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“We all go Do, Re, Mi, but you’ve gotta find all the other notes yourself.” – Louis Armstrong
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Futures are mixed heading into the July jobs report, as positive earnings from Amazon.com (AMZN) and a lackluster reaction to Apple (AAPL) earnings offset each other. None of this will matter once the jobs report hits the tape, though, and after what has already been a tentative start to August, the market is hoping for a soft number.
Employment report Fridays are known for being important market days with heightened volatility. While the recent focus on inflation has relegated the monthly jobs to more of a backseat role, it’s still an important report. The chart below shows the rolling 12-month average of the S&P 500’s average daily percentage move (up or down) on Non-Farm Payroll report days going back to 2000. Exactly a year ago, the 12-month average was near a historical extreme on the low side as the S&P 500’s average daily move on employment report days had slid below 0.5%, but since then, we’ve seen a steady move higher. Back in June, the average daily move peaked at a post-COVID high of 1.3%, and while that seems high, there were other periods (early 2000s, during the Financial Crisis, and in early 2019) when the average daily move was even higher. As much as investors would like a nice quiet Friday heading into the weekend, history suggests otherwise.
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