Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 4/19/24
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The best kept secret in the investing world: Almost nothing turns out as expected.” – Harry Browne
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 has formed a downtrend that is clear as day over the last three weeks, as shown in the 15-day intraday chart of the index below:
As we noted in last night’s Closer, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has opened higher and then closed down from that opening level for four straight trading days. This is a reversal from the intraday strength that we generally saw during the slow-and-steady rally seen from last October through March.
This morning, at least, it looks like SPY is set to open lower, and bulls will be looking for that gap down to be bought.
We discussed the Israel/Iran conflict in more detail in this morning’s Commentary, but notably, oil prices have pulled back significantly after an initial spike on news that Israel was indeed retaliating against Iran last night. Oil popped 4% on the news last night, but it’s down 5% from those levels and now trading lower on the day. You can see this action in the candlestick chart of oil below. For now, oil’s 50-day moving average has still not been breached.
For much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.
The Closer – More Red Candles, Volatile on Earnings, Real Yields – 4/18/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the four straight sessions of the S&P 500 selling off intraday (page 1) followed by a look at Q1’s most volatile stocks on earnings (page 2). Next, we dive into stock and bond performance based on real yield changes and levels (page 3). We then turn to macro data including looks at the existing home sales figures (page 4), leading indicators (page 5), and then close out with a rundown of the 5 year TIPS auction (page 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 4/18/24
B.I.G. Tips – Mega-Cap Earnings
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/18/24
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures are trading slightly higher this morning, but that’s nothing new as we’ve seen a number of days in the last week or two start higher only to roll over and sell-off into the close. We cover the recent intraday selling on page four of this morning’s report.
At the end of March, most US equity index ETFs were trading in overbought territory, but now it’s the opposite as shown in the snapshot from our Trend Analyzer below. Small-caps and the Dow are at the most extreme oversold levels.
The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that are overbought versus oversold has completely flipped as well, with 46% of the index now oversold compared to just 6% that remain overbought.
For much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.
The Closer – Whole Curve Oversold, Beige Book, Fund Flows – 4/17/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with a look at how oversold Treasuries have become as well as the wide spread between the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200- and 50-DMAs (page 1). We then provide a quantitative look at the Beige Book (page 2). Next, we give an update on ETF and mutual fund flows (pages 3 and 4) before closing out with rundowns of today’s 20 year bond reopening (page 5) and the latest petroleum inventory data (page 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/17/24
Bespoke Baskets Update — April 2024
Chart of the Day – Bonds Left Bleeding
Fixed Income Weekly — 4/17/24
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes for the next two weeks!
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