B.I.G. Tips – Death by Amazon – 5/21/25
In this note we update performance of our “Death By Amazon” and “Amazon Survivors” indices. Our “Death By Amazon” index has underperformed pretty dramatically since 2023 after broadly keeping up with the market as a whole over the prior 10 years. As for our “Amazon Survivors” index, it’s lagged the market somewhat so far this year but not dramatically.
Both of these indices outperformed dramatically in 2020 and 2021 but then gave all that boom back. It’s notable that these indices track stocks that are heavily exposed to tariffs given the general prevalence of Chinese-sourced goods in the consumer basket. That said, the impact isn’t uniform, with everything from used auto dealers to groceries seeing much less exposure to imports from China than the rest of the basket.
Bespoke publishes the “Death By Amazon” and “Amazon Survivors” Indices as a way to track performance of the companies most affected by the rise of AMZN. Neither index represents investment returns of an actual investment portfolio. When initially constructed, companies in the “Death By Amazon” index had to be direct retailers with a limited online presence (or core business based on physical retailing locations), a member of either the Retail industry of the S&P 1500 Index or a member of the S&P Retail Select Index, and rely on third party brands. We view these attributes as the best expression of AMZN’s threat to traditional retail. The “Amazon Survivors” index is designed to track the performance of companies which have some sort of defense against Amazon, selling goods not suited to mass e-commerce, operating e-commerce platforms of their own, or selling their own brands consumers will focus on instead of who is selling them. The indices are equally weighted, rebalanced monthly, and presented in total return terms.
To see how the two indices have been performing lately and view the full list of stocks that make up the indices, please read our newest report on the subject available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members.
To unlock our “Death By Amazon” and “Amazon Survivors” indices, login or start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Target (TGT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Target’s (TGT) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Target (TGT) is one of the largest general merchandise retailers in the US, operating nearly 2,000 stores and an e-commerce platform. TGT offers a broad assortment across apparel, home goods, beauty, food, and essentials, often at trend-forward design and affordable prices. Its “stores-as-hubs” model makes TGT a destination for in-store shopping, and it’s a backbone of its digital fulfillment network. TGT faced a tough quarter as comparable sales fell 3.8% and traffic declined 2.4%, pressured by soft discretionary spending and five months of falling consumer confidence. Despite the challenges, strength emerged in same-day services (+36%) and seasonal promotions (Valentine’s Day, Easter). Executives highlighted Target Circle 360 growth, momentum in Roundel and Target Plus, and progress on shrink reduction. A newly formed Enterprise Acceleration Office will drive faster decision-making and AI integration. With tariffs looming, TGT is diversifying its sourcing to avoid price hikes, while continuing to invest in store remodels and tech infrastructure. The stock opened 6.7% lower on 5/21% after missing EPS and revenue estimates…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for TGT by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Wix.com (WIX)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Wix.com’s (WIX) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Wix.com (WIX) is a cloud-based platform that allows users ranging from entrepreneurs and freelancers to creative professionals and large agencies to create, manage, and grow an online presence. Known for democratizing website building, WIX has expanded its ecosystem to include e-commerce tools, booking systems, and AI-powered design and automation capabilities. WIX reported 12% YoY bookings growth to $511M and revenue up 13% to $474M. The company launched two major AI products: Wixel, a standalone visual design platform integrated into Microsoft Copilot, and Astro, an embedded AI assistant aimed at improving user engagement. The Q1 cohort outperformed expectations, generating $36M in bookings (a 12% YoY increase) driven by strong conversion, product upgrades, and increased adoption of high-tier packages. Partners revenue grew 24% YoY, and transaction revenue rose 19% as more merchants adopted Wix Payments. The stock fell as much as 14.4% on 5/21 after posting weaker-than-expected results…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for WIX by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Chart of the Day – Bitcoin Back to the Highs
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/21/25 – No Improvement in Home Improvement
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Zeroing in on the best sectors or the best regions of the world is great, but zeroing in on the very best individual stocks is the key to making truly impressive profits.” – Lou Navellier
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Below is a link to our recent appearance on Lou Navellier’s show — Market Buzz — where we had a nice conversation about stocks! Please watch when you have a chance.
It’s not a good day to be a bull this morning as S&P 500 futures are down about 0.50%. It was a steady move lower right up until around about 6:30 AM Eastern when there was some stabilization and even a modest bounce.
There’s not much in the way of catalysts driving the market weakness, but yields are higher as the 30-year treasury ticks up above 5% while the 10-year yield jumps back above 4.5%. As Republicans look to pass the Big Beautiful Bill, there has been some headway made in the SALT Cap negotiations with Speaker Johnson confirming that the cap will be lifted to $40,000, and the deficit implications of that agreement could be helping to drive the move higher in yields.
The economic calendar is light once again today, and in terms of earnings reports, since the close yesterday, some of the more notable reports have come from Palo Alto (PANW), Toll Brothers (TOL), Lowe’s (LOW), and Target (TGT).
