The Closer – More Megas, Claims, AI – 5/1/25
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after beginning with a review of the latest earnings including the next mega-cap results (page 1) we dive into the latest claims and construction spending data (page 2). We also check in on the ISM reading (page 3) and finish with a dive into AI stock performance (page 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Chart of the Day – Breadth Leads With Stocks Below Highs
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 5/1/25
Bespoke Market Calendar — May 2025
Please click the image below to view our May 2025 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/1/25 – Magnificent Megacaps
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“AI is transforming everything we do” – Mark Zuckerberg
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We had to earnings reports from mega-caps after the close last night, and both Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) delivered. Both stocks are trading sharply higher in response to the reports, as META rallies over 6% and MSFT is on pace to gap up over 9%, which would put the stock on pace for its most positive gap higher in reaction to earnings since 2009.
The pace of earnings isn’t the only thing picking up, either. It will be another busy morning for economic data with jobless claims at 8:30, followed by the ISM Manufacturing report and Construction Spending at 10 AM. Given the weakness in soft economic data and the April regional Fed manufacturing surveys, don’t expect much positive from the ISM Manufacturing report. Still, claims will be an important report to watch as they have been very well-behaved up until now. This morning’s release, however, came in higher than expected on both an initial and continuing basis, with most of the increase in initial claims coming from New York. One week does not make a trend, but this will be even more important to watch next week.
There’s been a lot of talk about the potential for permanent damage to ‘brand America’ given the President’s brash tone towards long-time allies and the haphazard implementation of his tariff policy. The jury is still out on that one, but when it comes to investor sentiment, we were surprised to see today that the weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed an increase in bearish sentiment this week (55.6% up to 59.3%), even as the survey week came just as the S&P 500 was up over 1.5% on back to back to back days and has also been riding a seven-day winning streak. Normally, bearish sentiment declines as the market recovers, but for now at least, investor sentiment seems to be scarred (or scared) from the sharp declines earlier in the month.
Wednesday’s session was a fitting end to a dramatic month. Just as the S&P 500 recovered from a decline of over 10% intra-month and almost erased it all by month end, in yesterday’s trading, the S&P 500 erased an intraday decline of more than 2% to finish the day in positive territory. The last time that happened was at the bear market lows in October 2022.
From a technical perspective, yesterday’s reversal occurred right where it was supposed to. After breaking its downtrend from the February highs last Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) pulled back to that former trendline and bounced. Now, if it can maintain that momentum in the next couple of days and break back above the 50-day moving average, the technical picture would look much more encouraging. With futures up over 1% this morning, that 50-DMA will likely come into play today.
Reversals like yesterday’s aren’t all that common. Since its inception in 1993, there have only been 44 other days when SPY was down at least 2% intraday but finished the day higher. As shown in the chart below, these types of reversals occurred frequently during bear markets, with several during the dot-com bust and even more during the Financial Crisis, and even a few during the 2022 bear market. They haven’t been exclusive to bear markets, though, as there were more than a few scattered throughout bull markets and shallower market corrections.
The Closer – Mega-Cap Earnings, GDP, Oil – 4/30/25
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after a review of the latest earnings including results from a couple of mega-caps (page 1) we dive headfirst into the GDP data (pages 2 – 4). We close out with a look into the brutal month for crude prices (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/30/25
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Generac (GNRC)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Generac’s (GNRC) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Generac (GNRC) designs and manufactures backup power systems, energy storage solutions, and grid-connected energy products for residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Known for its industry-leading home standby generators, the company also owns smart thermostat maker Ecobee and produces energy storage systems like PWRcell. GNRC serves homeowners, utilities, data centers, telecom networks, and infrastructure customers, offering critical resilience in an increasingly volatile energy landscape. GNRC exceeded expectations in Q1, with revenue up 6% YoY to $942M, driven by a 15% surge in residential product sales amid lingering demand from 2024’s extreme weather. Home standby shipments rose mid-teens, but close rates remain pressured. Ecobee delivered strong sales and margin gains, while the DoE energy storage program in Puerto Rico also contributed. Tariffs emerged as the key headwind. GNRC expects $125M in second-half cost pressure from current levels (145% for China imports). The company raised prices 7–8% to offset this and widened its full-year guidance range to reflect tariff and macro uncertainty. GNRC shares were flat on 4/30 after posting results…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for GNRC by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Chart of the Day – Berkshire Stock and Holdings Diverge
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Mondelez International (MDLZ)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Mondelez International’s (MDLZ) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Mondelez International (MDLZ) is one of the world’s largest snack food companies, known for iconic brands like Oreo, Chips Ahoy, Ritz, Cadbury, and Toblerone. Operating across more than 150 countries, the company focuses primarily on biscuits and chocolate, with growing portfolios in gum, candy, and baked snacks. MDLZ delivered 3.1% organic revenue growth despite headwinds from record-high cocoa costs and soft consumer demand in North America. Chocolate pricing drove growth, but volume mix declined 3.5% due to elasticity, Easter timing, and US retailer destocking. The company gained market share in chocolate globally and defended biscuits through innovation and value packs. In Europe, pricing passed with minimal disruption, while emerging markets like China and Brazil remained bright spots despite broader consumer softness. US confidence remains low, pressuring discretionary snack sales. Tariff impacts were manageable, and MDLZ reaffirmed its full-year guidance, emphasizing reinvestment if cocoa prices ease. MDLZ shares rose 4.5% on 4/30 after posting mixed results…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for MDLZ by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: