Jul 16, 2025
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“There is always some kid who may be seeing me for the first time. I owe him my best.” – Joe DiMaggio
On this day in 1941, Yankees star Joe DiMaggio extended his record hit streak to 56 games, which would end the next day. July 16th was also the day of the first atomic bomb test in New Mexico in 1945. J.D. Salinger’s Catcher in the Rye was published on July 16th, 1951, and the Apollo 11 moon-landing mission launched on this day in 1969.
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While the S&P is down just 0.3% over the last week, we’ve seen overbought levels work themselves off for some of the key breadth levels we watch.
The S&P’s 10-day advance/decline line had gotten to one of its most overbought levels of the last year earlier in the month, but it’s currently sitting just below the flat-line.
The percentage of overbought stocks in the S&P has also fallen from a reading above 50% down to 32%, while 22.6% of stocks in the index are now oversold.
Jul 15, 2025
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“The first step towards getting somewhere is to decide that you are not going to stay where you are.” – J.P. Morgan
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To view yesterday’s CNBC segment on “The Exchange” where we discussed sentiment leading up to the Q2 earnings season, please click on the image below.
It’s taken long enough, but the Q2 earnings season is finally here, with several large banks, including J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), reporting this morning. Of the reports we’ve seen so far, the results have generally been good, with five companies beating EPS forecasts and four topping consensus forecasts for sales. In response to the positive reports, though, four of the five stocks are trading lower. The magnitude of the declines has been very modest, and it’s still early, but the negative reactions could be a signal that investors have high expectations heading into earnings season.
While investors are taking a sell-the-news reaction to this morning’s results, futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both higher heading into this morning’s CPI report. The positive tone in futures stems from an announcement from Nvidia (NVDA) that it would resume sales of its H20 chips in China. In Europe this morning, markets are little changed, with the STOXX 600 up 0.2% while equities were mostly higher in Asia overnight.
In yesterday’s CNBC segment, we discussed how the expectations bar is higher heading into this earnings season than it was last earnings season. To illustrate, let’s look at JP Morgan Chase (JPM). The chart below shows JPM’s performance from the close before one earnings report to the close before the next. Heading into today’s report, JPM had rallied 27.2% since the close before its last earnings report, and that ranks as the sixth-best performance between earnings reports since at least 2002 and the best since the three months leading up to its January 2023 earnings report. During Covid, JPM rallied 37.8%, and there were two quarters following the dot-com bust when the stock also rallied by more than 35%.
Just because JPM has rallied a lot leading up to this quarter’s report doesn’t mean it has to decline in the three months following its next earnings report. That being said, the stock’s median performance following periods when it had big gains leading up to one earnings report is lower than its performance following all other earnings reports. Of the nine prior periods when the stock rallied more than 20% in the three months between earnings reports, JPM’s median performance between its next two earnings reports was a decline of 1.0% with positive returns 44% of the time. For all other periods when the stock was up less than 20% since its last earnings report, the median performance between its next two reports was a gain of 3.4% with positive returns 65% of the time.
Since JPM typically reports very early on in earnings season, the chart below shows the performance of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) between JPM reports since 2002. While the last three months have been the sixth-best period between earnings reports for JPM, in the case of SPY, its 17.0% has been the second-best. The only period between JPM reports that SPY performed better was leading up to its October 2009 report, when it rallied 18.0%. Based solely on the performance of SPY between JPM reports, the bar is higher heading into this current earnings season (with SPY up 17% over the last three months) compared to the 9.9% decline in the three months leading up to last April’s report. That decline was the sixth worst since at least 2002.
Jul 14, 2025
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“Any fool can make something complicated. It takes a genius to make it simple.” – Woody Guthrie
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The President’s letter-writing campaign to global trading partners continued over the weekend with notifications sent to Mexico and the EU informing them that if no trade deals are reached before August 1st, they will face tariffs of 30% on all products sold into the US. When these types of rates were first announced in April, they nearly pushed the S&P 500 into a bear market. This morning, S&P 500 futures are down just fractionally and within a couple of percentage points of all-time highs. Investors are betting that tariff rates at these levels will never go into effect, and while 30% is the unlikely long-term figure, the lack of concern today is the opposite of the panic three months ago.
Along with the weakness in US futures, European stocks are also trading down fractionally. Germany, the largest exporter in the EU, is leading the way down with a decline of 1%. Overnight, in Asia, most markets were also fractionally lower, so it’s not just US investors who are yawning at the latest batch of letters from the President.
