Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/4/26 – Reality Check
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“A good first impression can work wonders.” – J.K. Rowling
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Markets are getting a bit of a reality check this morning as Nasdaq futures are down over 1%, while S&P 500 futures look at a more modest decline of 0.4%. The weakness comes despite crude oil prices trading down over 3% whle the 10-year yield trades down to 4.45%. Gold prices are rallying as investors take more of a risk-off approach, and Bitcoin is down another 3% to less than $64K.
Asian stocks were lower across the board overnight, following the lead of US equities on Wednesday and the follow-through into the overnight session. The Nikkei was down 1.4%, while South Korea fell 1.8%. European stocks have much less exposure to Technology and are therefore experiencing a mixed picture rather than trading broadly lower. The STOXX is down 0.2% with the UK leading the way lower (-0.7%). On the upside, France is up 0.8% while Spain and Germany are both up over 0.5%.
In the US today, along with jobless claims at 8:30, we also got Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs. Initial claims were higher than expected, while Non Farm Productivity and Unit Labor costs both came in light. Later today, we’ll also hear from a few Fed speakers.
The news of Alphabet’s (GOOGL) equity offering earlier this week reinforced the idea that AI investment will remain strong for quarters to come, but equity prices have rallied sharply and reflected much of that, so all it takes is one company to at least temporarily wreck the party. Yesterday, the party pooper was Broadcom (AVGO). While the company reported better than expected EPS, inline revenues, and raised guidance, the magnitude of the beats and the guidance raise wasn’t enough given the run in the stock over the last year.
As a result, the stock is trading down 15% in the pre-market, shaving more than $300 billion off its market cap and dragging the rest of the Technology sector down with it. The S&P 500 Technology sector is on pace to gap down over 2% at the open, while Nasdaq 100 futures are down 1.4%. If you own a tech stock that was up a lot over the last few days, you’re looking at some relatively steep losses this morning.
If current levels hold until the open, today will be the Nasdaq 100 ETF’s (QQQ) 9th downside gap of at least 1% this year and the 533rd since its inception in 1999. In other words, these types of declines are relatively common.
What makes this morning’s decline somewhat more unique is that it comes after QQQ traded at an all-time high on an intraday yesterday. Since the ETF’s inception in 1999, there have only been fifteen other occurrences when it gapped down 1%+ the day after hitting an all-time high. Ironically, though, this is the second occurrence in less than a month. Less than three weeks ago, QQQ gapped down 1.34% the day after hitting an all-time high the day before.
The chart below shows each of those occurrences going back to 1999. The first occurrence was in March 2000, coinciding with QQQ’s peak from the dot-com bubble. From there, QQQ fell more than 50% over the next year and ultimately declined more than 80%. First impressions tend to linger, so investors around at the time have nightmares about that type of setup. Besides the March 2000 occurrence, most of the other times that we saw QQQ gap down 1%+ after hitting an all-time high occurred in the middle of longer-term bull markets rather than at the end.
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
The Closer – Crude & Products, PMIs, Beige Book – 6/3/26
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
- Strategic petroleum reserves continue to experience a record drawdown as distillate inventories approach multi-decade lows.
- Even after an updated methodology was introduced in 2022, the explanatory power of the ADP payrolls estimate for the official BLS data is very low.
- The latest release of the Beige Book showed slightly weaker evaluations of the economy relative to the prior release as inflation and energy mentions were commonplace.
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 6/3/26
A Record Streak Comes to an End
As the S&P 500 is turning decisively lower today, currently down 0.6% as of this writing, the index is on pace to end a nine-day winning streak. Not only that, but since coming back from the Memorial Day holiday, the S&P 500 has closed at a record high each session up until today. As shown below, this marks the 34th time since the inception of the current five-day trading week that the index has logged a streak of six or more consecutive 52-week highs. The most recent other examples were also exactly six days long, ending in July of 2024 and 2025.
One topic we have frequently covered over the last couple of months has been the S&P 500’s continued surge to record highs despite signs of weak participation. While the index’s cumulative A/D line has been basically rangebound all year, a clear divergence has emerged since mid-April: price has continuously made new highs, but the A/D line has been trending lower.
Again, looking to the past several days, price action has resulted in a historic streak that we have been keeping tabs on in our Daily Sector Snapshot. Not only has the S&P 500 reached 52-week highs each day through yesterday’s close, but it did so with the daily advance/decline number being negative for most. Of that string of record highs, yesterday was the first one on positive breadth. In other words, last Tuesday through this past Monday, all saw a positive daily change in the S&P 500 on negative breadth. There have only been two other times since 1990 when the daily change in price and breadth moved in opposite directions for five sessions in a row—the first in April 1999 and the other in June 2024—and further, there has never been such a long streak when each of those days resulted in 52-week highs.
In the chart below, we highlight those streaks of consecutive days in which price and breadth moved in opposite directions for at least three sessions in a row, and also highlight those streaks, like the most recent that went on to five days. As shown, those instances have become increasingly common in recent years as the S&P 500 has grown increasingly concentrated, as we discussed in today’s Chart of the Day.
With the July 4th holiday coming up, make sure to pick up one (or two or three) of our fun t-shirts or sweatshirts to wear for the 250th. You can find them at Bespoke Threads or an even wider selection at our Task Force 250 store.
Want more from Bespoke? You can start by joining our Think BIG mailing list where you’ll receive an interesting market stat in your inbox a few times per week. All we need is your email address. Join now by clicking here or on the image below.
Who are you, and what did you do with Nvidia (NVDA)?
“Who are you, and what did you do with Nvidia (NVDA)?”
