Today we published our most recent Global Macro Dashboard which provides a high level summary of 22 major economies. Taking a look at those same countries’ stock markets via US traded ETFs, 2023 has seen broad rebounds in equity prices across the globe. At the moment, the average country ETF is 4.55% away from a 52-week high after posting a double-digit YTD gain. Based on developed and emerging countries, there has been some divergence.  Both last year and again this year, emerging market equities have seen modest outperformance relative to developed markets. That has also been the case in July with an average gain of 5.24% for EM countries versus a 2.85% rise for their developed market peers.  South Africa (EZA) is up the most month-to-date with a 10.2% gain, while France (EWQ) is up the least with a gain of just 13 bps so far in July.

From a technical perspective, the gains in emerging markets—proxied by the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)—have resulted in a move above resistance at some of the past year’s highs.  As shown below, earlier in the spring and again only a couple of weeks ago, EEM attempted to retest the levels from last summer unsuccessfully.  Today, EEM is back above those levels with the next resistance to watch being the January high at $42.50.

Read this month’s full Global Macro Dashboard report with a trial to Bespoke All Access.

Bespoke’s All Access research package is quick-hitting, actionable, and easily digestible. Bespoke’s unique data points and analysis help investors better visualize underlying market trends to ultimately make more informed investment decisions.

Our daily research consists of a pre-market note, a post-market note, and our Chart of the Day. These three daily reports are supplemented with additional research pieces covering ETFs and asset allocation trends, global macro analysis, earnings and conference call analysis, market breadth and internals, economic indicator databases, growth and dividend income stock baskets, and unique interactive trading tools.

Click here to sign up for a one-month trial to Bespoke All Access, or you can read even more about Bespoke All Access here.

In case you didn’t see it already, today’s report on Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board showed that consumers are more confident than they have been at any point in the last two years.  While there are still no shortage of negative macro headlines, with employment remaining strong, inflation easing, and the stock market in a bull, you can’t fault consumers for being more confident than they have been in recent history.

For some perspective on the current levels of consumer sentiment, the chart below shows historical readings of Consumer Confidence with red dots showing each time that the monthly reading made a new two-year high.  As you can see, these types of readings aren’t rare, especially during prolonged economic expansions, and as a corollary to the saying that it’s often darkest before the dawn, sentiment tends to be brightest right up until sunset.

In each of the prior periods where sentiment hit a two-year high just before the economy started to roll over, it was preceded by multiple occurrences of sentiment hitting new two-year highs.  If we further filter out occurrences for periods when sentiment hit a two-year high for the first time in at least a year, the picture looks a lot different. In this case, there was never an occurrence just as the economy was on the verge of a recession, and most of them tended to occur early in the cycle rather than late.  Interestingly enough, with all the debate over whether or not the economy is in a recession or not, the pattern of Consumer Confidence in the current period looks very similar to the pattern during the double-dip recession of the early 1980s.  Like the current period, back then there was a sharp drop and subsequent sharp rebound in confidence followed by another decline that failed to make a lower low.  The only difference this time around is that following the initial COVID recession of 2020, there wasn’t another recession in the next two years – at least not an officially declared recession.

Have you tried Bespoke All Access yet?

Bespoke’s All Access research package is quick-hitting, actionable, and easily digestible. Bespoke’s unique data points and analysis help investors better visualize underlying market trends to ultimately make more informed investment decisions.

Our daily research consists of a pre-market note, a post-market note, and our Chart of the Day. These three daily reports are supplemented with additional research pieces covering ETFs and asset allocation trends, global macro analysis, earnings and conference call analysis, market breadth and internals, economic indicator databases, growth and dividend income stock baskets, and unique interactive trading tools.

Click here to sign up for a one-month trial to Bespoke All Access, or you can read even more about Bespoke All Access here.

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium with a 30-day trial!

On This Day in History:

Typewriters to Terminators: On this day in 1829, William Austin Burt patents America’s first typographer (typewriter). Burt’s invention enabled operators to complete more work than half a dozen clerks with a pen, and the work was better. The benefits of the typewriter’s invention sound eerily like the most recent technological innovation taking the world by storm, ChatGPT. [link]

Technology and Innovation

To Help Cool a Hot Planet, the Whitest of White Coats (New York Times)
Purdue University professor Dr. Xiulin Ruan has developed the world’s whitest paint. The original paint reflected 95% of the sun’s rays, and the new and improved formula reflects 98% of the sun’s rays. Scientists predict that covering 1-2% of the Earth’s surface with this paint will cause Earth to emit more heat than it absorbs and cooling global temperatures in the process. [link]

Groundbreaking Cement-Free Concrete Debuts in Seattle (Greek Reporter)
C-Create Technologies has used its cement-free concrete on a commercial building project in Seattle claiming the new mixture is more environmentally friendly. The innovation is on par or beats the standard Portland cement concrete in the key concrete measures. For every ton of C-Crete binder, CO2 emissions are reduced by 1 ton. Could this be the building material of the future? [link]

How PinkyDoll Mesmerized the Internet With ‘Ice Cream So Good’ (New York Times)
TikTok influencer PinkyDoll’s rise to fame has come with the latest trend on Tik Tok. The 27-year-old woman live streams on her Tik Tok account and reacts to digital gifts fans send her. PinkyDoll is the latest example of an NPC (Non-Player Character) streamer. [link]

