Chart of the Day – Streaming Stocks
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/14/24 – Sentiment Shifts
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“I know not all that may be coming, but be it what it will, I’ll go to it laughing.” – Herman Melville, Moby Dick
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Shares of Disney (DIS) spiked up about 9% in the pre-market after the release of better-than-expected earnings and a management outlook forecasting double-digit EPS growth over the next two years. The strength in DIS has helped to push futures to their morning highs, although the magnitude of the gains is modest. After yesterday’s inline CPI report, the headline PPI for October was right in line with expectations, although Core PPI was a tenth higher than expected. Initial jobless claims were 3K lower than expected, but continuing claims were in line with estimates.
Crude oil prices are modestly higher, but WTI remains below $70 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold is down another 1%, taking the total decline from its recent peak to more than 8%. Along with gold’s decline, silver is 2% lower, while copper is also down 1% for the fifth day in a row. Physical gold has been weak lately, but the rally in ‘digital gold‘ continues this morning as Bitcoin sits above $91,000 after briefly touching $93,000 in the last 24 hours.
The positive tone in the US counters a weak overnight session in Asia. After Japan’s Nikkei 225 had a modest gain to kick off the week on Monday, it’s been down three days in a row now after last night’s decline of 0.6%. Chinese stocks were even weaker during the session as the Shanghai Composite fell over 1.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.0%. Australian stocks bucked the negative trend even as October employment growth rose less than expected. European stocks have had a much more positive tone this morning as the STOXX 600 is up nearly 1% with German stocks leading the charge (+1.4%) despite an inline Q3 GDP report.
With stocks surging to record highs post-election, it should come as no surprise that investor sentiment has turned more optimistic, and that’s exactly what we saw in the latest numbers from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey. Over the last week, bullish sentiment spiked to 49.8% from 41.5%. While that’s a sizable jump, bullish sentiment remains below 50% and is lower than it was in September. Meanwhile, along with the rise in bullish sentiment, bearish sentiment also ticked slightly higher rising from 27.6% up to 28.3%.
What was most notable about this week’s numbers was the sharp drop in neutral sentiment which fell from 30.9% down to 21.8%. That’s the lowest level since the bear market lows in October 2022. With the election behind us, investors suddenly became a lot more decisive, and they shifted to the bullish camp.
The Closer – CPI, Real Wages, Discretionary – 11/13/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a rundown of the latest CPI data (page 1) in addition to a checkup on real wages and the inflation data’s implications for the Fed (page 2). After a review of the latest earnings (page 3) we show what stocks have done the best since the election (page 4).
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Airbnb (ABNB)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Airbnb’s (ABNB) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Airbnb (ABNB) connects travelers with hosts offering unique accommodations, from apartments and houses to boutique stays, and experiences in over 220 countries. Founded in 2008, Airbnb has reshaped the travel industry by providing travelers with an alternative to hotels, with over 8 million active listings worldwide. The platform serves individuals, families, and even business travelers seeking personalized, local, and affordable options, giving insight into regional travel trends, tourism dynamics, and consumer spending patterns. This quarter, ABNB, saw impressive demand growth, with nights and experiences booked reaching 123 million, a return to double-digit growth, boosting revenue by 10%. The Cohost Network, launched as part of Airbnb’s drive for high-quality hosting, saw over 20,000 applicants within weeks. Meanwhile, international expansion focused on underpenetrated markets like Japan and Brazil drove booking growth, with expansion markets doubling the growth rate of core markets. Affordability features, including upfront pricing and discounts, improved Airbnb’s competitiveness with hotels, as inflation pinches travelers’ budgets. Looking forward, Airbnb is preparing to diversify with new services launching in 2025, aiming to build out revenue streams beyond accommodations. ABNB shares fell 8.7% on 11/8 due to mixed results while the company continues to invest in future growth drivers…
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Zillow (ZG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Zillow’s (ZG) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Zillow (ZG) is a digital real estate marketplace that is changing how people buy, sell, rent, and finance homes. Known for its industry-leading technology, ZG provides users with detailed property information, advanced home search features, and end-to-end transaction services, from touring to financing. On this quarter’s conference call, ZG reported a 17% YoY revenue jump, as the rentals segment surged driven by a 38% rise in multifamily rentals. Mortgage revenue also grew an impressive 63%, backed by an 80% increase in loan originations. ZG’s real-time touring feature showed strong adoption, representing over 25% of user connections, and Zillow Showcase listings are selling faster and for higher prices. Despite affordability challenges in the housing market, Zillow projects Q4 revenue between $525 million and $540 million, reflecting steady momentum. On news of better-than-expected results, coupled with product upgrades and success, ZG shares traded 25% higher on 11/7…
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Restaurant Brands International (QSR)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Restaurant Brands International’s (QSR) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is a global quick-service restaurant powerhouse, owning iconic brands like Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs. Serving millions of customers daily across the US, Canada, and numerous international markets, QSR is known for delivering diverse, value-driven menus. In Q3, QSR acknowledged a tough macro environment but saw notable international growth, with Burger King leading in markets like Japan and Australia, offsetting weaker performance in China. Comparable sales rose 0.3%, while system-wide sales grew 3.2%. Tim Hortons drove 43% of QSR’s adjusted operating income, boosted by traffic growth and successful menu innovations like flatbread pizzas. Burger King’s US performance softened, yet initiatives like the “Addams Family” Whopper helped regain some ground. Popeyes saw a shift in strategy to meet demand for value offerings, while Firehouse Subs expanded with 49 new locations YoY. Results missed on the top and bottom lines this quarter, and the stock fell 2.6% in reqaction on 11/5…
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Arm (ARM)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Arm’s (ARM) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Arm (ARM) designs and licenses semiconductor intellectual property (IP) and processor architectures used in billions of devices worldwide, from smartphones to cloud data centers. Serving tech giants like Apple, NVIDIA, and Google, Arm’s widespread adoption is evidence of the evolution of digital infrastructure and emerging technology demands. This quarter, ARM reported a 23% YoY increase in royalty revenue, particularly from its v9 architecture in smartphones, which grew royalties by 40% despite modest industry shipment growth. ARM highlighted its expanding role in AI, cloud, and automotive, noting partnerships with Microsoft Azure and Google GCP (Google Cloud Platform), as well as automotive applications in ADAS (Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems) and IVI (In-Vehicle Infotainment) systems. The company also discussed demand for its Customized System Solutions (CSS) that allows clients to customize and integrate ARM’s IP into their chip designs, particularly in mobile, where CSS adoption could capture up to 50% market share. ARM shares were up 4% on 11/7 in reaction to the EPS and revenue beat…
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Uber (UBER)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers UBER’s (UBER) Q3 2024 earnings call.
Uber (UBER) is a global mobility platform offering ride-hailing, food delivery, freight, and business services in over 10,000 cities worldwide. With innovative ventures in autonomous vehicles, advertising, and logistics, Uber offers insights into changing consumer behaviors and urban mobility trends, serving both individual users and corporate clients through Uber for Business (U4B). In Q3, UBER reported record profitability, with gross bookings up 20% YoY. Key growth drivers included a 70% increase in Uber One memberships, an 80% rise in advertising revenue, and expanded mobility services in less dense markets. The company saw pressure from rising insurance costs in the US, though these increases are expected to moderate. UBER’s autonomous vehicle (AV) partnerships with companies like Waymo are also progressing, with planned expansions into Austin and Atlanta. The strong U4B growth, up 50%, also shows Uber’s traction in the corporate travel space. Despite better-than-expected results, UBER shares fell almost 10% on 10/31 because of gross bookings, although up, came in weaker-than-anticipated…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for UBER by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Chart of the Day – Bitcoin Clears $90,000
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/13/24 – And The Number Is…
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The punishment of every disordered mind is its own disorder.” – St Augustine
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Asian stocks closed with notable declines for the second day in a row, as Japan, India, and South Korea all fell at least 1%. However, China bucked the trend, with the Shanghai Composite rallying 0.5%. The region’s key data point was the October PPI in Japan, which rose 0.2% m/m and took the y/y reading up to 3.4%. Both readings were higher than expected.
In Europe, this morning’s trading remains much more subdued relative to Asia and the STOXX 600 is down a relatively modest 0.4%. News in the region has been on the quiet side as French Unemployment was right in line with expectations. In Germany, the country’s ECB governing council member Joachim Nagel warned that potential tariffs under the incoming Trump Administration could cut overall growth by 1%, warning that “If the new tariffs actually materialize, we could even slip into negative territory”.
With global markets trading lower, US futures have also seen a downside bias, and US Treasuries have caught a modest bid as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) trades modestly higher in the pre-market (0.36%). That does little, however, to put a dent into the 10.2% decline that the ETF has seen since mid-September shortly after the Harris-Trump Presidential debate when the President-elect’s odds in the betting markets bottomed out.
For this morning’s gain in TLT to have legs, this morning’s CPI report will need to cooperate, and we have seen less of that in recent months. While overall trends in inflation continue to move in the right direction, in recent months we have started to see an uptick in the number of higher-than-expected CPI reports.
Starting with headline CPI, after bottoming out at 1 late last year, the 12-month rolling total of higher-than-expected monthly readings has ratcheted up to 5. While that is well off the record-high readings of nine that we saw in 2022 and below the long-term average of 5.4, it’s still higher than it was.
Looking at core CPI, we’ve seen the same trend. After surging to a record high of 8 in October 2020, the 12-month rolling total of higher-than-expected core CPI prints dropped down as low as 2 earlier this year but has since rebounded back up to 5, and that’s higher than the long-term average of 4.8. In both cases, these rolling 12-month totals are nothing out of the ordinary, but if you want bonds to rally, you’re going to need the pace of higher-than-expected inflation prints to slow down.
