Following recent moves in financial markets in the last few days, there are some pretty nutty looking charts out there, but one that sticks out more than most others is the performance of the Austrian 100-year bond. Launched in late 2017 with a yield of 2.1%, there were more than a few people who laughed at the fact that anyone would lend money to any government for a hundred years at an annual coupon of just 2.1%. Well, the only people laughing now are the ones who bought it. Since inception, the Austrian 100-year has seen a rally of 84.1% and that doesn’t even include the precious 2.1% coupon. Just this year, the bond has rallied 58%, and since the end of Q2, it has rallied 18.5%. It’s up almost 8% in August alone!
Today, the rally in fixed income has run out of steam and the price of the bond is down nearly 4%. If those losses hold, it would be the worst one-day decline for the bond since May 2018. Is this the beginning of the end in the fixed income rally? Who knows. And while we would probably stay away from a security like this, we stayed away back when it launched too. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium to access Bespoke’s most actionable research reports.