Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/13/26 – It Could Be Worse
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“Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances.” – Thomas Jefferson
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The week hasn’t even started yet, but it’s been volatile already as equity futures gapped down more than 1% at the open last night and then rallied right up until around 7 AM when Goldman (GS) reported. That stock is down over 4% in pre-market trading, and the S&P 500 is now set to gap down 0.63%.
The culprit behind this morning’s weakness is once again the Middle East, as President Trump’s plan to put a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has crude oil up over 7% and back above $100 per barrel. With crude oil up as much as it is, you could argue that equities should be down more based on the relationship between the two since the war started, but as earnings season kicks off, the market is starting to trade on more than just oil prices.
In Asia and Europe overnight and this morning, the overall trend is lower as major averages on both continents declined or are trading down about 1%. Gold prices are also trading down about 1%, while Bitcoin is only fractionally lower, just below $71K.
As mentioned above, futures are off the initial lows from last night, but with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on pace to gap down 0.62% at the open, it would be the third-largest downside opening gap on a Monday of the year. It would also break a streak of four straight weeks where the market gapped higher on a Monday. Even during a war, Mondays haven’t been that bad lately. For the entire year, though, SPY’s median gap on Mondays has been a decline of 0.08% with positive returns half of the time.
The weakest day of the week in terms of where the market opens has clearly been Thursday. For the entire year, the average downside gap on Thursdays has been a decline of 0.27%, and since the war started, SPY has gapped down on every Thursday. As bad as Thursdays have been at the open, Wednesdays have been solid. On the 14 Wednesdays so far in 2026, SPY has gapped higher 12 times for a median gain of 0.21%.
Where the market opens is one thing, but where it goes for the next 6.5 hours from the open to close is just as important. While Mondays have been modestly negative at the open, it has been the best day of the week from the open to close with a median gain of 0.40% and positive returns 75% of the time. With a median open-to-close gain of 0.24%, Tuesdays haven’t been as bad either. From there, though. The trading day only goes downhill from there, though. SPY’s median change from the open to close on Wednesday has been a decline of 0.14%, with positive returns barely more than a third of the time. Thursdays are even worse with a median decline of 0.23%. While Friday’s median open-to-close change has been slightly positive, since the war started, SPY has declined from the open to close on Fridays every time for a median decline of just over 1% (-1.04%).
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Brunch Reads – 4/12/26
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Poyekhali!: With the Artemis 2 astronauts splashing down on Friday after returning from their trip around the moon, we find this look back at history especially relevant. On April 12, 1961, Yuri Gagarin became the first person to travel into space aboard Vostok 1. Launched by the Soviet Union, Gagarin exclaimed “Poyekhali!” which means “Let’s go!” and completed a single orbit of Earth in 108 minutes, reaching speeds of more than 17,000 mph.
The mission proved that humans could survive and function in space, marking a major milestone in the Space Race. Gagarin’s successful flight made him an international figure overnight and accelerated efforts by the United States to send astronauts into orbit. His achievement remains one of the most important moments in the history of space exploration.
Health & Wellness
Pharma of the Future (Northwestern Magazine)
Researchers are developing implantable “living pharmacies” that use engineered cells inside the body to produce and deliver drugs on demand, potentially improving adherence and allowing treatments to be adjusted in real time. By combining biology with electronics, these devices could treat conditions like cancer, diabetes, and sleep disorders while opening the door to more personalized and automated care. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – 4/10/26 – Chaotic Headlines And What Matters Most
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. Hormuz remained closed this week but markets are working very hard to look past that fact given the huge surge in stocks and drop in energy futures. We go through the week’s chaotic headlines in detail, but keep our eye on other equity market drivers as well: economic data in the US and abroad, risk premiums (and return potential) offered by US stocks and bonds, the very strong performance of emerging markets, and the inflation outlook including the critical question of whether inflation expectations will remain anchored amidst this latest shock to consumer prices.
Can Forgotten Biotech Break Out?
After a 50%+ run from lows last April through highs in mid-January, the Biotech group has been trending sideways over the last few months.
Biotech hasn’t garnered much attention lately, with all the coverage of the Iran War and the AI Doom trade that’s been taking down software stocks even as AI infrastructure stocks continue to surge.
Below is a look at the iShares Biotech ETF (IBB), both recently (last 12 months) and over the long-term (since 2010). What we see is a group trading sideways right now at a key inflection point.
