Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/29/25 – Another Quiet Morning
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If you’ve made your own hell, then only you have the power to escape it.” – Willie Nelson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
April was on track for being one of the most volatile months on record, but it’s closing out on a quiet note. While yesterday’s move in the S&P 500 was the smallest since the S&P 500 peak, equity futures are even quieter this morning as they indicate an unchanged market at the open. It’s been a busy overnight session for earnings, but the big reports from Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Meta (META) are still to come.
The big economic reports of the morning will be Consumer Confidence and JOLTS. The former is an April number, so it will give us a good idea of how the month’s craziness has impacted sentiment.
Here’s something you don’t see often. The S&P 500 Technology sector ETF (XLK) is up nearly 11% over the last five trading days, but it’s still down over 10% YTD and more than 1% below its 50-day moving average (DMA). Like Tech, the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) has rallied more than 9% and is still down nearly 12% YTD and more than 1% below its 50-DMA.
More broadly, it’s been a phenomenal five trading days for US equities- except for the Consumer Staples sector (XLP). Don’t shed too many tears for Consumer Staples, though, it’s still up 2.5% YTD. For the most part, the sector has done exactly what it’s supposed to do: underperform when the market rallies and outperform when the market declines. Putting it all together, while five sectors have rallied over 5% in the last week, and all but one have essentially rallied at least 3%, ten out of eleven sectors remain below their 50-day moving average, and all eleven sectors remain in neutral territory.
The Closer – Earnings, Borrowing Plans, Short of Targets – 4/28/25
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with an earnings recap (page 1) followed by a dive into the quarterly borrowing plans for the Treasury (page 2). Next, we check up on the charts of the mega caps (page 3) followed by a look into the most heavily shorted stocks (page 4) and those that are trading furthest below price targets (page 5). We then update our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 6) and finish with an update on the latest positioning data (pages 7 and 8).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Chart of the Day: Historic Turnaround Months + May-Day
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Boston Beer (SAM)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Boston Beer’s (SAM) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Boston Beer (SAM) is one of the largest craft brewers in the US, best known for its Samuel Adams beers, Twisted Tea hard iced teas, Truly hard seltzers, Angry Orchard ciders, and newer products like Sun Cruiser and Hard Mountain Dew. The company serves as a bellwether for evolving alcohol trends in the US among light beer traditionalists to younger drinkers looking for flavored, high-ABV options. In Q1, shipments were up 5.3% despite a 1% dip in depletions, driven by strong wholesaler demand for new products like Sun Cruiser and Truly Unruly. Twisted Tea held over 86% of the hard tea market but slowed from past growth as new competitors crowded shelf space. Inflation, weakening beer demand, and $20–$30M in expected 2025 tariff costs (mainly from aluminum and Chinese POS materials) weighed on the company’s outlook. Management remains optimistic, betting on distribution gains, summer marketing, and portfolio innovation to drive a second-half rebound. The stock was up as much as 7.6% after-hours on 4/24 but gave up most of the gains on 4/25 after beating expectations…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for SAM by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Domino’s Pizza’s (DPZ) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) is one of the world’s largest pizza delivery and carryout companies, operating over 20,000 stores across the US and over 90 international markets. The company gives valuable insight into consumer value-seeking behavior and the competitive dynamics of the quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry. DPZ grew global retail sales by 4.7% year/year despite ongoing macro headwinds, benefiting from international strength (+8.2%) and US net store growth (+17 stores). The launch of Parmesan Stuffed Crust is performing to expectations and is seen as a long-term sales driver. Domino’s will roll out its DoorDash partnership nationally by mid-2025, expected to double the size of its aggregator channel relative to Uber Eats with ~50% incrementality. Consumer pressure, especially among low-income groups, weighed on traffic. Management reiterated full-year guidance, projecting 3% US same-store sales growth weighted to the second half, and remains confident in 175 net new US store openings for 2025. On mixed results, DPZ opened 2.4% lower on 4/28 but rallied intraday to erase the loss…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for DPZ by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/28/25 – A Quiet Start
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“As sure as time, history is repeating itself, and as sure as man is man, history is the last place he’ll look for his lessons.” – Harper Lee
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After five straight weeks where the market has essentially gapped down 1% or more at the open to start a week, futures are surprisingly muted this morning, with the S&P 500 indicated to open fractionally lower (~0.10%). The subdued tone comes as there has been no change to the trade situation between the US and any of its trading partners. You can say no news is good news, but the longer we go with no news, the more anxious the market will become. In Europe, stocks are starting the week positively with the STOXX 600 up nearly half a percent, Germany and France lead the way higher, while Spain and Italy lag.
This will be an important week for economic and earnings-related news outside of trade-related news. On the earnings front, a third of the companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report, including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Meta (META). The pace of economic data will be just as busy. While Dallas Fed is the only report on the calendar today, on Tuesday, we’ll get Consumer Confidence for April and JOLTS for March. On Wednesday, we’ll get ADP for April and the first read of Q1 GDP, followed by jobless claims and April Manufacturing PMI for April on Thursday. Then Friday, the week closes out with the April Employment report. After all these reports, we should have a much better read on how all the uncertainty over trade has impacted the economy.
After rallying as much as 12.4% month to date and rising above $3,500 per ounce last week, gold prices have significantly pulled back in the last four trading days. This morning, the price is little changed, trading right around $3,300 per ounce. While still up nearly 6% for the month, the magnitude of the gain has been more than cut in half.
