The Closer – Securitized Losses, New Home Sales, Manufacturing – 5/23/24

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with commentary on commercial mortgage backed securities (page 1) followed by a rundown of the latest new home sales data (pages 2 and 3).  Next, we update our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite with the first three inputs (page 4) before closing with a 10 year TIPS recap (page 5).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season.  We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management.  These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results.  We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan

Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan

Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q1 2024 and Q4 2023 earnings reporting periods.

Q1 2024 Recaps:

NVIDIA: Q1 2025


Target: Q1 2024


Toll Brothers: Q2 2024


Palo Alto: Q3 2024


Walmart: Q1 2025


Home Depot: Q1 2024


Airbnb: Q1 2024


Uber: Q1 2024


Palantir: Q1 2024


Apple: Q2 2024


Shake Shack: Q1 2024


Generac: Q1 2024


Amazon: Q1 2024


Restaurant Brands Intl: Q1 2024


Microsoft: Q3 2024


Alphabet: Q1 2024


Northrop Grumman: Q1 2024


Chipotle: Q1 2024


Meta Platforms: Q1 2024


General Motors: Q1 2024


Tesla: Q1 2024


PepsiCo: Q1 2024


Cadence Design: Q1 2024


American Express: Q1 2024


Netflix: Q1 2024


D.R. Horton: Q2 2024


CSX: Q1 2024


Las Vegas Sands: Q1 2024


United Airlines: Q1 2024


ASML: Q1 2024


Big Banks (JPM, C, GS, BAC, MS): Q1 2024


Delta Air Lines: Q1 2024


Lamb Weston: Q3 2024


Conagra Brands: Q3 2024

RH: Q4 2023

FedEx: Q3 2024

Nike: Q3 2024

Lululemon: Q4 2023

General Mills: Q3 2024

Q4 2023 Recaps:

Williams Sonoma: Q4 2023
Nordstrom: Q4 2023
AeroVironment: Q3 2024
Aaron’s: Q4 2023
NVIDIA: Q4 2024
Walmart: Q4 2024
Home Depot: Q4 2023
Deere: Q4 2023
Generac: Q4 2023
Airbnb: Q4 2023
AutoNation: Q4 2023
Restaurant Brands International: Q4 2023
Shopify: Q4 2023
Cloudflare: Q4 2023
Hershey: Q4 2023
Disney: Q1 2024
Arm: Q3 2024
Uber: Q4 2023
Chipotle: Q4 2023
Spotify: Q4 2023
Simon Property: Q4 2023
Palantir: Q4 2023
Caterpillar: Q4 2023
McDonald’s: Q4 2023
Apple: Q1 2024
Amazon: Q4 2023
Meta Platforms: Q4 2023
Honeywell: Q4 2023
Old Dominion Freight: Q4 2023
Starbucks: Q1 2024
Microsoft: Q2 2024
United Parcel Service: Q4 2023
Alphabet: Q4 2023
Whirlpool: Q4 2023
Super Micro Computer: Q2 2024
Norfolk Southern: Q4 2023
American Express: Q4 2023
IBM: Q4 2023
Tesla: Q4 2023
ASML: Q2 2024
Texas Instruments: Q4 2023
Netflix: Q4 2023
RTX: Q4 2023
3M: Q4 2023
General Electric: Q4 2023
Schlumberger: Q4 2023
PPG Industries: Q4 2023
Taiwan Semiconductor: Q4 2023
H.B. Fuller: Q4 2023
Fastenal: Q4 2023
Big Banks (JPM, C, BAC, GS): Q4 2023
Delta Air Lines: Q4 2024
Constellation Brands: Q3 2024
Conagra Brands: Q2 2024
Lamb Weston: Q2 2024
Walgreens: Q1 2024
FedEx: Q2 2024
Costco: Q1 2024
Brown-Forman: Q2 2024
SentinelOne: Q3 2024

 

 

Recaps published during Q1 2024 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription.

The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 5/23/24

The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000.  To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis.  There were 8 changes to the list this week.

The Bespoke 50 is available with a Bespoke Premium subscription or a Bespoke Institutional subscription.  With Bespoke Premium, you’ll receive a number of daily market updates from us along with our weekly newsletter and a portion of our investor tools.  With Bespoke Institutional, you’ll receive everything that’s included with Premium plus additional daily macro analysis and more stock-specific research.

To see all 50 stocks that currently make up the Bespoke 50, simply start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.

The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results.  The Bespoke 50 is updated monthly on Thursdays unless otherwise noted.  Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning after publication.  Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price.  Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%.  Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.  The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities.  It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs.  As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities.  Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking.  Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/23/24 – Nothing Small About That

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“The single most important thing for any processor is getting adoption by software developers.” – Jensen Huang

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Positive earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) have US futures firmly higher this morning, and lower-than-expected jobless claims have also helped to keep things green.  Later we’ll get flash PMI readings from S&P at 9:45, New Home Sales at 10, and the KC Fed Manufacturing report at 11 AM.

If there’s anyone who would know about the accuracy of the quote above from NVDA CEO Jensen Huang, it would be Jensen Huang who is riding the wave of AI using his company’s chips to heights that could never have been imagined.  A big reason why is because of the Cuda software platform that accompanies those chips, and that was on full display in last night’s earnings report which blew the doors off expectations across just about every possible metric.

Given the magnitude of its beat relative to expectations in its reports last night, traders seemed surprised that Nvidia (NVDA) is up ‘only’ 7% in the pre-market. Whether that’s the ‘right’ reaction to the report, we’ll leave it to others to decide, but a 7% move is anything but small. First, let’s look at NVDA’s price chart. With the stock trading over $1,000 this morning, the stock is up 164% over the last year and 105% on a year-to-date basis. Nothing small about that.

Now let’s compare the change in NVDA’s market cap today to the market cap of individual S&P 500 companies.  As of yesterday’s close, the average market cap of S&P 500 components was just under $95 billion while the median market cap was just $35.1 billion.  The fact that the average market cap is 169% larger than the median shows how top-heavy the index is, but that’s a discussion for another time.  Based on pre-market trading, NVDA is poised to increase its market cap by $175.2 billion. That’s over $80 billion more than the average market cap and $140 billion more than the median market cap.  Not only that but that $175 billion in market cap would also rank as the 46th largest company in the entire S&P 500.  That’s larger than the market caps of companies like Caterpillar (CAT), American Express (AXP), Pfizer (PFE), and Morgan Stanley (MS).  Again, nothing small about that.

To continue reading the rest of today’s morning note, where you’ll find much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

B.I.G. Tips – Earnings Triple Plays Recap: Q1 2024

Today we published our newest Earnings Triple Plays report.  During the just-completed Q1 2024 earnings reporting period, there were a total of 98 earnings triple plays out of just under 2,000 individual quarterly earnings reports from US-listed stocks.  That’s 20 more than the 78 triple plays we saw during the prior earnings reporting period.

What is a triple play?  When a stock reports quarterly earnings, it registers a “triple play” when it beats analyst EPS estimates, beats analyst revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance.  We coined the term back in the mid-2000s, and you can read more about it at Investopedia.com.  We consider triple plays to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we’re constantly finding new long-term opportunities from this basket of names each quarter.  You can track the newest earnings triple plays on a daily basis at our Triple Plays page if you’re a Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional member.  To read our newest report and see some of the triple plays with intriguing charts at the moment, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium!

Earnings Reports Triple Plays

Fixed Income Weekly — 5/22/24

Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class?  Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week.  We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week.  We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea.  We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.

Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates.  You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes for the next two weeks!

Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/22/24 – Calm Seas and Fair Winds

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Volatility is a welcome creator of opportunity.” – Seth Klarman

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Futures are modestly lower this morning as Asian and European stocks trade lower for the second day in a row. One of the main drivers of weaker sentiment has been a hotter-than-expected inflation report in the UK. That has lowered the odds of a June rate cut from the BoE, and treasury yields are increasing in response. We’ll finally get an economic report this week with Existing Home Sales at 10 AM, but the main event everyone has been waiting for all week is Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report after the close.

Last Friday’s close of 11.99 in the VIX ended a streak of 1,137 trading days where the index closed above 12. As the index closed just a penny below 12, it was hardly a convincing end to that streak, but yesterday it closed below 12 more convincingly (11.84), so we wanted to highlight it. As shown in the chart below, while the VIX traded at lower levels on an intraday basis last December, it hasn’t closed below yesterday’s level since late November 2019.

The just-ended 1,137-day streak of closes above 12 ranks as the third longest of all time and just the fifth time the index went more than a year without closing below 12.  The most recent streak before the just-ended streak was also the shortest of the five lasting just 287 trading days and ending in late November 2019 not long before Covid. The longest streak was coming out of the dot-com bubble burst and lasted 2,257 trading days or the equivalent of just about 5 years.

With the VIX now so low, does the lack of volatility equal less opportunity going forward?  In today’s Morning Lineup, we looked into that question and provided a summary of how markets performed going forward. To read that analysis, login or signup today

To continue reading the rest of today’s morning note, where you’ll find much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

The Closer – Fedspeak & Returns, Single Family Starts, Credit – 5/21/24

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with an update on recent Fedspeak tones and what that implies for equity performance (page 1). We follow up with a look at Canadian CPI and new single family home starts (page 2).  We close out with a checkup on credit quality (page 3).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

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