Feb 27, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we take a look at the breakout in breadth visible from outperformance of the S&P 500 on an equal-weight basis relative to the S&P 500 at its typical market cap weighting. The chart below illustrates that breakout. We also discuss the price action in yields which suggest the next large move for rates will be higher. In economic data, we take a look at more housing activity green shoots in the form of today’s mortgage purchase applications and pending home sales data. We then move on to reviewing the outlook for trade and inventories in tomorrow’s GDP numbers and finish with an update on ICI’s mutual fund flows data.
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Feb 26, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, today’s price action gave some support to our observation yesterday that equities were running out of steam, we provide an updated look at the technicals of the S&P 500 before recapping Fed Chair Powell’s first day of testimonies on Capitol Hill. Turing to what was a busy day in economic data, we take a look at our Five Fed Manufacturing Index with the addition of the Richmond and Dallas Feds’ inputs, what the Conference Board’s data is predicting for the unemployment rate, and finally, the awful print of housing construction data released today.
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Feb 25, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, with the S&P 500 failing to hold above resistance and given overbought levels, we provide the near term prospects of the index. Moving on to economic data, we focus tonight on the declines in world trade volumes as seen through CPB’s data released today. We give some perspectives on the outlook of trade given what leading indicators and hard data have to say. We finish on a brighter note of stronger global industrial production also via the CPB.
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Feb 22, 2019
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model. We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.
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Feb 21, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, amidst a half percentage point drop in the S&P 500 and weak economic data, we provide some of the more positive signals that markets have been sending. Turning to said economic data, first, we review the weaker, but also mixed, existing home sales print. Next, we look at the manufacturing picture through soft data from the Philly Fed and Flash PMIs as well as hard data from December manufacturing orders and shipments. We finish with EIA data that showed crude inventories continue to rise.
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Feb 20, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, in the wake of the release of the FOMC’s Minutes, we provide our analysis of the Fed’s statements, especially in regards to the balance sheet. Next, we turn to the Russell 2000 reaching 8 consecutive days of open to close and close to close gains, which is tied for the second best streak in the past ten years. We finish with a checkup on credit markets, commodities, and weekly fund flows.
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