Last Friday we wrote an article outlining and explaining the many investor tools that Bespoke clients have access to.  Today we want to highlight another feature available to members — our Custom Portfolios.  The Custom Portfolios feature lets you monitor the specific stocks and ETFs you’re most interested in.  You can build as many portfolios as you’d like, whether it’s based on your own portfolio, your watch list, or other strategies that you’d like to monitor closely or simply keep an eye on.  Below is a snapshot of multiple custom portfolios that we’ve set up as displayed on the website when we’re logged in as a member.  The custom portfolio we’re highlighting below is made up of the 30 largest stocks in the S&P 500.

It’s super easy to create a new custom portfolio and just as easy to add or edit tickers within each portfolio.  Our Trend Analyzer tool lets you see how stocks or ETFs in your custom portfolios are trading relative to their historical trading range.  This lets you know which areas of your portfolio are currently overbought or oversold and which currently have attractive (or unattractive) trend and timing scores.  Simply checking this page each morning ahead of the open or after the close allows you quickly find anything that stands out or needs attention.

If you click the “Chart Scanner” tab for your custom portfolio, it immediately brings up price charts for each individual ticker.  This lets you quickly scan all of the stocks and ETFs you care about most to identify anything that’s trading at key support or resistance or breaking out or breaking down.  This is the quickest and easiest way we’ve found to monitor price charts for a large number of tickers.

Finally, the Earnings Explorer tab at our Custom Portfolios page keeps you updated on upcoming earnings reports for stocks you own or are following.  With this feature, you’ll always know when a stock has an earnings release and also how that stock typically reacts to earnings reports.  You’ll never be blindsided by an unexpected earnings report again.

One of the most helpful features of our Custom Portfolios tool is the daily email you can receive with notifications regarding your stocks or ETFs.  Next to the name of each portfolio, there’s an “eye” icon that you can click to turn on the daily email notification.  Each weekday, you’ll receive an email at 7 PM ET that includes any important information about the tickers in your portfolio.  Below we show you where the “eye” icon is so that you can turn it on for your own custom portfolios if you’d like.

In the daily email, we let you know about any upcoming earnings reports in the next week, any big price trend changes that occur, any stocks or ETFs that made a new 52-week high or low that day, or any stocks or ETFs that experienced a price change of more than 5% (up or down) that day.  Below is a snapshot of a recent email we received for our own custom portfolios.

We can’t recommend the use of our Custom Portfolios tool enough given how much we use it ourselves!  If you’d like to try it out for yourself, you can start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional now!  CLICK HERE to start your free trial now!

While a number of investor sentiment surveys ask investors for their views on the market, one less widely followed index from TD Ameritrade seeks to gauge sentiment by what investors are actually doing.  According to TD Ameritrade, the Investor Movement Index (IMX):

The Investor Movement Index, or the IMX, is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to indicate the sentiment of individual investors’ portfolios. It measures what investors are actually doing, and how they are actually positioned in the markets.  The IMX does this by using data including holdings/positions, trading activity, and other data from a sample of our 11 million funded client accounts.

The latest update to the IMX index for January was released earlier and showed that investor sentiment improved as investors increased equity market exposure for the fourth straight month, which is tied for the longest streak of monthly improvement since early 2014.  The improved readings in the IMX index over the last four months have also taken the level of the index to its highest since October 2018.

In looking at longer-term trends for the IMX index, it’s interesting to note that while sentiment has really ticked higher in the last four months, it is still nowhere near levels it was at in late 2017/early 2018 just before equities peaked and saw an 18-month consolidation period.  This reinforces a broader trend we have seen in other sentiment readings recently.  Namely, investor sentiment has clearly improved, but investors still have one eye warily looking over their shoulders.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional for full access to our highly sought market analysis and interactive investment tools.

As seen in the snapshot from our Seasonality Tool below, the current week of the year (February 10th through February 17th) has been one of the strongest of the past decade. The 1.85% median gain ranks in the 99th percentile of all seven-day periods throughout the calendar year.

This year, that time frame (2/10 through 2/17) will bring us right into the President’s Day holiday next Monday (2/17). Since the Federal Holiday’s Act of 1971 set the holiday as the third Monday of February, the S&P 500 has experienced a median gain of 1.45% in the week leading up to President’s Day.  Prior to 1971, President’s Day was observed on George Washington’s birthday on February 22nd. Taking a look at each individual day the week before President’s Day, Wednesday has experienced the strongest and most consistent positive performance. Tuesday is similarly strong with a median gain of 0.28% and a higher close 61.2% of the time. The second half of the week though is weaker with median declines on Thursday and Friday and a higher close less than half of the time.

