Aug 29, 2025
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“Happiness is good health and a bad memory.” – Ingrid Bergman
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s all over. With Labor Day falling as early on the calendar as it possibly can, today marks the unofficial last trading day of Summer. Not surprisingly, futures are glum. The S&P 500 is indicated to open 0.3% lower, while Nasdaq futures are down by a more substantial 0.5%. The 10-year yield is trading modestly higher (less than 2bps), and the 4.22% yield is near the lowest level since April. Crude oil is fractionally lower, while natural gas is modestly higher. Gold is seeing modest losses, but cryptocurrencies are down by larger amounts, with Bitcoin down 2% and trading under $110K while Ethereum is down closer to 3% and trading below $4,350.
It may be the last summer Friday of the year, but the economic calendar is packed with data. Starting at 8:30, we’ll get Personal Income and Spending along with PCE and Wholesale Inventories. At 9:45, we’ll get the August Chicago PMI, which is expected to come in at 46.5, and that would be a modest downtick from July’s reading of 47.1. Finally, consumer sentiment from UMich will hit the tape at 10 AM. After a weaker-than-expected preliminary reading on 8/15, the headline reading is expected to remain unchanged at 58.6.
In Asia, the Nikkei was fractionally lower but finished the week higher. Japanese economic data was weak, with both Retail Sales and Industrial Production coming in significantly weaker than expected. While the weakness in those reports was disappointing, Tokyo CPI also came in lower than expected, which was positive. In China, shares of Alibaba (BABA) are higher following reports that the company is rolling out AI chips designed to fill the void left by the ban on Nvidia (NVDA) exports to the country.
Like the picture for US futures, European equities are also firmly lower as the STOXX 600 is trading down 0.5% taking its week-to-date decline to 2%. Country-specific equity benchmarks are also down across the board by similar amounts, although Spain is seeing outsized losses with a decline of over 1%. Banks are notably weak in the region following UK proposals to tax banks to pay down deficits.
Heading into this last trading day of the summer, the S&P 500 has been in rally mode, notching its 20th record closing high of the year, rallying over 2% since last Thursday, and trading well into short-term overbought territory.
One interesting aspect of the rally is that the new highs have come without the Technology sector making new highs in tow. The sector hasn’t exactly been lagging, but it hasn’t made a new high since August 13th.
If the rally is to continue in the short term, the market will also need to do it without seasonality working in its favor. As shown in the Seasonality tool on our website, the S&P 500’s median performance over the next week based on the last ten years of data has been a decline of 0.45% which ranks in the 15th percentile of all one-week readings throughout the year. The median one-month performance has been a decline of 1.94% which is among the worst one-month periods of the year! As bad as that is, the median three-month performance is positive at 2.8% which ranks in the 56th percentile of all rolling three-month periods. Historically, the last three months of the year have been positive, but we still have to get through September first!
Aug 28, 2025
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“There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s another quiet morning in the markets despite what has been a busy overnight session for earnings. Of the 33 companies that reported since the close yesterday, just six missed EPS forecasts. On the geo-political front, there have been some ripples as Mexico announced that it will increase tariffs on Chinese imports, while Japan’s trade representative has cancelled a planned trip to the US, which will further delay trade negotiations. Regarding the Fed, the only speaker on the calendar today is Governor Waller after the close.
The economic calendar is busy this morning. Q2 revised GDP came in at 3.3% vs forecasts for 3.1% while Personal Consumption and the GDP Price Index were right in line with forecasts. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 229K, which was 1K lower than estimates. Continuing Claims, which have been drifting higher lately, also came in lower than expected at 1.954 million versus forecasts for 1.966 million.
We made it through NVDA’s earnings report. The world’s largest publicly traded company released an uneventful earnings report last night, and while results were better than expected, that hasn’t been enough this earnings season to provide a meaningful boost to a stock’s price. In pre-market trading, NVDA is trading down less than 2%, which is basically a rounding error relative to the stock’s historical reaction to earnings. Over the last 25 years, NVDA’s average one-day reaction to earnings has been a gain or loss of just under 8%. Since the launch of ChatGPT, there have only been two other quarters out of 11 where the stock gapped up or down less than 2% in reaction to earnings, and today will likely be the third time in the last 12. For more than a week, all we heard about was the importance of NVDA’s earnings report and what it would mean for the market. Well, NVDA earnings came, and NVDA earnings went, and the most hyped earnings report in weeks has ended up being a non-event.