In the short-term, IBB has just managed to re-take its 50-day moving average, but it needs to break out to new highs to resume the uptrend that was in place last year.
Looking longer term, IBB’s rally in the last year ran out of steam at the same level it stopped at back in late 2021 before the broader market entered a nasty bear market.
Putting the short-term and long-term together, if Biotech manages to break out to new highs at some point this year, it would clear a significant resistance hurdle and open the door up for another big leg higher.
If new highs can’t be made soon, the double tops from earlier this year and late 2021 will loom large in the minds of traders.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/10/26
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“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.” – Jason Zweig
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While the S&P 500 still sits 2.8% below all-time highs, both the Dow Transports and Philadelphia Semiconductor index — two groups seen as “leading” indicators — hit new all-time highs yesterday. The charts below show the breakouts to new highs for these two closely-followed areas of the market.
US equity futures are trading slightly higher this morning as we look to close out the week with five days of gains (and extend the daily win streak to eight dating back to last Tuesday).
Below is a look at the swing we’ve seen from oversold levels last week to back above the 50-DMA for most key US index ETFs:
While we’ve seen a nice bounce, price charts for ETFs like SPY, QQQ, and IWM still have work to do to break out of the choppy action seen for many months now.
Yesterday was another painful day for the software group, which fell another 3.9% as algos look to exit or short anything at risk of AI obsolescence.
As shown below, IGV is now down 4.8% since Tuesday’s close when the US/Iran ceasefire was announced versus a gain of 3.7% for the broader Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).
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The Closer – Cybersecurity, NIPA Shifts, PCE – 4/9/26
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- Despite the recent pullback, Brent crude oil remains on pace for $200/barrel by late May.
- Alongside software stocks, cybersecurity names have also gotten hit hard in the past few months, but there have been a handful of outperformers.
- Tech related categories for investment continue to surge as a share of GDP.
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Are the Semis and Transports Leading the Market to New Highs?
For generations of market watchers, the Dow Jones Transportation Index was considered the ultimate leading indicator for the broader market. The idea being that if goods were moving, the economy was humming.
For today’s digital economy, the “leading” torch has been handed to the Semis group, which we labeled “the Transports of the 21st century” years ago.
The logic is the same: semiconductors are the essential inputs that power modern economic activity, from smartphones to data centers to automobiles.
When both of these bellwether indices are breaking out to new all-time highs simultaneously, as they are right now, it’s a signal worth paying attention to.
What makes the current setup particularly compelling is that the S&P 500 has not yet confirmed the move, still sitting roughly 2.5% below its own all-time high.
Historically, when leading indicators like the Transports and Semis are making new highs while the broader market lags, it has been viewed as a sign that the index is being pulled higher, not pushed.
The charts for Transports and Semis above show clean breakouts, with the 50-day moving average trending solidly higher beneath price. That is the kind of technical foundation that tends to give bulls confidence.
If the S&P 500 closes the gap as well and confirms with its own breakout, the weight of the evidence will be difficult to argue with.
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Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report – April 2026
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Chart of the Day: Doom Dispersion
The Rally Around the World
In yesterday’s Chart of the Day, we highlighted how the S&P 500 moved back above both its 50- and 200-DMAs in the same session. We also highlighted how even though the US based index saw strong performance, that was at the low end of returns relative to two dozen international markets. In the table below, we show the performance of 25 global stock market ETFs yesterday versus their performance from the start of the Iran War through Tuesday’s close.
As shown, there was only one country, Norway (ENOR), that traded lower yesterday, as it fell nearly 2%. However, ENOR entered yesterday at 52-week highs with a high single digit percentage gain over the prior month and change. That compares to sizable losses for nearly every other country.
As for the rest of the pack, most regions saw gains yesterday in the range of 3% to 6%. South Korean equities (EWY) were the top performer, rallying double-digits on the day.
As may be evident in the table above, the big move yesterday resulted in many of these 25 stock markets moving back above their 50-DMAs. In fact, over three-quarters of these ETFs closed above their 50-DMAs yesterday compared to a low of only 4% (or a single ETF: ENOR) in the final days of March. That is the highest share of those 25 country ETFs trading above their 50-DMAs since the first trading day of March. Not only are these country ETFs above their 50-DMAs, but but nine of them are now overbought too with a handful of others, such as Italy (EWI), teetering on joining them in overbought territory.
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