Energy and Mining

‘Breakthrough’ geothermal tech produces 3.5 megawatts of carbon-free power
An energy startup (Fevro) in Nevada claims it has achieved a breakthrough in geothermal technology that would enable 3.5 megawatts of electricity or enough to power over 2,500 homes at once. If the technology works as hoped, a site in Utah is expected to generate enough electricity to power 300,000 homes simultaneously, or a quarter of all the houses in the state.[link]

An Asteroid Loaded with $10 Quintillion Worth of Metals Edges Closer to US Reach (Yahoo Finance)
An asteroid located between Mars and Jupiter is the next target for NASA. The asteroid is said to contain vast amounts of gold, iron, and nickel ore with an estimated value of $10 quintillion. NASA is partnering with Space X to send a probe to the asteroid, giving Space X the right to mine the asteroid while NASA studies its origins. [link]

This Arkansas Town Could Become the Epicenter of a U.S. Lithium Boom (WSJ)
A once profitable oil town, Magnolia, Arkansas is on the brink of seeing business boom again. The city sits above a large salty water depository containing lithium ions that could be used for EV (Electric Vehicle) lithium batteries. Many large corporations are exploring the economics of extracting and processing the brine as EVs become more popular. [link]

Company Moves

Tesla’s Texas Factory Has Produced Its First Cybertruck (Engadget)
Tesla has completed the first construction of its new Cybertruck. The company expects to begin volume production of the Cybertruck at the beginning of 2024 in Texas and is planning a Cybertruck delivery event before the end of 2023. [link]

In-N-Out Locations in 5 States to Ban Employees From Wearing Face Masks: Memo (ABC News)
A new memo sent to In-N-Out employees in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Texas, and Utah outlined a policy that prohibits employees from wearing masks while on duty. Employees will need a proper medical note to wear a mask in-store and are required to wear an N-95 mask unless otherwise noted by the employee’s medical professional. [link]

Tornado Damages Pfizer Plant in North Carolina, Will “Likely Lead to Long-Term Shortages” of Medicine (CBS News)
This past week, an EF3 tornado ripped through Nash County, North Carolina, and consequently a major Pfizer production plant. The plant is said to produce anesthesia and nearly 25% of all sterile injectable medications used in hospitals around the country. Experts believe this will lead to a shortage while Pfizer relocates or rebuilds production. [link]

Economy

Fed Launches Long-Awaited Instant Payments Service, Modernizing System (Reuters)
The Federal Reserve is rolling out its new service FedNow to 41 banks and 15 service providers which allows customers to send and receive funds on a 24-7 basis in just seconds and free of charge. Analysts expect this service to save consumers billions, but fears have risen that it could facilitate faster outflows increasing the risks of bank runs and collapses. [link]

America Is Barreling Toward a Summer of Strikes (Bloomberg)
While the strikes in Hollywood attract the most headlines, work stoppages due to labor disputes have been surging.  “This will be the biggest moment of striking, really, since the 1970s.” The trend hasn’t just been confined to the US either. Cost of living increases are pushing workers in Europe and the UK to also walk the picket lines increasingly. [link]

Markets

This Little-Known Accounting Measure is Ringing an Economic Warning Bell (Marketplace)
Indiana University professor Messod Daniel Beneish created an accounting measure in the 1990s that seeks to detect the manipulation of balance sheets and earnings for corporations. The measure is called the M-score, and earlier this year reached its highest level in 40 years. Ahead of prior recessions, the M-score has also increased. [link]

Senators to Propose Ban on U.S. Lawmakers, Executive Branch Members Owning Stock (WSJ)
New bipartisan legislature has been introduced and would prohibit lawmakers and their aides from owning individual stocks. The measure would, however, allow them to own shares of mutual and index funds. The bill is widely supported by the American public but has met some resistance in Congress. [link]

Health

The End of Rapid Population Growth (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Last year, the global population surpassed 8 billion people, taking the population 47 years to double from the 4 billion number in 1975. The United Nations currently predicts the global population will peak around 10.5 billion people and then experience a decline. India is projected to become the most populous country this year. [link]

New Report from UNAIDS Shows That AIDS Can Be Ended By 2030 And Outlines the Path to Get There (UNAIDS)
Countries that have committed financial and political capital to combat the spread of AIDS are seeing tremendous results and could be on track for a global end to AIDS. However, some countries still do not have the proper resources and programs in place and have seen case rates rise in recent years. A clear path has been outlined through case studies, but implementing the necessary programs is the next challenge. [link]

Big Tech Goes Old School

Let’s All Start Leaving Voicemails Again! (WSJ)
In Apple’s latest iOS (iOS17), a new feature will be available to users: LiveVoicemail. The once ‘ancient’ concept could make a revival as users are now able to read a caller’s voicemail directly on the screen in real time and decide to answer the call or let the voicemail continue. This idea is good in theory but will require users to build the habit of leaving voicemails again in order to be beneficial. [link]

Google Restricting Internet Access to Some Employees to Reduce Cyberattack Risk (CNBC)
Google is rolling out a pilot program aimed at increasing the cybersecurity of its employees. The program will disable internet access for its employees and even disable the ability to run administrative commands like installing software. The program will allow employees to connect to Google products. This is one of Google’s many efforts to increase its cybersecurity amidst increasing cyber-attacks. [link]

Read Bespoke’s most actionable market research by joining Bespoke Premium today!  Get started here.

Have a great weekend!