When gold last hit a 52-week high on Tuesday (4/22), it pulled back sharply lower intraday and finished the day more than 2.5% from its intraday high. Since the mid-1970s, it was just the 33rd time that its price hit a 52-week high but finished the day down more than 2.5% from the intraday high. The chart below shows every prior occurrence with a red dot. While these types of reversals were evident at prior peaks, they were also scattered throughout longer-term uptrends. The most recent occurrence before last week was almost exactly a year earlier in mid-April of last year, and we all know what gold has done since then. In other words, it’s hard to put too much significance into any one day’s reversal.
Looking at gold’s performance relative to other commodities, it certainly has been doing its own thing lately. Year to date, both gold ETFs are up over 25% and finished the week more than 8% above their 50-day moving average after pulling back from extreme overbought levels. Most other commodity-related ETFs are either down or up by mid-single-digit percentages. Gold has its reasons to rally relative to other commodities, but as it rallied above $3,500 last week, its price became extremely extended.
Brunch Reads – 4/27/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Constitutional Crisis: On April 27, 1861, as the United States teetered on the edge of disunion, President Abraham Lincoln made one of the most controversial decisions in American constitutional history: he suspended the writ of habeas corpus. Habeas Corpus is a legal safeguard against arbitrary imprisonment, allowing detainees to challenge the legality of their detention before a court. It is enshrined in Article I, Section 9 of the Constitution, which states the writ “shall not be suspended, unless when in cases of rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it.”
Facing the secession of Southern states and the outbreak of the Civil War, Lincoln authorized military commanders to arrest and detain individuals without trial in areas deemed critical to Union security, particularly in border states like Maryland. One of the most famous cases involved John Merryman, a Maryland state legislator arrested for suspected Confederate sympathies. When Supreme Court Chief Justice Roger Taney ruled that Lincoln had overstepped his authority, Lincoln simply ignored the decision, asserting that extraordinary circumstances justified extraordinary powers.
The suspension lasted throughout much of the war, especially in places under martial law. Civil liberties were suppressed, dissenters and draft resisters were jailed, and press freedom was constrained. Lincoln defended the move as a grim necessity to preserve the Union: “Are all the laws but one to go unexecuted, and the government itself go to pieces, lest that one be violated?”
Economic Trends
NY Petco selling live egg-laying female chicks for $5.99 a pop in new ‘pilot program’ as egg price crisis continues (New York Post)
Hoping to cash in on people trying to beat high egg prices, Petco just launched a wild pilot program selling $5.99 egg-laying chicks at a handful of stores. But it’s already causing a major uproar. Animal activists say clueless buyers are dumping the birds before they even lay an egg, and warn that proper care costs way more than most people realize, with abandoned chicks often dying fast without serious support. [Link]
Continue reading our weekly Brunch Reads linkfest by logging in if you’re already a member or signing up for a trial to one of our two membership levels shown below! You can cancel at any time.
The Bespoke Report — We’ll Take It — 4/25/25
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we break down the market’s action this week and what it might portend for the future. Give it a read!
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Alphabet (GOOGL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Alphabet (GOOGL) is the parent company of Google and a global leader in digital advertising, search, cloud computing, AI, and hardware. Its ecosystem, including Search, YouTube, Android, Chrome, Gmail, and Google Cloud, serves billions of users and millions of businesses across the globe. The company’s technological breadth is unmatched, with deep investments in artificial intelligence, infrastructure (including subsea cables and custom chips), autonomous driving (Waymo), and life sciences (Verily). GOOGL posted 12% YoY revenue growth to $90.2B, driven by broad-based strength in Search, YouTube, and Cloud. The company spotlighted rapid AI innovation with Gemini 2.5 Pro and Flash models, and integration of AI across all 15 major products. Google Cloud revenue jumped 28%, aided by demand for AI agents and enterprise tools. AI Overviews now reaches 1.5B users monthly, helping boost commercial queries, while YouTube Shorts views grew over 20%. CapEx hit $17.2B in Q1, with a full-year target of $75B largely focused on infrastructure. Waymo scaled to 250K paid rides per week. Management also noted macro sensitivity, especially in APAC ad trends. The stock opened 3.7% higher on 4/25 after posting results that outpaced expectations…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for GOOGL by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: VeriSign (VRSN)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers VeriSign’s (VRSN) Q1 2025 earnings call.
VeriSign (VRSN) operates the authoritative registry for .com and .net domain names, making it a critical infrastructure provider for global internet stability and security. The company plays a behind-the-scenes but essential role in ensuring domain name availability, routing, and uptime for millions of websites and digital services. Its highly reliable infrastructure gives investors insight into broader internet activity and global digital trends, especially domain usage and demand across regions like the US, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific. VRSN delivered a solid quarter, supported by 770,000 net new domain registrations and an expected renewal rate of 75.3%, up from 74.1% a year ago. The domain name base grew to 169.8 million, with trends strengthening across all major regions. The company raised its 2025 outlook, now expecting domain growth between -0.7% and +0.9%, citing improved registrar activity and early traction from new marketing programs. However, management noted continued macro uncertainty and maintained a cautious stance. Verisign also reaffirmed its intent to launch the .web domain pending resolution of ongoing legal disputes. VRSN shares rallied about 9% on 4/25 after posting mixed results and raising guidance…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for VRSN by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: