Bespoke’s Brunch Reads – 6/9/24
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
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On This Day in History:
Racing Into History: The Belmont Stakes was held yesterday, and on this day in 1973, Secretariat achieved the Triple Crown with a record-breaking performance at the same race, finishing the one and a half miles in 2 minutes and 24 seconds. Secretariat was born on March 30th, 1970, in Virginia and is still one of the most celebrated racehorses in history. By the end of 1972, Secretariat had claimed victory in seven of nine races, establishing himself as a rising star. Before the 1973 Belmont Stakes, no horse had won the Triple Crown since 1948. Still, with a record-breaking win at the Kentucky Derby and another victory at the Preakness in Baltimore, Secretariat was within reach. At Belmont Stakes, it wasn’t even close as Secretariat won by 31 lengths!
When Secretariat passed, an autopsy revealed that his heart was two and a half times larger than an average horse’s, which may have contributed to his extraordinary abilities. He even earned a place as the only non-human on ESPN’s list of the Top 50 North American athletes of the 20th century, where he ranked No. 35.

Health & Wellness
Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points (NYT)
You may have seen Dr. Fauci’s hearing earlier this week, which delved into the controversial handling of Covid-19, particularly focusing on the potential origins of the virus. Evidence is mounting that the pandemic likely resulted from a lab accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, as depicted through the intricate web of virus research, including genetic manipulations and the international collaboration that supported such activities. The lab in Wuhan had proposed creating viruses with SARS-CoV-2 features and did so under low biosafety conditions, according to the evidence, which stacks up heavily against other, less-supported, theories. [Link]
‘Unusual’ cancers emerged after the pandemic. Doctors ask if covid is to blame. (MSN)
In 2021, Dr. Kashyap Patel and his team noticed an unusual spike in rare cancers among younger patients, raising concerns about a link to COVID-19. The spike included cases of cholangiocarcinoma, a cancer typically seen in much older individuals. While some attribute this trend to pandemic-related healthcare delays, others, like Patel, believe the virus could have played a direct role. Research is starting to explore if COVID-19 triggers inflammation that may accelerate cancer growth. Despite skepticism, a growing number of scientists advocate for prioritizing studies on COVID-19’s potential long-term effects on cancer, recognizing that it could significantly impact future treatment and patient care. [Link]
Woman Declared Dead Is Found Alive at Funeral Home (NYT)
In a shocking incident in Nebraska, 74-year-old Constance Glantz was pronounced dead at a nursing home but was later found breathing by a funeral home employee. Transported by Butherus-Maser & Love Funeral Home, Glantz was discovered alive during preparation for her funeral, leading to an immediate call to emergency services. She was revived and taken to a hospital but passed away later that day. No criminal intent has been found so far. [Link]
A new discovery about carbon dioxide is challenging decades-old ventilation doctrine (STAT)
Carbon dioxide monitors became important tools during the pandemic, serving as proxies for indoor air quality and potential virus transmission. High CO2 levels indicate poor ventilation, meaning there’s a higher likelihood of inhaling airborne pathogens. Elevated CO2 levels not only indicate poor ventilation but also enhance virus survival, making air more conducive to sustaining infectious particles. Studies suggest that even moderate increases in CO2 can significantly prolong the viability of viruses like Covid. [Link]
AI & Technology
Windows feature that screenshots everything labeled a security “disaster” (The Verge)
Microsoft is launching a new AI-powered feature called Recall on June 18th, designed to screenshot everything you do on your PC for easy search and retrieval. Despite promises of security and local data storage, cybersecurity expert Kevin Beaumont has pointed out vulnerabilities, such as storing data in plain text, making it easy for malware to extract sensitive information. Privacy campaigners and the UK’s Information Commissioner’s Office have already expressed concerns, and while Microsoft claims Recall is optional and secure, the opt-out setup and lack of content moderation add to the worries. [Link]
Yes, artificial intelligence is running for mayor of Cheyenne; city, county clerks comment on candidate VIC (Oil City News)
In Cheyenne, six individuals have filed to run for mayor, with one standout candidate: VIC, or Virtual Integrated Citizen. Developed by OpenAI, VIC uses AI for data-driven decision-making, transparency, efficiency, and innovation in city administration. Although VIC is supported by a human team, the candidacy presents legal questions, as current law requires candidates to be human registered voters. Local clerks are grappling with this unprecedented situation, noting that AI cannot be a registered voter, and thus may not qualify for the ballot under Wyoming law. The resolution of VIC’s candidacy remains pending, but it’s interesting to think how an AI candidate may fare against humans during a very hot political year in the US. [Link]
Researchers Use AI to Decode the Secret Language of Dog Barks (Gizmodo)
Researchers are using AI models trained on human speech to decode dog barks. By employing the state-of-the-art AI speech model Wav2Vec2, they trained one model on human speech and then fine-tuned it on dog barks, and another model solely on dog barks. The model pre-trained on human speech performed better, achieving 62% accuracy in identifying a dog’s emotion and breed, 69% accuracy in gender, and 50% accuracy in identifying individual dogs. The findings suggest that AI models trained on human speech could revolutionize our understanding of animal communication. Researchers plan to expand their studies to include more breeds, emotions, and species, aiming to further explore the potential of this technology in decoding animal languages. [Link]
Transportation
A Traffic Engineer Hits Back at His Profession (Bloomberg)
Pedestrian and cyclist deaths in the US have reached a 40-year high, and safety advocates argue that transportation engineering itself is to blame. In “Killed by a Traffic Engineer,” Wesley Marshall, a civil engineering professor, critiques the field for prioritizing speed over safety and debunks myths like the blame on human error. The book reveals how current practices, that use outdated standards and are geared towards avoiding liability, fail to address the real causes of traffic fatalities. Marshall calls for designing streets that consider human behavior and prioritize safety for all users, which is apparently against the status quo in transportation engineering. [Link]
America’s Commute to Work Is Getting Longer and Longer (MSN)
American workers are accepting longer commutes as housing costs around cities and hybrid work make hour-plus drives more common. Research shows a substantial rise in “super commutes” of 75 miles or more since 2020, led driven by people who tolerate long drives due to less frequent office visits. The study reveals a pattern of workers, especially younger ones and high earners, moving farther from urban centers. Even though lengthy drives and high parking costs might be a deal-breaker for some, many find the trade-offs for larger living spaces and hybrid work schedules worth it. [Link]
Did she even count the MTA votes? (Poltico)
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s sudden decision to pause the congestion pricing plan has caused confusion and concern among MTA board members, who were not consulted in advance. This decision leaves a $1 billion budget gap, with the Legislature unlikely to implement a last-minute payroll tax to cover it. The responsibility may fall to the MTA board, which is composed of various gubernatorial, mayoral, and county appointees. Five board members have publicly opposed the governor’s move, suggesting potential resistance if the issue comes to a vote. Hochul has not commented publicly on her decision, and the situation remains uncertain as lawmakers explore other funding options. [Link]
Taxes
IRS makes Direct File a permanent option to file federal tax returns; expanded access for more taxpayers planned for the 2025 filing season (IRS)
The IRS announced that its Direct File service will become a permanent option for filing federal tax returns starting in 2025 after the success it had with its pilot program. Direct File was praised for its ease of use and efficiency, allowing taxpayers to file electronically at no cost. Plans are in place to expand its availability to more states and tax situations. Despite some concerns about existing free filing options, the IRS is improving Direct File based on user feedback to simplify the tax filing process. [Link]
Sports
Is This America’s First $100 Million-a-Year Athlete? (WSJ)
Luka Doncic, the Dallas Mavericks’ star who is playing for an NBA championship right now, stands to out-earn legends like Michael Jordan and LeBron James, potentially making over $1 billion by the end of his career. Rising TV and streaming deals, such as the NBA’s upcoming $76 billion contracts with ESPN, NBC, and Amazon, have fueled unprecedented salary increases. Projections indicate that a $100 million annual salary could become a reality by the 2032-33 season. Put that together with lucrative shoe deals and that becomes a lot of money for some of the league’s best. Even the WNBA is seeing a boost as the women’s game has SURGED in popularity this year with more televised games, shoe deals, and viral moments! [Link]
Economic Trends
Want to Pay Cash? That’ll Cost You Extra (WSJ)
