See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“It takes a great deal of bravery to stand up to our enemies, but just as much to stand up to our friends.” – JK Rowling

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

New highs for the S&P 500 are increasingly coming up on the horizon as the S&P 500 is on pace to open within 0.5% of its record closing high in February, but between here and there, we have a slew of data and Fed speakers to get through. Leading up to those reports at 8:30 and 10, Treasury yields are fractionally lower, while crude oil and gold are fractionally higher, and the dollar is lower.

FedEx (FDX) reported earnings after the close on Tuesday, and despite better-than-expected EPS and sales, the stock fell 3.3% in reaction to its report on Wednesday. The table below shows how FDX has reacted to earnings over the last four years, and the results haven’t been positive. Over this period, this week’s report was only the third time FDX reported better-than-expected EPS and sales for the same quarter. While the company has reported better-than-expected EPS 10 times in the last 16 quarters, it has only exceeded sales forecasts six times. The company’s inability to consistently exceed expectations, particularly in terms of revenue, suggests that management has a significant problem in managing Wall Street’s expectations. It also appears that investors have become increasingly frustrated with the company, as the stock has now experienced four consecutive negative reactions to earnings.

The one-year price chart of FDX also doesn’t look good. Each of the red arrows below indicates when FDX reported earnings. Even outside of those four days, the stock has seen a steady slide lower, falling from over $300 to the low $200s. For years, FDX was considered a leading indicator for the economy as its transportation network was among the largest in the world. A slowdown in FDX’s business signaled a slowdown in the economy and vice versa. Given that logic, should investors be concerned about the ongoing weakness in FDX’s results and share price reaction?

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Every generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.” – George Orwell

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Maybe it’s the summer heat, but after two days of solid gains, futures are listless this morning with the major averages showing little change in either direction. In Europe, major equity averages are flat to lower, with the UK unchanged, Spain is down over 1%, and the STOXX 600 trades 0.3% lower. After two days of sharp declines, Crude oil is looking at a gain of nearly 1% while gold is marginally higher and Bitcoin is back above $107K. In the Treasury market, yields are slightly higher.

Today’s economic calendar is light. New Home Sales is the only report (10 AM) on the calendar, and Fed Chair Powell will testify in front of the Senate this morning as well.

As geopolitical pressures eased yesterday, gold prices have seen a modest pullback with the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) falling just over 1.5%. Given the sharp decline in crude and the rally in stocks, you might have expected to see gold see an even sharper drop. However, as shown in the chart below, prices have been moving sideways for the last two months as they never really rallied as tensions started to simmer leading up to the past weekend. With the sideways action over the last two months, GLD’s 50-day moving average (DMA) has been in a game of catch-up to prices, and were it not for a bounce late in yesterday’s session, GLD would have closed below that level.

With GLD managing to hold onto its 50-DMA, it extended its streak of closes above that level to 114 trading days, which ranks as the second-longest since the ETF’s launch just over 20 years ago. The longest streak lasted 140 trading days and ended in March 2008, while the only other streak of more than 100 trading days ended in January 2011. For GLD’s current streak to reach a record, it would have to extend through August 1st.

While gold has been consolidating monster gains from the prior several months, platinum only recently got involved in the party, but it has been making up for lost time. This month alone, the commodity is up 25% after breaking above resistance in late May.