Daily Sector Snapshot — 12/8/23
The Bespoke Report — 12/8/23
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/8/23 – Listless into Payrolls
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“How can I go forward when I don’t know which way I’m facing?” – John Lennon
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
What was looking like a modestly positive day for stocks earlier has reversed modestly lower, but the reality is that there is little direction ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls report at 8:30 AM. Also, don’t forget about the University of Michigan Sentiment report at 10 AM as well. Overnight in Asia, it was a mostly positive session, although Japan bucked the trend falling more than 1.7% for a 3.4% decline on the week. The culprit there was a weaker-than-expected GDP report coupled with stronger-than-expected inflation (the worst of both worlds). In Europe, the tone is modestly positive as German CPI was right inline with forecasts and employment data in France was stronger than expected.
It’s generally been a positive month so far for US stocks with some small exceptions – and another big one. Leading the way higher, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate have both rallied more than 2% while Industrials and Utilities are both up over 1%. To the downside, Materials, Consumer Staples, and Technology have all seen modest declines, while Energy has plunged nearly 4%. As a result of Energy’s weakness, while every other sector remains in overbought territory heading into today’s employment report, Energy is not only below its 50-day moving average, but it’s also the only sector that’s oversold.
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The Closer – Worst Week, 40%+ Sectors, Z.1 – 12/7/23
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a preview of tomorrow’s payrolls number and a check in on seasonality (page 1). We then check in on sector performance year to date, namely the nearly 50% gains of Tech and Communication Services (page 2). We finish with a rundown of the latest household net worth survey from the Federal Reserve (page 3 and 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 12/7/23
Chart of the Day – Fool’s Gold
Seasonal Surge in Claims
This morning’s release of Jobless claims came right in line with estimates of 220K and is only marginally higher than last week’s upwardly revised number of 219K. On a four-week moving average basis, claims have totaled 220.75K, matching the level from three weeks ago.
As we noted last week, before seasonal adjustment, claims usually increase throughout the final months of the year, but the Thanksgiving holiday likely caused an unusual drop off in claims last week. Claims were back up this week with an increase to 293.5K which is the highest level since the start of the year. Versus comparable weeks of the year, that is the highest reading since 2018.
Over the past few months, continuing claims have more consistently been grinding higher with last week marking the highest level in two years. The latest reading showed a modest pivot lower in continuing claims down to 1.861 million and matches the April high of 1.861 million.
Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call Recaps
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season. We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management. These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results. We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q4 2023 and Q3 2023 earnings reporting periods.
Q4 2023 Recaps:
Brown-Forman: Q2 2024
SentinelOne: Q3 2024
Q3 2023 Recaps:
Deere: Q4 2023
Dick’s Sporting Goods: Q3 2024
Walmart: Q3 2024
Target: Q3 2024
Home Depot: Q3 2024
Tyson Foods: Q4 2023
Kelly Services: Q3 2023
Stride: Q1 2024
Eaton: Q3 2023
Caterpillar: Q3 2023
McDonald’s: Q3 2023
Ford: Q3 2023
Amazon: Q3 2023
Meta: Q3 2023
General Dynamics: Q3 2023
Microsoft: Q1 2024
Alphabet: Q3 2023
Spotify: Q3 2023
3M: Q3 2023
Autoliv: Q3 2023
Tesla: Q3 2023
Netflix: Q3 2023
JB Hunt: Q3 2023
Lockheed Martin: Q3 2023
Big Banks (JPM, C, BAC, GS): Q3 2023
Delta Air Lines: Q3 2023
PepsiCo: Q3 2023
Conagra Brands: Q1 2024
Lamb Weston: Q1 2024
Nike: Q1 2024
Costco: Q4 2023
MillerKnoll: Q1 2024
FedEx: Q1 2024
AutoZone: Q4 2023
Lennar: Q3 2023
Dave & Buster’s: Q2 2023
AeroVironment: Q1 2024
Recaps published during Q1 2023 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription.
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report — December 2023
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/7/23 – Bad Gas
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“With confidence in our armed forces with the unbounding determination of our people we will gain the inevitable triumph so help us God.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s been a mixed start to the week for indices like the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 while the S&P 500 has been down for three straight days. This morning, futures are flat with a slight positive bias. Overnight in Asia, stocks traded lower on reports that the BoJ is gearing up for rate hikes. That led to a spike in yields and the yen and a decline of over 1% in the Nikkei. In Europe, the declines haven’t been as steep as GDP for the region declined 0.1% which was in line with forecasts, although Industrial Production in Germany unexpectedly declined.
Less than three months ago, the price of a gallon of gas in the US was pushing $3.90 and was up 21% on the year, and the price of crude oil was near $95 per barrel. Since then, crude oil prices have tumbled below $70 per barrel (as of yesterday’s close), and a gallon of gas is $3.20 which is down 17.5% from its peak and down slightly on the year. Next week’s CPI report on Tuesday and the subsequent FOMC report should be interesting.
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