchpin of the global semiconductor supply chain and the global digital economy for that matter. As much as the Iran war has disrupted energy supplies and threatened to derail the global economy, in a scenario where semiconductor supplies from TSM were cut off for an extended period, it would be an economic calamity.
Thankfully, that’s not the case. Overnight, TSM reported better-than-expected EPS and sales and raised guidance. As highlighted in the quote above, the company sees no signs of a slowdown in demand. Revenues rose 40.6% y/y on incredible gross margins of 66.2%.
TSM’s results for Q1 were nothing new and continued a trend of strong results since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. In the 14 quarters since that launch, the company has reported better-than-expected EPS results 13 times, exceeded sales results nine times, and raised guidance nine times. As shown in the table below, while results relative to expectations were shaky early on in the bull market, more recent results have been consistently strong, with six triple plays in its last seven reports.
Despite the strong results overnight, shares of TSM are trading modestly lower in the pre-market and failed to make a new high in yesterday’s trading, even as the broader market and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) specifically hit new highs yesterday. That’s not to say that the stock hasn’t been a strong performer, though, more than doubling in the last twelve months.
TSM is the second-largest stock in the SOX on a market cap basis, trailing Nvidia (NVDA) by a wide margin. Like TSM, though, NVDA also didn’t join the SOX or the S&P 500 in hitting a new high yesterday. The fact that the SOX has managed to make new highs without the participation of its two largest members illustrates how broad the underlying strength in the sector has been.
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