Below is a look at the performance of 75 country stock markets around the world so far in 2019.  These numbers show each country’s year-to-date percentage change (not total return) in local currency.

It would be hard to imagine a better start to a year for global equities.  Of the 75 country stock markets in our table, 64 (85.3%) are in the green, and the average gain across all countries stands at +6.38%.  Bermuda and Argentina are the two best performing stock markets so far with gains of north of 20%, while Oman has been the worst with a YTD decline of 6.2%.

Notably, the G7 countries are performing very well in 2019, with all 7 outperforming the average.  Canada is up the most of the G7 countries with a YTD gain of 11.94%, and the US is not far behind at +11.33%.   Three of the four “BRIC” countries are up more than 10%, with China leading the way at +12.44%.  India is the only BRIC country in the red for the year.

One aspect of the rally in stocks this year that we can’t stress enough is how strong breadth has been.  Besides the fact that the equal-weighted S&P 500 is outperforming the market cap weighted index by close to three percentage points YTD, the vast majority of S&P 500 Industry Groups are also either right at or very close to YTD highs.  The table below lists S&P 500 Industry Groups that, along with the S&P 500, hit YTD highs so far today.  Of the 60 Industry Groups, 26 hit YTD highs today and five of them are already up 20% YTD!

In addition to the 26 Industry Groups above, another 16 Industry Groups traded within 1% of a YTD high today and three of those are also up over 20% YTD.  Adding both lists together, 70% of S&P 500 Industry Groups either traded at or came within 1% of hitting a YTD high this morning.  That’s broad!

As we mentioned yesterday, the Dow (DIA) was the first of the major index ETFs in our Trend Analyzer to finally break out of the downtrend it had been stuck in over the past couple months.  Despite declines on the day yesterday, the Russell Mid-Cap ETF (IWR) is now the second member of the group of index ETFs to have moved out of its downtrend.  Again, while it may not be an uptrend we would prefer to see, the sideways trend is reassuring.

Declines yesterday also yanked the leash on overbought levels as several members of the group of ETFs entered the day very close to 2 standard deviations above the 50-DMA.  Every ETF is still overbought but at more middling levels.  Headed into the final session of the shortened week, small-caps have drastically outperformed with gains of nearly double the other indices.  At the top is the Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) with a gain of 2.53% over the week.  Right on its heels is the Micro-Cap (IWC) and Russell 2000 (IWM) at 2.44% and 2.20%, respectively.  At the other end of the spectrum, the Nasdaq (QQQ) has been very weak over the past five days only gaining 0.36%.

If you were sent back in time to 2004 and had the choice to buy Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) or Alphabet (GOOGL) at their IPO, which would have been the better choice?  Due to the epic size and influence of its business, impulse would probably have you choose Alphabet.  But DPZ has actually seen significantly better returns than GOOGL since the companies’ IPO dates. Since inception, DPZ has seen a total return of 3,604% even after today’s 9.03% decline in the stock in reaction to an earnings miss this morning.  Not that GOOGL’s 2,490% return is something to turn your nose at, but it is dwarfed by DPZ’s returns.  For the stocks’ first decade, up until 2014, this was not the case though.  GOOGL had actually outperformed DPZ for much of their lifespans as public companies.  From then up until early 2016, the two stocks alternated between being the leader, but in the last two years, Domino’s ran away with things.  Part of the reason for this is DPZ has fairly consistently paid a dividend since 2004 which is why returns for the stock have been considerably better over the long term.

There was a time not long ago that the market was all FANG all the time, and by FANG we not only mean the four stocks that make up the acronym but also the other members of the group that makes up the FANG+ Index.  The FANG+ Index was created probably more as a marketing gimmick than anything else, but in addition to the likes of Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOGL), it also includes other high growth names like Alibaba (BABA), Apple (AAPL), Baidu (BIDU), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Twitter (TWTR).  Looking at the various names that make up the group, a number of them have fallen on some hard times of late and have been underperforming the broader market.

This recent underperformance has also been reflected in the breadth of the FANG+ index.  As we have highlighted in a number of our reports over the last few weeks, the S&P 500’s cumulative A/D line has exceeded its highs from last fall.  The FANG+ stocks, though? Not so much.  In fact, it’s not even close.  As shown in the red line below, breadth for the FANG+ stocks actually peaked early last summer and failed to make a new high when breadth for the S&P 500 made a new high last September.  Even more troubling for the group in the short-term, though, is that even as breadth for the S&P 500 made new highs this week, cumulative breadth in the FANG+ index is still well off its highs from early February.

As seen through the weekly AAII survey this week, investor sentiment showed growing optimism but nothing extreme.  Bullish sentiment was up a little over 4% to 39.32%, and while not particularly high, the percentage of bulls now sits at the upper end of the range the sentiment reading has been at over the past couple months.

Meanwhile, bearish sentiment held steady rising ever so slightly to 25.39% from 25.07% last week.  The percentage of bearish investors has come way off of its highs from the late 2018 sell off and is sitting at the lower end of the range that has been observed in the past year. So while in the short term it may seem this sentiment reading is still extremely low, looking back further it is actually more or less in line with what has been seen in the past.

All of the gains to bulls and bears came at the expense of those that reported neutral sentiment last week.  As we mentioned last week, neutral sentiment has been climbing quickly in the past month to fairly elevated levels after hitting multi-year lows in the final week of 2018.  Pulling back to 35.3% this week, it is still a few points above the historical average.