Nvidia (NVDA) is the largest company in the world, which also makes it the largest semiconductor company. Therefore, you would think that what’s good for the stock is good for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and vice versa. Most of the time, that’s the case, but over the last month, we’ve seen the opposite play out, prompting the question above.
Over the last 21 trading days, the daily moves of NVDA and the SOX have been in opposite directions ten times (48%). Just last week, the divergence was even wider, with the two moving conversely on 12 of 21 trading days (57%).
Since this bull market started in October 2022, the two have never moved in opposite directions more frequently than they have in recent weeks. The only other periods where daily divergences occurred with nearly as much frequency were in December 2023, July 2024, and December 2025.
We were curious to see if prior periods of such high-frequency divergence signaled a trend moving forward. In the charts below, we show the performance of NVDA and the SOX since the start of the bull market, with red dots highlighting every time the 21-day frequency of daily divergences exceeded 40%.
For both NVDA and the SOX, forward returns following these periods were all over the map, featuring gains, losses, and sideways trading alike. Therefore, as tempting as it may be to read the recent divergence as a canary in the coal mine for NVDA or the semiconductor space, it’s probably nothing more than a short-term quirk.
With the July 4th holiday coming up, make sure to pick up one (or two or three) of our fun t-shirts or sweatshirts to wear for the 250th. You can find them at Bespoke Threads or an even wider selection at our Task Force 250 store.
Chart of the Day: Hefty Tech
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/3/26 – Streaks Everywhere You Look
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I never learned anything while i was talking.” – Larry King
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We’ve seen a mixed picture in equity futures this morning, with the S&P 500 indicated to open less than 10 bps lower while the Nasdaq looks to open 0.2% higher as strength in tech stocks continues to drive the market higher. Treasury yields are slightly higher, with the 10-year up 2 bps to 4.48% while the 30-year yield once again flirts with 5%. Oil prices are 2% higher as the US and Iran traded military strikes overnight, threatening to upend any hopes for a resolution in the war. Gold prices are down almost 1% while Bitcoin is basically unchanged.
Asian markets were mixed again overnight. The Nikkei surged 2.5% to a record high, fueled by technology stocks. Stocks in Hong Kong moved in the opposite direction, falling 1.6%, while China was up slightly and South Korea was closed for a holiday. Service sector PMI indices for May were released and generally were in line with or better than expected.
European stocks have been moving in more unison this morning, and the direction is lower. The STOXX 600 is down 0.5% with a 1.1% decline in Germany leading the way lower, while Spain bucks the negative tide with a rally of 0.3%. The weakness comes despite stronger-than-expected PMIs for the services sector, as renewed tensions between the US and Iran and new proposed tariffs from the US take on a greater significance.
In the US this morning, we’ll also get updated PMI readings for the Services sector along with Factory Orders and Durable Goods, but all that will come after the 8:15 release of the ADP Employment report, which just hit the tapes and came in stronger than expected at 122K versus forecasts for an increase of 120K.
There’s been some incredible streaks unfolding over the last several weeks. Heading into the start of tomorrow’s Memorial Tournament, the world’s number one golfer, Scottie Scheffler, had finished within the top 25 of all 11 tournaments he played in this season, extending his streak dating back to August 2024 to 32. In the modern era (since 1983), Tiger Woods holds the title for most consecutive top 25 finishes with 38 in a streak that stretched from the 1999 Buick Invitational to the 2001 Phoenix Open.
In the NBA, the New York Knicks have won 11 straight playoff games heading into the start of today’s NBA Finals. The only two other teams to win more straight playoff games in a single postseason were the Golden State Warriors (15) in 2017 and the San Antonio Spurs (12) in 1999. Both teams ultimately won the championship, with the Warriors beating the Cavaliers in five games and the Spurs beating the Knicks in 5.
Within the market, we’ve also seen some incredible streaks. In Monday’s Chart of the Day, we highlighted the back-to-back monthly gains of more than 5%, and then on Tuesday, we provided an analysis of the S&P 500’s streak of 21 straight days of closing more than 5% above its 50-DMA. Some other notable streaks worth noting involve the number nine. Heading into this week, the S&P 500 was up for nine straight weeks, and yesterday, the index closed higher for the 9th day in a row!
The chart below shows prior daily winning streaks for the S&P 500, and with yesterday’s gain, the current streak ranks as tied for the longest since 1995. That streak in 1995 lasted 12 trading days and was tied for the second-longest since at least late 1952, when the five-trading-day workweek in its current form started. The longest streak on record was 14 days ending in April 1971.
We’ve extensively covered the Technology sector’s outperformance since the March lows. Heading into today’s trading, it’s clearly been a tech and everyone else market. As shown in the snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer, Technology is the only sector trading in “extreme” overbought territory, let alone merely even overbought territory. Further, in the last five trading days, the sector is up over 7%, outperforming the next closest sector by more than seven full-percentage points! Tech doesn’t necessarily have to go down from here, but it’s highly unlikely to keep up this degree of outperformance in the near term.
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
The Closer – AI Credit, Exchange Pain, JOLTS – 6/2/26
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
- Credit issuance was extremely strong in May as US corporate bond issuance topped $1trn YTD.
- On news that the CFTC would allow 24/7 financial product trading including crypto perpetual futures, CBOE (CBOE) has fallen 25% in the past ten sessions.
- Private job openings are now the highest since March 2024, and while this series can be a bit volatile, the local trend has started to move slightly higher.
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 6/2/26
The Triple Play Report: 6/2/26
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report covers what each company does, what this quarter’s results say about their growth outlooks, and their histories of delivering triple plays. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read today’s Triple Play Report. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan
Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.