Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/10/26
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“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.” – Jason Zweig
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While the S&P 500 still sits 2.8% below all-time highs, both the Dow Transports and Philadelphia Semiconductor index — two groups seen as “leading” indicators — hit new all-time highs yesterday. The charts below show the breakouts to new highs for these two closely-followed areas of the market.
US equity futures are trading slightly higher this morning as we look to close out the week with five days of gains (and extend the daily win streak to eight dating back to last Tuesday).
Below is a look at the swing we’ve seen from oversold levels last week to back above the 50-DMA for most key US index ETFs:
While we’ve seen a nice bounce, price charts for ETFs like SPY, QQQ, and IWM still have work to do to break out of the choppy action seen for many months now.
Yesterday was another painful day for the software group, which fell another 3.9% as algos look to exit or short anything at risk of AI obsolescence.
As shown below, IGV is now down 4.8% since Tuesday’s close when the US/Iran ceasefire was announced versus a gain of 3.7% for the broader Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).
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The Closer – Cybersecurity, NIPA Shifts, PCE – 4/9/26
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- Despite the recent pullback, Brent crude oil remains on pace for $200/barrel by late May.
- Alongside software stocks, cybersecurity names have also gotten hit hard in the past few months, but there have been a handful of outperformers.
- Tech related categories for investment continue to surge as a share of GDP.
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Are the Semis and Transports Leading the Market to New Highs?
For generations of market watchers, the Dow Jones Transportation Index was considered the ultimate leading indicator for the broader market. The idea being that if goods were moving, the economy was humming.
For today’s digital economy, the “leading” torch has been handed to the Semis group, which we labeled “the Transports of the 21st century” years ago.
The logic is the same: semiconductors are the essential inputs that power modern economic activity, from smartphones to data centers to automobiles.
When both of these bellwether indices are breaking out to new all-time highs simultaneously, as they are right now, it’s a signal worth paying attention to.
What makes the current setup particularly compelling is that the S&P 500 has not yet confirmed the move, still sitting roughly 2.5% below its own all-time high.
Historically, when leading indicators like the Transports and Semis are making new highs while the broader market lags, it has been viewed as a sign that the index is being pulled higher, not pushed.
The charts for Transports and Semis above show clean breakouts, with the 50-day moving average trending solidly higher beneath price. That is the kind of technical foundation that tends to give bulls confidence.
If the S&P 500 closes the gap as well and confirms with its own breakout, the weight of the evidence will be difficult to argue with.
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Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report – April 2026
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
The Rally Around the World
In yesterday’s Chart of the Day, we highlighted how the S&P 500 moved back above both its 50- and 200-DMAs in the same session. We also highlighted how even though the US based index saw strong performance, that was at the low end of returns relative to two dozen international markets. In the table below, we show the performance of 25 global stock market ETFs yesterday versus their performance from the start of the Iran War through Tuesday’s close.
As shown, there was only one country, Norway (ENOR), that traded lower yesterday, as it fell nearly 2%. However, ENOR entered yesterday at 52-week highs with a high single digit percentage gain over the prior month and change. That compares to sizable losses for nearly every other country.
As for the rest of the pack, most regions saw gains yesterday in the range of 3% to 6%. South Korean equities (EWY) were the top performer, rallying double-digits on the day.
As may be evident in the table above, the big move yesterday resulted in many of these 25 stock markets moving back above their 50-DMAs. In fact, over three-quarters of these ETFs closed above their 50-DMAs yesterday compared to a low of only 4% (or a single ETF: ENOR) in the final days of March. That is the highest share of those 25 country ETFs trading above their 50-DMAs since the first trading day of March. Not only are these country ETFs above their 50-DMAs, but but nine of them are now overbought too with a handful of others, such as Italy (EWI), teetering on joining them in overbought territory.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/9/26
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Success is like Halley’s Comet, you know. Every now and then it just comes around.” – Ross Perot
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While the S&P 500 still sits 2.8% below all-time highs, both the Dow Transports and Philadelphia Semiconductor index — two groups seen as “leading” indicators — hit new all-time highs yesterday. The charts below show the breakouts to new highs for these two closely-followed areas of the market.
While the Semis and Transports surged and held onto gains yesterday, the same can’t be said for Software. Below is an incredible two-day intraday chart of the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) versus the iShares Software ETF (IGV). While IGV and QQQ tracked each other closely through yesterday’s sharp upside open, software (IGV) collapsed from there and ended up closing down 1% on the day, while QQQ held steady and went out with a gain of nearly 3%.
The Closer – Ceasefire Confusion, Valuations, Fed – 4/8/26
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- US equity market valuations have turned significantly lower since peaking in late October of last year.
- Today’s release of the Fed Minutes took a more hawkish tone than recent meetings.
- Despite declines and the war, retail investor sentiment remained remarkably bullish in March.
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Delta Air Lines’ (DAL) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is one of the largest global airlines, differentiating itself through a premium-heavy product mix and a powerful loyalty ecosystem anchored by its American Express partnership. Delta serves both high-end leisure travelers and corporate clients, offering insight into global travel demand, consumer discretionary spending, and business activity trends. Delta delivered record Q1 revenue of $14.2B (+9.4% YoY) with EPS of $0.64, as demand remained resilient across corporate and premium segments. Cash sales rose double-digits, and corporate revenue hit a record, signaling strong travel demand despite macro uncertainty. The biggest storyline was fuel, with prices roughly doubling and adding over $2B in incremental costs for Q2. Delta is aggressively cutting low-return capacity and expects to recapture 40–50% of fuel headwinds near-term, with stronger pricing power building into summer. Management emphasized that high fuel prices could drive industry consolidation, positioning Delta to gain share. International demand (especially transatlantic and Asia) remains strong, while loyalty and premium offerings continue to drive margin expansion. DAL shares opened up 11% on 4/8 on better-than-expected earnings and trimmed guidance…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/8/26
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I looked for the same pitch my whole career, a breaking ball. I never worried about the fastball. They couldn’t throw it past me.” – Hank Aaron
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are sharply higher this morning, set to open up nearly 3%, after a two-week ceasefire was reached between the US and Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz and work towards a longer-term resolution. Of course, the anti-Trump commentary suggests that it’s a disastrous outcome for the US, while the pro-Trump commentary is saying this is all part of the President’s expert negotiating skills.
Our goal is to avoid the politics and focus on market action. Based on where futures are trading, the S&P 500 is set to move back above both its 50-DMA and 200-DMA at the open, leaving the index roughly 2.7% below its all-time closing high.
While stocks are up, front-month oil prices have crashed $20 down to the low $90s. After trading in overbought territory for 60 straight trading days, the S&P 500 Energy sector is down nearly 5% in pre-market trading. As shown below, the Energy sector ETF (XLE) will decidedly break its short-term uptrend when it opens this morning, but it’s still holding above its 50-DMA for now.
The Closer – Record Backwardation, Supply Chain Stress – 4/7/26
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- The move in Brent spot has now reached a completely unprecedented level of backwardation: more than $30 per barrel separates spot from the current front-month Brent future priced on delivery in June.
- Supply chain indicators like the NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and the Logistics Mangers’ Index highlighted rapidly rising prices and stress in March.
- Consumers anticipate gas prices to rise over 9% in the next 12 months according to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
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