If you go to Yankee Stadium concessions with cash, you’ll have to use a reverse ATM due to the stadium’s cashless policy. The ATM deducts a fee and issues debit cards that can be used in place of the unaccepted cash. Many venues and businesses are now adopting cashless systems, which often result in extra fees for cash users. While cash remains a popular payment method, accounting for 16% of all transactions in 2023, the dominance of digital payments is burdening those who prefer or rely on cash, especially older and lower-income individuals, or even those who don’t want all their transactions tracked. Despite some states mandating acceptance of cash, the trend towards cashless transactions continues to grow, driven by convenience and security concerns. [Link]
The low-end consumer ‘is really being stretched,’ says Five Below CEO (CNBC)
Joel Anderson, CEO of Five Below, highlighted ongoing challenges for consumers, particularly in lower-income demographics, despite signs of easing inflation. On a recent earnings call, Anderson emphasized the need to deliver value to attract stretched customers. Five Below’s revenue guidance for Q2 and full year fell short of expectations, with Q1 revenue also underperforming. The company’s shares dropped nearly 11% on Thursday, reaching a 52-week low and marking a 44% decline in 2024. Anderson noted a shift in consumer behavior towards “consumable” items like candy, food, beauty, and health aids, with the Five Beyond section, offering some items for more than $5, showing the best performance among lower-income households. Despite some positive economic indicators, consumer sentiment remains low, with a notable drop in May, and many Americans mistakenly believe the country is in a recession. Anderson concluded that prolonged inflation in key areas like food, fuel, and rent has made consumers more cautious with discretionary spending. [Link]
Policy & Law
Should Finfluencers Be Regulated as Financial Advisors? (Barron’s)
The rise of financial influencers (“influencers”) on social media is a challenge for regulators. There’s a tension between protecting investors and free speech. The SEC is unsure if it can regulate finfluencers as investment advisors. Some influencers might be exempt if their advice is impersonal and they don’t mislead investors. Regulators might encourage disclosure and education to address the issue.[Link}
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Have a great weekend!
The Bespoke Report – 6/7/24 – Freaky Friday
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This Week’s Can’t-Miss Analysis — 6/7/24
We publish a lot of market-related content each week, and we want to make sure you don’t miss the most important topics. Below are some of the charts and tables we view as “can’t miss” from the last week.
Our first chart from Thursday’s Closer touches on a theme we’ve focused a lot on in recent weeks: weak breadth. As shown below, while the S&P 500’s price has been making new all-time highs this week, its cumulative advance/decline line has yet to get there and is trending slightly lower. Shorter-term, it’s pretty incredible to see the S&P’s 10-day advance/decline line near oversold territory even though price has rallied.
To continue reading the rest of this week’s “Can’t-Miss” analysis, which includes another dozen or so important market-related topics, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium today! With a two-week trial, you’ll also receive our daily research in your inbox as it gets posted. Go ahead and give it a try by signing up at this link.
Before you go…
Make sure to check out Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey’s appearance on CNBC if you missed it earlier this week. Click here or on the image below to view.
Have a great weekend!
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/7/24 – Unchanged into Unemployment
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Tell me a musician who’s got rich off digital sales. Apple’s doing pretty good though, right?” – Prince
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The recent market trend in non-farm payrolls reports has been positive. Over the last nine months, the headline report came in stronger than expected seven times, and the S&P 500 has been higher eight times on the day of the report. Even including the one day that the S&P 500 was down on a “Payrolls Friday”, its average change on the day of the report was a gain of 0.63%, and the Financial sector has been positive on the day of the report for nine straight months.
We’ve been discussing weak market breadth for a couple of weeks now, including yesterday’s Closer report where we compared the weakness in the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line to the new high in the S&P 500. Another example is the fact that while yesterday was the only day this week that the S&P 500 was down (and barely at that), the S&P 500’s net A/D line has been negative in three of the last four trading days.
While weak breadth has become especially pronounced in recent days, the trend is not new. Look at the chart below which shows the performance of the S&P 500 market cap-weighted index versus its equalweight counterpart over the last two years. While the S&P 500 has rallied 30.3%, the equalweight index is up by just a little more than a third of that (11.3%).
Below we show the rolling two-year performance spread between the two indices over time. At the current level of 19 percentage points, the spread has reached its widest level in nearly 24 years (6/30/00) putting it in the 95th percentile relative to all other two-year periods since 1992. The last time the spread was this wide, it came just ahead of what ended up being a period of massive long-term underperformance for the cap-weighted index. That being said, the period during which the cap-weighted index had outperformed leading up to that lasted for years.

To continue reading the rest of today’s morning note, where you’ll find much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report — June 2024
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/6/24 – Watch What We Do, Not What We Say
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“You get your ass on the beach. I’ll be there waiting for you and I’ll tell you what to do. There ain’t anything in this plan that is going to go right.” – Col. Paul R. Goode, June 1944
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As expected by everyone, the ECB just cut rates by 25 bps in its latest policy decision. Still, within its statement, it made some hawkish comments noting that “domestic price pressures remain strong as wage growth is elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year.” The statement added, “The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim.” In looking at their words versus actions, there’s the appearance of a wide disconnect, but actions always speak louder than words. We’ll be looking for more color in the 8:45 press conference.
Looking at the moves in financial markets over the last several minutes, you wouldn’t have even noticed there was a major policy decision from a major central bank. Equity futures have seen little reaction and remain modestly higher, while the dollar is little changed, and yields are modestly higher. In the US, Non-Farm Productivity came in higher than expected while Unit Labor Costs were a bit lower. That’s all good news, but jobless claims did come in slightly higher than expected on both an initial and continuing basis.
Even accounting for last Thursday’s 0.6% decline, the last week of trading has seen stocks put in healthy gains as the S&P 500 rallied 1.7% and hit a record high yesterday. The rally has also been broad-based. As shown in the snapshot below, every sector except for Energy has notched gains, and surprisingly, Technology has not been the leader. It’s basically the only other sector that isn’t up 1%. Leading the way higher, Real Estate, Health Care, and Communication Services have rallied more than 2.5%. Five out of eleven sectors finished yesterday at overbought levels while seven are above their 50-day moving average, and only Energy is oversold.
The Energy sector has been in a steady and well-defined downtrend since its high in early April, and if the sector is going to see at least a short-term bounce, now would be the time as the sector closed yesterday right near the bottom end of that channel after bouncing right near its 200-DMA.
Not surprisingly, the Energy sector has been tracking the performance of crude oil which has also been weak. The sector broke its uptrend in early May, and after failing multiple times to get back above that uptrend line in the middle of the month, crude saw extreme weakness to close out the month. While the price decline has been bad for energy stocks, it has been great news for drivers. According to AAA, the national average price of a gallon of gas has dropped below $3.50 for the first time since March 18th and is down over 5% from its April high.
To continue reading the rest of today’s morning note, where you’ll find much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/5/24 – Softening Indeed
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.” – Milton Friedman
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
This morning, we’re seeing a modestly positive tone in equity markets as treasury yields have barely moved. The risk-on mentality can be seen in Bitcoin where prices cracked back above $70K yesterday and now sit right around $71K. Overnight in Asia, India bounced over 3% while Japan and China both traded down nearly 1%. Service sector PMIs for both countries were better than expected. In Europe, the tone is more positive as Services sector PMIs were close to expectations indicating a modest expansion in that sector.
Back here in the US, the ADP Employment report for May just came out, and it came in weaker than expected at 152K versus forecasts for a reading of 175K. As shown below, the monthly reading has been right around these levels for ten months now, but it is well below the four-year average of 308K. With ADP out of the way, the only other report on the calendar is ISM Services at 10 AM.
Investors are closely watching a stream of employment data this week, including the just-released ADP report. But another insightful source often flies under the radar: Indeed’s job posting report.
This report provides valuable details on various employment trends, as we explored in last night’s Closer. One metric we find very useful is the percentage of industries on Indeed with job postings below their pre-pandemic baseline.
In the wake of COVID, job postings plummeted across all industries. However, from summer 2020 to summer 2021, this percentage steadily decreased. Remarkably, from August 2021 to early 2023, no industries fell below their baseline, reflecting an exceptionally tight labor market.
Over the past year, however, the labor market has begun to loosen. In recent weeks, the percentage of industries with below-baseline postings has reached 32%. While that means two-thirds of industries still have above-normal job postings, the trend suggests easing.
This aligns with other labor market indicators – employment remains strong but not strengthening. If the trend in Indeed job postings over the last several months continues, over half of all industries could see fewer job postings by year’s end compared to pre-pandemic levels.

To continue reading the rest of today’s morning note, where you’ll find much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.
EM Election Madness
Equities here in the US have gotten off to a weak start this month with the S&P 500 (SPY) down modestly over the past couple of sessions. However, those declines are being overshadowed by emerging markets. As we discussed in yesterday’s Morning Lineup and Closer and expanded on further in today’s Chart of the Day, Mexican equities have gotten massacred following the country’s election of Claudia Sheinbaum as president. The US-traded ETF that tracks Mexican stocks (EWW) is down 8.3% month-to-date and 12.3% year-to-date. After that decline, the ETF closed yesterday at a record 4.19 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average (DMA). That recent weakness is also a 180 from last year when EWW was the best-performing country ETF of the 22 tracked in our Global Macro Dashboard.
Turning forward to today’s news, Indian equities are likewise responding negatively to an election. As we detailed in today’s Morning Lineup, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies won a majority, but by a much smaller margin than was expected just yesterday. Given the results, the India ETF (INDA) is down 6.6% for its worst day since the final day of 2021. Unlike EWW, INDA is still up on the year, though it has swung from deeply overbought to oversold territory in only a day.
As for the rest of the world, we would note that yet another emerging market has fallen on hard times. Brazil (EWZ) has gotten crushed this year with a 16.7% year-to-date decline even outpacing Mexico for the worst performance in 2024. Averaging across countries, EMs have fallen 0.74% year-to-date whereas developed markets are up mid-single digits on average. Relative to prior highs, the gap between emerging and developed markets is even more stark. EM country ETFs currently sit an average of 9.42% below 52-week highs compared to only 3.28% for developed market countries.
Below, we show price charts of a handful of emerging market economies over the past year with 50-DMA trading ranges shown. As noted earlier, Brazil has been weak and trending lower all year consistently trading below its 50-DMA (gray line). It is not only extremely oversold today, but it is also on the verge of 52-week lows. While EWZ has been trending lower, China (MCHI) has been a bright spot. MCHI is in a long-term downtrend dating back to early 2021, but since the start of this year, it has rebounded. This week’s weakness in Mexico (EWW) comes on what has been a period of consolidation. Since the end of last year, EWW has essentially trended sideways, and current levels are in the middle of last fall’s range. As for India, up until today, the country’s equities have been in a steady uptrend throughout the past year. After today’s decline, the uptrend has taken a hit with the first oversold readings since the fall.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/4/24 – Bad Week for Elections in Emerging Markets
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Never make excuses. Your friends don’t need them and your foes won’t believe them.” – John Wooden
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures continue to show weakness from Monday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are indicated to open down by about 0.25%. Overnight in Asia and this morning in Europe, stocks also traded lower even as CPI in South Korea rose less than expected and employment data in Europe was weaker than expected. While the losses in Mexico on Monday were notable, stocks in India fell over 5.7% for the worst day since May 2020, more than erasing Monday’s gain of nearly 4% as initial optimism over the margin of victory for Prime Mister Modi receded.
We called it the Mexico Massacre in yesterday’s Closer report, which wasn’t an overstatement. Following the landslide victory for Claudia Sheinbaum and big gains for the Morena party, investors sold the peso and Mexican stocks on fears that the ruling party will pass constitutional reforms without any checks from the opposition leading to a less business-friendly environment.
Stocks in Mexico responded as you might expect, posting sharp declines. In local currency terms, the S&P/BMV IPC benchmark index tanked 6.11% for its worst day since the Covid crash and its 12th worst day on record.
After adjusting for the declines in the peso, US investors in Mexico lost 10% in a single day, or at least pretty darn close at 9.99%. That was also the worst day for the index since 3/9/2020 and the 12th worst since 1994.
It may not have been the worst day on record for Mexican stocks, but when the dust settled, Mexican stocks closed 4.43 standard deviations below their 50-day moving average (DMA), which works out to the most oversold level for the index on record!
To continue reading the rest of today’s morning note, where you’ll find much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.
Bespoke Market Calendar — June 2024
Please click the image below to view our June 2024 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

















