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“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and uh… clever.” – David St. Hubbins, This is Spinal Tap

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.

In case you missed the segment last night on CNBC’s Last Call, here is a link (the only link available at the moment is on Twitter)

CNBC Last Call – 7/24/23

Based on where futures are trading now, the current Spinal Tap streak of eleven straight daily gains for the Dow is making a run for The Dirty Dozen.  The gains are just marginal at this point, though, so it wouldn’t take much for things to turn south. Like futures here in the US, European equities are higher this morning but just barely so, and that comes following news that the latest survey of banking from the ECB showed that corporate loan demand has plunged to record lows. Not only that, but Germany’s Ifo index which tracks sentiment towards the economy dropped for its third straight month after six straight gains to start the year. Part of the reason European equities have managed to rally off intraday lows despite the weak economic data is China.  Following reports of increased government stimulus in that country, Chinese stocks rallied more than 2%.

Here in the US this morning, the only reports of note are the Case Shiller housing numbers at 9 AM followed by the Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence reports at 10 AM. Consumer Confidence is expected to jump from 109.7 up to 112.0 while the Richmond Fed report is expected to weaken from an already negative reading of -7 to -10.

As just about everyone knows by now, the Dow’s eleven-day winning streak is the longest since 2017 and just the sixth streak of as long or longer of duration since WWII.  Just as eleven straight red spins on the roulette wheel would inevitably lead you to start betting on black thinking it was overdue, it’s natural to expect a pullback to even things out.  One thing worth pointing out, though, is that following each of the five prior eleven-day winning streaks, the Dow was higher three and six months later all five times.

While the Dow may have posted positive returns for eleven straight days now, not even one of its components has been higher for as many days.  The longest winning streak of the index’s 30 components has been in UnitedHealth (UNH) at seven days, followed by IBM and Goldman Sachs (GS) each with six.  Behind those three stocks, another three components have been up for five straight days.  On the downside, just three components have traded lower for two or more days, and the longest of those streaks has been American Express (AXP) at four days.

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