Jun 25, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, given the decline over the past three sessions, we provide a decile analysis of the best-performing stocks in June and performance following similar declines. Next, we take an in-depth look at the CBO’s budget outlook including potential impacts of changes in rates. We finish with an update of today’s New Home Sales which showed significant weakness in the West, and that prices have gotten cheap.
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Jun 24, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at forward returns when investment grade credit makes 52-week lows and the price action in small caps and EURUSD in reference to their moving averages. We also show models using credit spreads, rates, and Citi Economic Surprise indices as inputs to predict EURUSD and bank movements. Turning to economic data, we recap today’s surprisingly weak Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index and what it means for our Five Fed Composite. We finish with a glance at Mexican economic activity.
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Jun 21, 2019
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model. We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.
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Jun 20, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as the dollar suffers its worst two-day span in over a year, we take a look at what crosses are leading this decline and taking a deeper look into CAD. Next, we review today’s Consumer Comfort index which came it at the second highest level of the current cycle. We make note of some of the interesting dynamics concerning political factors and homeownership. We then show how the leading versus coincident indicator ratio is not flashing any sort of alarming warning signs, and finish with an update on the US current account balance.
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Jun 19, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, following today’s FOMC decision, we review how the market reacted and what the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) is now showing. We also recap yesterday’s very bearish release of Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey and how ICI Fund Flows are backing these results up. We finish with freight volumes which are a bit concerning and weekly EIA data.
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Jun 18, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision, we take a look at previous rate cuts when the VIC looked similar to how it does today. We also show could be in store for the forward performance of equities and WTI given today’s rally. Next, with the ECB’s dovishness and positive trade headlines, we show today’s movement in credit and EMFX markets. Finishing with a bit of economic data, we recap today’s slightly stronger residential construction data and show how some Homebuilder stocks have been performing.
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