The most action this morning is once again in the crypto pace as Bitcoin continues its march to record highs and traded well over $120K. Ether has also been getting in on the act with a 2% rally this morning and back above $3K.
Besides tariffs, the upcoming week will be an important one on the economic front with the release of June CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday). Economists have been waiting (and waiting) for tariffs to push inflation readings higher, but those concerns have yet to manifest themselves in the official numbers.
Tariffs are driving headlines this morning, but earnings (which will ultimately at least be partly impacted by tariffs) will start grabbing headlines beginning this week as Q2 earnings season gets underway. The major banks and brokers will be the main area of focus for the week. Still, other notable non-financial sector stocks reporting include Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) on Wednesday, and then Netflix (NFLX), General Electric (GE), Abbot Labs (ABT), and Pepsi (PEP) on Thursday.
The S&P 500 finished last week down by 0.3%, but of the 12 largest S&P 500 companies scheduled to report, eight of them underperformed the S&P 500 last week, indicating that some investors took profits after the strong runs they had over the last three months. That can be considered a modest positive as it suggests investors aren’t being overly complacent ahead of their respective reports. They have still mostly performed well over the last three months, though. As shown in the snapshot below, nine of the twelve stocks shown finished the week at overbought levels (1+ standard deviation above their 50-DMA), and only ABT is below its 50-DMA.
Below we show one-year charts of each of the twelve largest stocks scheduled to report earnings this week. Except for JNJ and PEP, all twelve are either at or not far from 52-week highs. Goldman Sachs (GS) is one name that has seemingly gone parabolic over the last three months. Despite trading down 2.6% last week, the stock is still up over 40% since its last earnings report in April, which ranks as the three strongest performances between earnings reports for the stock on record.
Jul 11, 2025
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“Try and fail,but don’t fail to try.” – John Quincy Adams
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 hit another record high yesterday as certain speculative areas of the market continued to surge. This morning, though, bulls are taking a break as the latest round of tariff announcements from the President set the stage for a negative end to the week. The latest announcement causing the damage is a 35% tariff announcement on Canadian imports in what the President says is a response to the country allowing fentanyl to cross the border into our country. He then added that the 35% levy will go even higher is Canada retaliates. More broadly, President Trump also said he was planning blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on any countries he hasn’t already sent letters to.
Futures are negative in response with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indicated to open down 0.5% at the open. Treasury yields are also higher, but the 10-year yield remains below 4.4%. Crude oil and gold are both up 1%, but the gains in other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium are even larger at 3%+. The biggest moves to the upside are in the crypto space as Bitcoin is surging close to 4% at a record high of just under $118K while Ethereum is trading just under $3,000 with a gain of 6%.
Like the declines in US futures, Asian markets were mostly lower last night on concerns related to the latest Trump Tariff announcements. Those losses also overflowed into Europe as the STOXX 600 faces a decline of nearly 1% to close out the week.
In terms of what is leading the market, mega-caps remain in charge. The chart below shows the relative strength of the S&P 500 equal-weight (RSP) vs market cap weight (SPY) indices. When the line rises, it indicates outperformance of the equal-weight index, while a falling line indicates that the market-cap-weighted index is outperforming. At this time last year, RSP was in the middle of a short-term burst of massive outperformance, but the gains were fleeting, and by the end of the year, RSP had given up all of its outperformance relative to SPY. In the first quarter of this year, RSP outperformed again, but just like the fourth quarter of last year, the second quarter of this year saw RSP once again give up all of its outperformance. At one point, RSP will take the lead and keep it for a while, but for now, SPY keeps retaking the lead.
Looking ahead, depending on your time horizon, the calendar is either a good friend or an adversary. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s median performance in the week following the close today has been a gain of 1.32% and ranks in the 93rd percentile of all one-week periods throughout the year. Over the next three months, though, the S&P 500’s median gain of 0.64% ranks in just the 15th percentile as the months of September and October become a larger part of the three-month view.
Jul 10, 2025
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“If you don’t fail sometimes, you are not being ambitious enough.” – Sundar Pichai
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After several days with little in the way of economic or earnings data, this morning we’ll get reports on jobless claims, and we’ve already seen a handful of earnings reports. Of the four companies reporting earnings this morning, two reported better than expected EPS, three missed sales forecasts, and two lowered guidance. Maybe we would have been better off with no data! In response to the reports, we’ve seen some large moves. Helen of Troy (HELE), which reported a reverse triple play, is down over 20% while Conagra (CAG) and Simply Good Foods (SMPL) are both down over 4%. The only one of the four stocks trading higher in reaction to its report is Delta (DAL). That stock is flying over 13% in pre-market trading.
While these individual names have seen large reactions, overall, equity futures are up or down 0.05% or less, and treasury yields have barely budged. Crude oil is down less than 1% while gold, silver, copper, and platinum are all firmly higher.
Asian stocks were mixed, with Japan and India both down nearly 0.5% while China was up by a like amount. A former BoJ official made comments that there will likely be no more rate hikes until early 2026, while the Bank of Korea kept rates unchanged. In Europe, equities are moving higher as mining companies fuel a 0.6% rally in the STOXX 600 and a more than 1% rally in the FTSE 100.
Yesterday, we highlighted some of the massive moves in various metals like gold this year. This morning, we’ll shift our focus to Bitcoin, aka digital gold, which has also been performing very well. While Bitcoin’s performance this year looks like more of a sideways move, it’s still up a respectable 18% YTD and hit a record high yesterday. This morning’s price, right around $111K, leaves Bitcoin right near the resistance it has been dealing with since late last year. A breakout above $112K would complete a cup and handle formation, setting the stage for a new leg higher.
Just as bitcoin prices have been looking to break out from resistance, Bitcoin treasury company MicroStrategy (MSTR) has also been dealing with resistance right around $425 since late last year. Without getting into the valuation of the stock or the premium it trades at relative to its underlying crypto holdings, a move above $425 could set the stage for a new leg higher and a test of its post-Election highs from last year.
If Bitcoin is the ‘gold standard’ of the crypto space, Ethereum would be the silver standard, and price action has been much more subdued. While prices have rallied in recent weeks as digital tokens have gained in popularity, Ethereum remains more than 20% below its post-election highs. Prices are up over 7% in the last two days but remain below short-term resistance at the $2,800 level.
Throughout its history, Ethereum has been no stranger to large drawdowns. As shown in the chart below, since 2018, it has only been within 10% of a high on 6% of all days, and on average, it has traded in a drawdown of 53%! That means that the current 42% drawdown from its last record high in late 2021 is more modest than average! No one ever said the crypto space was an area of stability!
Jul 9, 2025
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“A great wind is blowing, and that gives you either imagination or a headache.” – Catherine the Great
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Looking at the quote above from Catherine the Great, isn’t that just the way you feel when it comes to AI? While the possibilities are endless, the pace of change and trying to keep on top of everything going on can be exhausting!
The S&P 500 has declined for two straight sessions, but futures are looking modestly higher this morning on little in the way of news. Investors will continue to monitor Washington for any tariff-related headlines, but the letters and policies released and announced this week have, broadly speaking, had little impact. It’s another quiet day for data as there are no economic reports on the calendar, but minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released at 2 PM.
Speaking of the FOMC, the Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that the President is currently leaning towards Kevin Hassett over Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chair Powell. Warsh is reportedly falling out of favor for some of his past criticism of the Fed’s zero-interest rate policy and asset purchase programs.
In international markets, Asian stocks were mostly lower overnight following Trump’s comments that he wouldn’t extend his August 1st tariff deadline. The only major index to buck the negative trend was Japan, where the Nikkei rallied 0.33%. In Europe, the tone is much more positive with the STOXX 600 up over 0.7% as defense stocks lead the charge.
As mentioned above, the President’s various tariff policies announced this week haven’t had much impact on a macro basis, but for certain areas like copper, the impacts have been significant. After the year has already seen incredible rallies in the price of gold, platinum, and silver, yesterday, President Trump gave copper the boost it needed when he announced 50% tariffs on all copper imports. The news came just as copper was starting to pull back last week after testing its highs from earlier in the year. That resistance proved no match for the 50% tariff bazooka, and prices broke out to a record high, eclipsing $5.40 per pound, finishing up more than 13% on the day. Strength in copper is often considered a sign of economic strength, but we’re not sure a rally artificially propelled by trade policy would qualify.
Yesterday’s 13.1% rally in copper was a record one-day gain for the commodity, eclipsing the prior record of 12.3% from October 2008. Since 1990, it was also only the third time the commodity rallied more than 10% in a single day.