As for the week of President’s Day itself, the shortened week sees more mixed performance for the S&P 500 with a median gain of 0.17% from the Friday before to the first Friday after.  Of that week, Wednesday and Thursday have typically been the weakest days with median declines of 10 and 11 bps, respectively. Neither day has experienced a gain more than half of the time.  Friday is by far the strongest day with a median gain of 0.15%.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our Seasonality Tool and other interactive tools.

On top of a busy week of earnings, last week also saw 32 economic releases scattered throughout the week, a majority of which came in stronger than expected or stronger than the prior period’s reading. January Markit and ISM gauges on the manufacturing sector led things off on Monday with both improving from December and exceeding estimates. Service counterparts later in the week showed similar improvements and beat expectations. Hard manufacturing data on Tuesday confirmed these results with the December readings on factory orders, durable goods, and capital goods all exceeding or matching expectations, albeit capital goods and durable goods excluding transportation continue to decline month-over-month. Employment data was the highlight of the week with ADP’s reading on Wednesday showing the strongest print since May of 2015 and the biggest beat relative to expectations since December 2011. That was followed by Initial Jobless Claims which came in at their lowest reading since April’s multi-decade low, and finally, Friday’s all-around solid NFP report.

This week, the economic calendar lightens up a bit with a total of 22 data points on the docket. The calendar is back-end loaded with 18 of those 22 data points coming out on Thursday and Friday. As such, there are no releases today so small business optimism from the NFIB kicks things off tomorrow morning. Optimism among small businesses is expected to tick up to 103.5 from 102.7 which would leave it in the middle of the past year’s range. The December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is the only other release scheduled for Tuesday which is expected to show 6,925,000 job openings in December. Wednesday will likewise be a fairly quiet day with weekly mortgage applications and the budget statement for the month of January the only releases to note.

Again, things will pick up on Thursday and Friday. In addition to the usual weekly releases (jobless claims and Bloomberg Consumer Comfort), on Thursday we will also get hourly earnings and CPI data for January. CPI is expected to be stronger on the headline level but core measures are expected to slow to a 2.2% YoY rate from 2.3% last month. Export and import price indices are out Friday morning alongside the retail sales report for January. Although there is no change expected from December’s data, core measures on sales across the board are forecast to come in weaker. Industrial and manufacturing production are also scheduled to release that morning in addition to preliminary readings for February for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.

With three of the four trillion dollar stocks (Microsoft, Amazon.com, and Alphabet) in the Nasdaq trading at all-time highs today, it’s no surprise that both the Nasdaq 100 and broader Nasdaq Composite are at record highs this morning.  From a breadth perspective, though, neither index is as strong.

For starters, even though the Nasdaq 100 is at new highs, the cumulative A/D (advance/decline) line is marginally lower than its high last week.  It’s far from a major divergence but does illustrate the fact that some of the largest stocks are carrying the weight of everyone else.

The divergence between the Nasdaq 100’s price and cumulative A/D line is hardly wide enough to get worked up over at this point, but for the broader Nasdaq Composite itself, which includes a much larger universe of smaller companies, the divergence is much more noticeable. In this instance, the Nasdaq’s cumulative A/D line saw a much larger decline than price during the most recent pullback, and the magnitude of the bounce last week and into today has been relatively anemic.  This is a much more notable divergence, and one that will become a concerning trend if it continues to drag on. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our full suite of research and interactive tools.

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium for 3 months for just $95 with our 2020 Annual Outlook special offer.

