Feb 19, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, with Walmart’s strong Q4 report helping to alleviate some concerns over the US consumer, we take a look at what this means for the stock going forward as well as the economic implications. Turing to economic data, we evaluate the strength in Homebuilder Sentiment as seen through the National Association of Homebuilders’ index released this morning. After reviewing more soft data from the NY Fed’s Business Leader’s survey, we look at how various breadth levels have continued to support strong price action. We end tonight with a note on the compression of the US dollar’s trading range and the potential for a big breakout in the buck.
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Feb 15, 2019
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model. Below is a chart of the US Global Citi Economic Surprise Index which saw the largest one-day decline in the Citi Economic Surprise Index in over 13 years yesterday.
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Feb 14, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin by examining the market’s impulsive reactions to headlines on the government shutdown. Amid shortages of the metal, we then look at the surge in palladium prices. Next, we put into perspective what Initial Jobless Claims’ 4 week moving average hitting a 52-week high means. We then provide a look at port traffic numbers which showed exports fall while imports rose. We finish by breaking down all of the reasons to have a degree of skepticism in regards to today’s brutal retail sales report.
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Feb 13, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as equities have continued to move higher, taking out the 200-DMA, we take a look at the various ways the S&P 500 is flashing overbought signals. Next, we recap today’s release of the December budget statement from the US Treasury. We finish with an update on CPI which showed a pick up in inflation in this morning’s release.
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Feb 12, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as the S&P 500 finally closed above its 200-DMA, we show the returns following similar periods where the index spent several weeks below its average. In addition to returns, we look at how breadth has held up in those same periods as today was the highest percentage of net new highs since early December. Next, we provide an updated look at December’s JOLTS report from the BLS which continues to show a very strong labor market. After that, we turn our attention to the NY Fed’s quarterly release of consumer credit data which showed continued growth in debt to record levels. We delve in depth into this credit data to get a read on the health of consumer credit.
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Feb 11, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as the S&P 500 along with a number of other assets hover near their 200-DMAs, we look back at other times that similar situations have occurred. We also see what FX has to say about the US economy as USDJPY surged above its 50-DMA today. Ahead of the NY Fed’s quarterly breakdown of consumer credit, we look at the higher frequency of Black Knight’s mortgage monitor data on credit performance of US home buyers which is showing delinquencies hitting new lows. Moving on to commodities, we then discuss a variety of crude market geographic and grade differentials and see what they have to say about oil’s supply/demand. Turning back to equities, we take a look at the historical reactions for stocks beating earnings and revenue estimates as well as for those that raised guidance. We break this down and offer a look at each sector’s earnings reactions.
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