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“Never make excuses. Your friends don’t need them and your foes won’t believe them.” – John Wooden

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Futures continue to show weakness from Monday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are indicated to open down by about 0.25%. Overnight in Asia and this morning in Europe, stocks also traded lower even as CPI in South Korea rose less than expected and employment data in Europe was weaker than expected. While the losses in Mexico on Monday were notable, stocks in India fell over 5.7% for the worst day since May 2020, more than erasing Monday’s gain of nearly 4% as initial optimism over the margin of victory for Prime Mister Modi receded.

We called it the Mexico Massacre in yesterday’s Closer report, which wasn’t an overstatement.  Following the landslide victory for  Claudia Sheinbaum and big gains for the Morena party, investors sold the peso and Mexican stocks on fears that the ruling party will pass constitutional reforms without any checks from the opposition leading to a less business-friendly environment.

Stocks in Mexico responded as you might expect, posting sharp declines. In local currency terms, the S&P/BMV IPC benchmark index tanked 6.11% for its worst day since the Covid crash and its 12th worst day on record.

After adjusting for the declines in the peso, US investors in Mexico lost 10% in a single day, or at least pretty darn close at 9.99%. That was also the worst day for the index since 3/9/2020 and the 12th worst since 1994.

It may not have been the worst day on record for Mexican stocks, but when the dust settled, Mexican stocks closed 4.43 standard deviations below their 50-day moving average (DMA), which works out to the most oversold level for the index on record!

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