Weird Politics

GOP-affiliated group intervenes in Democratic primary for US Senate seat in North Carolina by Alex Rogers (CNN)

Worried about the general election, a Republican group is advertising for a Democrat in order to force her front-running competitor to lay down cash in a primary fight. [Link]

Vermin Supreme, the “Elder Statesman of Wingnuts,” Says His 2020 Presidential Campaign Is for Real by Lucy Diavolo (Teen Vogue)

A look at the weirdest run for national office under way this cycle, conducted by an aging hippie who quite literally goes by the name “Vermin Supreme”. In our view, this bit of ridiculousness being documented in Teen Vogue really ties the story together. [Link]

Faulty Iowa App Was Part of Push to Restore Democrats’ Digital Edge by Matthew Rosenberg, Nick Corasaniti, Sheera Frenkel and Nicole Perlroth (NYT)

In an effort to return the Democrats’ digital advantage from the Obama years, the party tried to develop an app that would improve the Iowa Caucus reporting. That didn’t go so well, as is now obscenely clear. [Link; soft paywall]

Instagram

Teens have figured out how to mess with Instagram’s tracking algorithm by Alfred Ng (CNet)

In an effort to preserve privacy and keep their online lives their own, young people are starting to take some innovative steps to prevent algorithms from filling their feed with the kind of content they browse already. [Link]

Instagram Brings In More Than a Quarter of Facebook Sales by Sarah Frier and Nico Grant (Bloomberg)

A report this week showed Instagram generating more than $20bn in 2019 sales, 20x what Facebook paid for the app in 2012 and a quarter of the company’s overall business. [Link; soft paywall]

Lane of Luxury

Secrets and Stick Shifts: Why Chateau Marmont Valets Are “Unsung Heroes” of Hollywood by Gary Baum (The Hollywood Reporter)

The Chateau Marmont in Los Angeles has had the same four valets for the past thirty years, an incredible track-record for such a low pre-requisite role…even one that involves the sort of luxury vehicles that the Marmont valets are entrusted with. [Link]

NFL players trade in gas-guzzling SUVs for all-electric Teslas by Jessica Golden (CNBC)

Battery-powered sedans are becoming the standard conveyance for NFL stars at the Super Bowl, a big change from years past. [Link]

Utilities

Should Public Transit Be Free? More Cities Say, Why Not? by Ellen Barry (NYT)

Tests in cities around the country are indicating that transit ridership surges when even small fairs are removed from city transit systems. The enthusiasm is ironic given the new MTA commitments to fare policing. [Link; soft paywall]

When a small town loses its only bank by Kevin Wack (American Banker)

While we all feel frustrated with our banks from time-to-time, their inconveniences are nothing compared to the pain of not having any access to a financial institution. [Link]

The Impact of Student Loan Debt on Small Business Formation by Brent W. Ambrose, Larry Cordell, and Shuwei Ma (Philly Fed Working Papers)

The authors find a significant decline in small business formation as a function of increases in student loan debt; ex-students who are saddled with student loans are unable to use personal debt to finance new business formation. [Link; 32 page PDF]

Apple Watch outsold the entire Swiss watch industry in 2019 by Arjun Kharpal (CNBC)

While Swiss watchmakers sold about 21 million units in 2019, Apple shipped almost 31 million of its wrist-borne personal computers. [Link]

Renewables

Greenhouse gas emissions drop in Spain as power plants ditch coal by Manuel Planelles (El Pais)

Spanish CO2 emissions fell by a third in 2019 as the company rapidly halted coal mining, shuttered coal plants, and spun up new renewable projects to replace the lost capacity. [Link]

Personal Data

A Court Tried To Force Ancestry.com To Open Up Its DNA Database To Police. The Company Said No. by Peter Aldhous (BuzzFeed News)

Ancestry.com refused a warrant for access to its DNA database, which it claimed was improperly received, as it seeks to defend users’ privacy against government demands for access in order to build genetic profiles which may help narrow searches for suspects. [Link]

Cards For Employee-Ownership

Cards Against Humanity Bought Clickhole by Katie Notopoulos (BuzzFeed News)

Satirical site Clickhole was spun out of G/O Media Group (owners of The Onion, which spawned Clickhole originally) in a sub-$1mm all-cash deal that puts employees of the site in control. The game company will not exercise editorial control. [Link]

Wild In Wylie

This Southern Town Was Growing So Fast, It Passed a Ban on Growth by Valerie Bauerlein (WSJ)

A suburb of Charlotte, North Carolina tripled in population over the past twenty years, and is now trying to come to grips with the reality of rapid, unconstrained, and unplanned growth without sufficient regard for the infrastructure that supports it. [Link; paywall]

Hedge Funds

Ray Dalio Is Still Driving His $160 Billion Hedge-Fund Machine by Rachael Levy and Rob Copeland (WSJ)

10 years ago, Dalio had planned to give up control of his massive pool of capital, but at 70 years old his long string of failed leadership solutions hasn’t led to anything fruitful. [Link; paywall]

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Have a great weekend!