After missing EPS forecasts yesterday, Home Depot (HD) broke a streak of 19 straight quarters of exceeding bottom-line forecasts, which was the longest streak of EPS beats for the stock since at least 2001. This morning, HD’s largest competitor, Lowe’s (LOW), reported earnings, and unlike HD, it was able to beat EPS forecast and extended its record streak of EPS beats to 24. That’s six years!
The chart below shows historical streaks of EPS beats for both stocks, and while they’re in identical industries, their streaks of earnings beats haven’t followed the same trajectories. While the current period has seen a longer streak of EPS beats for LOW, over the last 20+ years, HD has done a better job of managing expectations and then beating them, as evidenced by the fact that it has seen several more extended streaks of EPS beats than LOW.
Just because both stocks have done a good job of beating EPS forecasts over the last five years, doesn’t mean it has translated into their stock prices. While both stocks are higher now than they were five years ago, they have both been dead money for the last 3+ years. Coming out of the COVID lows, both stocks rallied sharply through late 2021, but then as the Fed started talking about rate hikes, they cratered and have been trading sideways ever since. While LOW’s managed to make a new high late last year, it has pulled back since then and is back below its 2021 high.
The culprit behind the relative weakness in both stocks has been rising interest rates. The chart below shows the 10-year yield since the start of 2020, and the peak in both stocks came right before the 10-year yield started to surge in early 2022. While yields have essentially been sideways for the last 2+ years, until yields start to move lower, it will be hard for both home-improvement stocks to move higher. Think of it as a scale. For one side to go up, the other has to go down.
The Closer – Loss of AAA, S&P Addition, Canada – 5/20/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with further analysis into the US debt downgrade (page 1) followed by a look at S&P 500 additions (page 2). Next we dive into the rally in Canadian stocks (page 3) and the latest CPI data for that country (page 4). We close out with a review of the latest regional Fed data (page 5).
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Bespoke’s Paul Hickey on with Lou Navellier
Below is a link to our recent appearance on Lou Navellier’s show — Market Buzz — where we had a nice conversation about stocks! Please watch when you have a chance.
B.I.G. Tips – Earnings Triple Plays Recap: Q1 2025
During the just-completed Q1 2025 earnings reporting period, there were a total of 78 earnings triple plays out of just under 2,000 individual quarterly earnings reports from US-listed stocks. That’s 16 more than the 62 triple plays we saw during the prior earnings reporting period.
What is a triple play? When a stock reports quarterly earnings, it registers a “triple play” when it beats analyst EPS estimates, beats analyst revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance. We coined the term back in the mid-2000s, and you can read more about it at Investopedia.com. We consider triple plays to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we’re constantly finding new long-term opportunities from this basket of names each quarter. You can track the newest earnings triple plays on a daily basis at our Triple Plays page if you’re a Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional member. To read our newest report and see some of the triple plays with intriguing charts at the moment, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium!
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Viking (VIK)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Viking’s (VIK) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Viking (VIK) is a global cruise operator through its river, ocean, and expedition cruises, primarily catering to affluent, culturally curious travelers aged 55 and older. Known for its minimalist Scandinavian design and immersive itineraries, Viking operates a fleet of over 90 vessels that sail in Europe, Asia, North America, and Antarctica. Viking provides valuable insight into the behavior of high-net-worth leisure consumers and demand trends in experiential travel. VIK reported nearly $900 million in revenue (+24.9% YoY) and net yields up 7.1%, driven by 14.9% capacity growth and strong occupancy in both river and ocean segments. Bookings remain strong, with 92% of 2025 capacity sold and 37% of 2026 already booked. Management emphasized its dynamic pricing strategy, with no use of promotions despite macro uncertainty. The company touted its loyal, financially stable customer base, long booking windows, and resilience during economic softening. VIK also announced the Viking Libra, the world’s first hydrogen-powered cruise ship. Despite better-than-expected results, VIK shares fell as much as 6.8% on 5/20 after Q1 passenger numbers failed to meet analysts’ mark…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for VIK by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Home Depot (HD)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Home Depot’s (HD) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Home Depot (HD) is the world’s largest home improvement retailer, operating over 2,300 stores across North America and serving both do-it-yourself (DIY) homeowners and professional contractors. It sells building materials, tools, appliances, garden products, and home services. With a $1 trillion addressable market and an aging housing stock (55% of homes are over 40 years old), Home Depot is positioned as a critical player in long-term renovation and maintenance cycles. HD’s Q1 sales rose 9.4% to $39.9B, with US comps up 0.2%. However, large remodels remain muted as high interest rates weigh on financing. Management estimates a $50B shortfall in deferred home improvement spend. Engagement in smaller projects remains strong, aided by favorable weather in March and April. Pro sales outpaced DIY, and SRS continues to beat expectations, especially in credit onboarding. HD reaffirmed guidance despite tariff concerns, citing supply chain diversification, and no single non-US country will account for more than 10% of purchases in 12 months. Digital tools like Magic Apron and AI-powered associate support continue gaining traction. After posting mixed results, HD shares slid into the red on 5/20 after starting 2% higher…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for HD by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: