Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/30/26 – We Made It!
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“We are seeing unprecedented internal and external demand for AI compute resources.” – Anat Ashkenazi, CFO, Alphabet
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It was called a make-or-break night for earnings, and the bulls made it through. While the four major hyperscalers aren’t moving in unison this morning, futures are higher with the Nasdaq leading the way, trading up 0.5% while the S&P 500 is up slightly less (+0.40%). Next on the list? Apple (AAPL) after the close. Treasury yields are moving lower after yesterday’s spike, while crude oil is finally seeing a pullback for a change, although WTI is still trading at $105 per barrel. Gold and Bitcoin are both trading up by about 1%.
International markets had a mixed session. Asian stocks declined pretty much across the board, with Japan down just over 1%, but the yen surged as the BoJ gave a final warning regarding yen intervention. In Europe, stocks are generally higher with the STOXX 600 trading up 0.7%, led higher by the FTSE 100, which is up over 1%.
It’s a busy day for economic data in the US on top of tons of earnings, and outside of Chicago PMI at 9:45, all of the reports hit the tape at 8:30. We don’t have time to go through all of them here, but the results were generally OK. GDP was weaker than expected, inflation data was generally inline, Personal Income was stronger than expected, and jobless claims were much better than expected as initial claims fell below 200k!
This morning on CNBC, in a conversation between Gary Gohn and Andrew Sorkin, the former highlighted several positive aspects of the US economy right now. In response, Sorkin asked if it was “right that the market is just ignoring what’s going on in the Middle East right now?” It may feel as though, with the market hitting new highs, that it is ignoring what’s going on in the Middle East, but the reality is that up until this point, it hasn’t had much of an impact on the US economy.
Over the last several weeks, we’ve cited numerous examples of economic data coming in better than expected, and last week’s Beige Book reinforced that trend. The Fed is even less concerned about economic weakness now than it was several weeks ago. This morning, jobless claims dropped below 200K! The latest round of earnings reports also reinforces this trend. Through yesterday, 78% of companies reporting exceeded EPS forecasts while 70% topped revenue estimates.
Those numbers are impressive but also backward-looking. What really stands out is the guidance. 7% of companies reporting have raised guidance this earnings season compared to just 4% that have lowered estimates. These companies see the same dire headlines regarding the Middle East each morning as you and I, but they also see what’s going on in their businesses. Things are strong enough that they feel confident in raising forecasts when they could easily use the uncertainty over the war and energy markets as an excuse to play it conservative.
Yesterday’s earnings headline was the hyperscalers and how companies representing around 18% of the S&P 500’s market cap reported in one after-hours session. It wasn’t just the S&P 500. Since the close yesterday, companies representing more than 20% of the Dow reported earnings, but the main drivers weren’t Microsoft (MSFT) or Amazon.com (AMZN). These two companies represent a combined 8.7% of the index, but the big kahuna reporting in the Dow is Caterpillar (CAT). Because the Dow is price-weighted and CAT has a share price above $800 (second largest behind Goldman Sachs), it alone has a weighting of more than 10% in the index.
With shares of CAT trading up $48 in response to earnings, its gain will push the Dow higher by 300 points this morning. Combining that with the loss in MSFT and the gains in Amazon.com (AMZN) and Merck (MRK), these four companies will have a net positive impact of 320 points at the open. While that works out to a gain of over 0.6% for the index this morning, it still won’t be enough to push the Dow to new highs, as it would still be 2.6% below its record high from earlier in the year.
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The Closer – Hyperscaler Capex, FOMC, Crude Surplus – 4/29/26
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- Hyperscaler capex continues to rise at an impressive rate of 80% YoY for the four mega-caps that reported earnings tonight.
- The FOMC rate decision had four dissents, an unusual level of discord not seen since 1992.
- There was a surplus in crude net exports for the first time on record last week.
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Mega-Cap’s Make or Break Moment
The market is anxiously awaiting the biggest news of the day, and it’s hard to argue that it’s the FOMC decision and Fed Chair Powell’s final meeting. Instead, the after-hours session of earnings is today’s huge event as reports from four of the seven Magnificent 7 members hit the tape: Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT). That is nearly $12 trillion in market cap, or 18.7% of the S&P 500’s total, reporting in one night.
Heading into quarterly results, this group has been on a solid run. Through today, Bloomberg’s equal-weight index tracking the Magnificent 7 members is up 20% versus the March 30th low. Given that rally, the index did in fact reach a new closing high on Monday, albeit that was only marginally above (3 bps) the previous peak on October 29th. As shown below, the lack of a meaningful breakout means the group is at an inflection point.
The MAG7 put in a triple top this past fall and early this year before the more prolonged selloff from late January through late last month. Considering the Magnificent 7 have hovered below those highs in the past couple of days, it is fair to say there has yet to be a meaningful breakout, and earnings will likely be a deciding factor in which way the chart breaks.
Looking under the hood, headed into earnings, the two strongest stocks among these names have been Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL). As we noted in the Chart of the Day today, those two stocks are up 30.2% and 28.2%, respectively, over the past month. Perhaps more importantly, those rallies are resulting in 52-week highs. In AMZN’s case, the breakout has been more significant, but since the initial breakout last Friday, AMZN has pulled back to support at prior highs. GOOGL, on the other hand, has been in a tighter range over the past few days without the same clear breakout as AMZN saw.
Also, more insight into the performance of mega-cap stocks following big rallies into their earnings report, make sure to check out today’s Chart of the Day.
Shifting over to the other major reports tonight, the charts of META and MSFT have been two of the weaker ones among the mega caps. As shown below, META has been in a stubborn sideways trend over the past year, with the 200-DMA acting as tough resistance more recently. Meanwhile, MSFT has much further to go to reach its 200-DMA, leaving it in no-man’s land between its 50- and 200-DMA. With that said, the recent stall has occurred right at the downtrend line off of the past several months’ peaks.
In other words, good results on earnings tonight could mean clear 52-week highs for AMZN and GOOGL, a move above the 200-DMA for META, and a broken downtrend from MSFT.
Following tonight’s reports, Apple (AAPL) will be the next mega-cap stock to watch as it reports tomorrow evening. As we noted in yesterday’s Wealth Management Report, AAPL has seen its relative strength go nowhere in the past few years. Paralleling that, the stock’s price has hardly gone anywhere in the past six months. As shown below, it is the most rangebound mega-cap name, although earnings come as it has made a run to the upper end of said range.
Finally, we would note that the next trillion-dollar market cap Tech stock to report after Apple will be NVIDIA (NVDA) at the end of earnings season. NVDA’s chart is more closely resembling the strength of GOOGL or AMZN, with a recent breakout sans meaningful follow-through.
Although it is not a Magnificent 7 member, the same could be said for another trillion-dollar semiconductor: Broadcom (AVGO). AVGO’s most recent report was in early March, with the next report slated for sometime in June. While the stock is up solidly since that prior report, its breakout almost appears to be a pump-fake with a sizable gap down below previous highs this week.
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Chart of the Day – Big Run, Big Expectations?
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/29/26 – Here Come the Hyperscalers
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“We live in a world defined by the rapid pace of technological change.” – Jerome Powell
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures point to a positive open driven mostly by tech stocks, and more specifically, AI-related stocks. The S&P 500 is indicated to open fractionally higher, while the Nasdaq is on pace to gain 0.3%. Treasury yields are modestly higher, while WTI crude oil adds another 3.5% to $103.4 per barrel. Yields and crude oil can’t keep rising like this without having at least some impact on equities.
In Asia, it was mostly a positive session, although Japan was closed. Chinese and South Korean stocks both rallied about 0.75%, although Australian stocks declined 0.2%. European stocks are lower across the board, with the STOXX 600 down 0.4% as UK stocks lead the way lower, down 0.8%.
It’s a relatively busy day for data, with Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30, along with Wholesale Inventories and Durable Goods. Then, at 2 PM, we’ll get the last FOMC statement under the Powell Fed, followed by his last press conference at 2:30. All of these events will play second fiddle, though, to earnings reports from the hyperscalers after the close.
There’s a Fed meeting today, but markets expect little to come out of it. This will be Fed Chair Powell’s last meeting leading the Fed, so there’s little reason to expect comments that have any potential to rock the boat. Rather, Powell will likely want to hand off a clean slate to the incoming likely Chair, Kevin Warsh. The main headline coming out of the press conference this afternoon will likely be news over whether Powell plans to stay on the committee once he steps down as chair.
Instead of the Fed, investors will be more focused on the upcoming batch of earnings reports after the close from hyperscalers Amazon.com (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT). Not only are these among the largest companies in the world, but they’re also spending more on AI than just about any other company in the world. It’s also an incredible juxtaposition to see all four of these companies that plan to collectively spend more than $650 billion on capex this year reporting today. Then tomorrow, Apple (AAPL), the third-largest company in the world, but whose cap ex is peanuts compared to its other mega-cap peers, reports tomorrow. They’re all enormous companies, but they couldn’t be more different in terms of their AI investments.
Below, we wanted to provide a snapshot of the recent earnings reports since the launch of ChatGPT for each of the four hyperscalers and how their stocks reacted to each report.
Starting with AMZN, the bar is somewhat high given its run lately, but the stock is coming off a quarter where it missed EPS forecasts for the first time in three years. Following its last five earnings reports, the stock has declined on its earnings reaction day.
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The Closer – Out of OPEC, Breadth Streak Snapped, Earnings – 4/28/26
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- The United Arab Emirates announced that they will be withdrawing from OPEC later this week; the U.A.E. is group’s third largest producer with the second largest spare capacity.
- The S&P 500 snapped a streak of four straight days of price and breadth moving in opposite directions.
- Conference Board and Case-Shiller data indicated housing activity has begun to bottom out.
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Coca-Cola (KO)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Coca-Cola’s (KO) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Coca-Cola (KO) is one of the world’s largest beverage companies, selling soft drinks, water, sports drinks, coffee, and tea across more than 200 countries through its bottling and distribution system. KO delivered 3% volume growth and 10% organic revenue growth, showing the business is getting back to a more even mix of selling more drinks and raising prices, after years of price-led gains. Management pointed to rising pressure on lower-income consumers, responding with affordability strategies like smaller packs and value offerings. Geopolitical risks, namely the Middle East conflict, hit March volumes, while APAC remains a long-term investment story, with negative price/mix as KO prioritizes market development over margins. Cost pressures in tea, coffee, and packaging persist, particularly for bottlers. Innovation, like Coke Zero Zero and Sprite variants, were highlighted, while digital packaging and World Cup activations were promoted as a way to convert engagement into transactions. On better-than-expected results, KO shares rallied more than 3% on 4/28…
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: UPS (UPS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers UPS’s (UPS) Q1 2026 earnings call.
UPS (UPS) is one of the world’s largest logistics companies, moving packages, freight, and critical goods across a global network of air and ground infrastructure. It serves businesses of all sizes, from small merchants to large enterprises, while focusing more on high-value segments like healthcare, B2B shipping, and time-sensitive logistics, offering insight into global trade flows, e-commerce trends, and industrial demand. UPS is in the middle of a major reset, deliberately cutting lower-margin Amazon and e-commerce volume (down about 500K packages per day) to prioritize profitability over scale, which drove an 8% drop in US volumes but a 6.5% increase in revenue per package. The company is aggressively cutting costs (targeting $3B in savings through 30,000 job reductions, 50 building closures, and automation) while repositioning toward SMB, B2B, and healthcare, which delivered a record $3B quarter and continued share gains. Internationally, trade lane disruptions (China-US down about 18%) and tariffs are reshaping flows, but UPS says it is capturing growth elsewhere. Management expects a second-half inflection as restructuring costs fade, though risks remain from weak consumer confidence and rising fuel costs tied to Middle East tensions. Due to the revenue decline, despite outpacing estimates, shares fell more than 4% on 4/28…
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Bespoke’s Wealth Management Report – April 2026
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Below are links to prior quarterly Wealth Management Reports: