See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“The way we do things is to begin.” – Horace Greeley

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Make sure to check out Paul Hickey on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street today at 10 AM!

Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are slightly higher this morning, as the Dow trades slightly lower. Nasdaq futures are leading the gains following a positive earnings report from Palantir (PLTR), which has the stock trading up over 10%. Treasury yields are moving higher again as the 10-year yield sits just under 4.29%, and crude oil is slightly higher. Precious metals are really in rally mode as Gold trades up over 6% and Silver is up more than twice that in percentage terms. If you were looking for things to calm down in that space, don’t hold your breath.

The only economic report on the calendar this morning is JOLTS at 10 AM, but right before that, at 9:40, Fed Governor Bowman will be speaking at a WSJ conference. On the earnings front, some of the key companies reporting after the close will be AMD, Amgen (AMGN), and Mondelez (MDLZ)

So much for that sell-off in Asian stocks to start the week. Overnight, the Nikkei surged nearly 4% to a new all-time high. Not to be outdone, the KOSPI spiked nearly 7% briefly causing another halt to trading, after Monday’s downside halt. Both Palantir’s (PLTR) positive reaction to earnings and the US India trade deal have acted as catalysts for the gains. India’s Sensex also rose over 2.5% in the wake of the trade deal, which would cut tariffs on Indian imports to 18%, and India would agree to stop buying Russian oil. All of this news overshadowed a rate hike in Australia from the RBA, which was widely expected, but the central bank did suggest tighter policy could continue as inflation accelerates.

Yesterday, it was Europe benefiting from its lack of technology exposure, but this morning, that isn’t the case. While stocks in the region are generally positive on the session, the gains are much more muted relative to Asia. The STOXX 600 is barely holding on to gains while the UK and France are both in the red.

After two weeks of sideways trading, European stocks went into lift-off mode yesterday as the STOXX 600 surged more than 1% to a new all-time high. This morning, the European benchmark index added to those gains before pulling back modestly, although it’s still up for the day. YTD, the STOXX is already up over 4%, or more than twice the 1.9% gain for the S&P 500.

Like the Dow Jones, which has had nine months in a row of gains, the STOXX 600 has been up for seven straight months. That ranks as tied for the longest streak since May 2013 and tied for the fourth-longest on record.

Looking at individual country performances within Europe, the snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows the performance of country ETFs on the continent. Of the 12 ETFs shown, all of them are up YTD, and France is the only one underperforming the S&P 500.  Most of the countries have outperformed the US by a wide margin. The Netherlands (EWN) ETF is up over 10% already this year, and seven other countries have gained at least 5%. Most of the countries are also comfortably above their respective 50-day moving averages and well into short-term overbought territory. The only exception is Germany (EWG), which is also down the most over the last week (-0.82%).

It’s also interesting to note that most of the strength in European stocks this year hasn’t been coming from major economies like Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. They’re all at or near the bottom of the performance list. Instead, it’s the less talked about countries like the Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, and Sweden leading the way.

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Shut your eyes and see.” – James Joyce

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

After a shaky end to the week and the month for US markets on Friday, things remain somewhat unsteady as we kick off the new month. S&P 500 futures indicate a 0.3% decline at the open, while the Nasdaq is priced to open down twice as much. For both indices, current levels are well off their lows so that it could have been a lot worse.

Treasury yields are slightly lower, with the 10-year yield starting the week at 4.23%. Crude oil is sharply lower, trading down close to 5% as President Trump suggested that the Iranians are looking to come to the bargaining table. In the metals space, it’s a mixed picture with gold up about 1% while silver bounces over 6%. Copper and Platinum, meanwhile, are both lower. After moves like we saw late last week in the space, though, we would expect more wild trading in the days ahead. These types of volatility spikes have a way of lasting more than a few days before things finally settle down.

It was a negative start to the week in Asia as the Nikkei fell over 1%, while Hong Kong and China both slumped by more than 2%. The big loser, though, was South Korea, where the KOSPI plunged over 5%, and trading briefly came to a halt because of circuit breakers. The weakness in that index stemmed from a weekend story in the WSJ where Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that the company’s investment in OpenAI will not be the $100 billion previously reported, and that has raised new concerns about the vitality of the AI trade.

Today is one of those rare days, it seems, where the lack of a vibrant technology sector in Europe is a plus. The STOXX 600 is up 0.4%, and the German DAX and Spain’s IBEX 35 each rally over 0.75%. Better-than-expected manufacturing PMIs for January have also acted as a positive catalyst.

In the US today, the only economic report on the calendar is the ISM Manufacturin,g which is projected to rebound slightly from December’s reading of 47.9. Given the surprise strength in the Chicago PMI last week, though, don’t be surprised if that report comes in hot. Outside of economic data, the first major tech report of the week will be Palantir (PLTR) after the close. As we detailed in today’s Chart of the Day, growth-oriented sectors of the market have been messy lately, so PLTR’s report could have big implications for the sector.

Along with growth-oriented stocks, crypto assets have been terrible performers for the last few months, and over the weekend, Bitcoin tested 52-week lows near $75K. Prices are rebounding slightly this morning along with equity futures, but the burden of proof is firmly on the back of the bulls now as Bitcoin’s price trades near the breakeven price for all of Strategy’s (MSTR) holdings.

While it’s been a painful few months for crypto, it’s worth pointing out that this remains just a run-of-the-mill decline for Bitcoin. While it’s currently down about 39% from its all-time high, on any given day since 2016, its average drawdown from an all-time high has been over 35%.

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Hi-yo, Silver! – The Lone Ranger

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Warsh it is. After months of speculation in the horse race among potential candidates, President Trump announced his boardroom decision, and the winner of “The Apprentice: Federal Reserve” is Kevin Warsh. Futures initially sold off sharply when news of the nomination first hit the tape last night; they have since recovered much of those losses. The major averages are now looking at more modest declines of 0.50% or less. It remains to be seen how Kevin Warsh will act when he’s in the Chairman’s seat, and while he may be considered as more hawkish than some of the other nominees, he’s well respected by the street. Furthermore, all worries over Fed independence over the last six months can probably be put to rest.

It was a lower session to close the week in Asia, as major country benchmarks ended the week with mixed returns. Japan finished the week down 1% while China was down less than half that. On the upside, the Hang Seng had a much better week, rallying 2.4%, but couldn’t hold a candle to South Korea, which rallied 4.7%. Japanese yields pulled in a bit after Tokyo CPI decelerated from 2.0% to 1.5% y/y.

In Europe, it’s a much more positive tone this morning as the STOXX 600 is up nearly 1% with Spain’s 1.8% rally leading the way, although no major benchmark is up less than 0.5%. Banks are seeing some of the largest gains, but the rally has been broad-based with Energy and Materials being the only sectors in the red, while advancers outpace decliners at a 5-2 rate. In economic data, Eurozone GDP rose more than expected 0.3% while CPI in Spain declined more than expected (-0.4% m/m).

The only economic data on the calendar today in the US is PPI at 8:30 and Chicago PMI at 9:45, but the main area of focus will be the President’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Powell. PPI came in much higher than expected on both a headline (0.7% vs 0.3%) and core level (0.5% vs 0.2%), so that has pushed futures down a bit again.

It seems fitting that on the anniversary of the Lone Ranger radio debut in 1933, we’re getting some historic moves in silver over the last 24 hours. Let’s start with the Silver ETF (SLV). In yesterday’s session, the ETF traded as high as $109.83 before cratering to $96.74 and then settling at $105.57. From its intraday high to its intraday low, though, SLV traded in a 13.5% range which was the second largest intraday range in the ETF’s history, trailing only the “marathon” 26.2% intraday range on 10/10/08 during the thick of the financial crisis.

As if yesterday’s session wasn’t enough volatility for you, this morning, the SLV ETF is on pace to gap down 11.1%, which would be just the second time in its history that it opened down more than 10%. The only larger downside gap was a 13.6% decline on 3/16/20 during the heart of the Covid crash.  In terms of yesterday’s range and today’s downside gap, recent activity in SLV is right up there with levels of volatility we saw during major market crises. What’s the issue this time around? The really amazing part about today’s downside gap in SLV, though, is that if current levels hold through the end of the day, it will still be up on the week!

Not to be left out of the volatility party, gold is also poised for a rough start today. The Gold ETF (GLD) is on pace to gap down 5.1%, which would also be the second-largest downside gap in its 20+ year trading history. The only larger downside gap was on Tax Day in 2013, when GLD gapped down 5.5%. Like SLV, though, if current levels hold through the end of the trading day, GLD would also finish the week with a gain!