NVDA came into last night’s earnings report in a bit of a holding pattern after hitting record highs a couple of weeks ago. The stock has been gradually trending lower in the short term, but remains above its 50-DMA, so provided the stock doesn’t experience a significant move during the trading session, today’s action and last night’s report will have no impact on the stock’s technical picture.
There’s been a lot of talk over the last several weeks regarding rotation within the market, but strength at the top has been consistent. The ten largest stocks in the S&P 500 are up an average of 3.94% (median: 3.64%) so far this month, and just three are in the red. On a YTD basis, the ten stocks are up an average of 12.40% (median: 9.48%), and only two are down.
At the other end of the market cap spectrum within the S&P 500, the ten smallest stocks in the index are slightly underperforming the ten largest stocks this month on an average basis but outperforming on a median basis. Where the big discrepancy shows up is in the YTD column, where the average performance has been a decline of 13.75%, or a performance gap of more than 26 percentage points!
Aug 27, 2025
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“We’re moving from a world where we have to understand computers to a world where they will understand us.” – Jensen Huang
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If you missed yesterday’s CNBC segment discussing recent market rotation, you can watch it by clicking on the image below.
It’s another quiet market morning with futures indicating just a modest gain at the open. Treasury yields are modestly higher across the curve, while crude oil is essentially flat at around $63 per barrel. In contrast, gold and other metals are slightly lower. There’s no economic data on the calendar this morning, and, outside of some earnings from retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl’s (KSS), and Williams-Sonoma (WSM), the earnings calendar is light. Even the endless coverage of the Cook firing has subsided!
The quiet tone will change this afternoon when Nvidia (NVDA) reports after the close. Along with NVDA, we’ll also get reports from HP (HOQ), CrowdStrike (CRWD), NetApp (NTAP), and Urban Outfitters (URBN). The next two days will also be much busier on the economic calendar, so enjoy the calm while it lasts.
In Asia overnight, Japan was slightly higher while China traded lower as Industrial Profits for July fell 1.7% on a YTD basis. Australian stocks finished the session with fractional gains despite a CPI report which came in much higher than expected at 2.8% y/y versus forecasts for an increase of 2.3%.
European stocks are also trading much like US futures with little in the way of gains or losses. The STOXX 600 is up 0.15% with Germany trading slightly lower while France is bouncing back 0.45% from Tuesday’s 1.6% decline.
Gold prices are doing little this morning, and the last few months have been like watching paint dry for the yellow metal. After hitting an all-time high just above $3,500 per ounce in early April, gold has made multiple other attempts at breaking out above that level. While they have been unsuccessful, gold hasn’t sold off following those rejections, which has resulted in a relatively narrow range in recent months.
Over the last three months (63 trading days), in fact, the spread between gold’s intraday high and low has been just 5.34%, the narrowest three-day range since March 2024 and ranking in the bottom decile of three-month ranges over the last 30 years. This narrow range also marks a major shift from where this measure was four months ago in April, when the range topped 25% which was the widest since 2013.
Like gold, platinum had been stuck in a range for several months from the second half of last year, with multiple run-ins with resistance just below $1,070. In late May/early June, though, it broke out of that range with vengeance surging as high as $1,500 before pulling back in July. Since that peak a little over a month ago, platinum has pulled back by about 11% and is now teetering on the 50-DMA, tenuously holding onto support. After such a large rally in such a short period, it’s only natural to see a pullback, so if these levels can hold, in the days ahead, platinum could start to look even more precious in the eyes of investors than it did even back in June.
Aug 26, 2025
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“If you can go through life without experiencing pain you probably haven’t been born yet.” – Neil Simon
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If last week’s rally to close out the week felt like a Friday, this morning’s futures feel a bit like a Monday as futures are modestly lower in what feels like a sluggish market. The big headline this morning is probably a story from Friday where the President threatened tariffs on furniture makers who import goods from overseas. Stocks like Wayfair and RG are trading sharply lower in response,
The only economic reports on the calendar are New Home Sales at 10 AM and the Dallas Fed report at 10:30. Earnings season is mostly over, except for the elephant in the room – Nvidia (NVDA)- which reports Wednesday after the close.
Friday’s gain wasn’t the first 1%+ rally this summer, but it was the largest gain for the S&P 500 since the day after Memorial Day. Even with that gain, the S&P 500 only managed to squeak out a gain of 0.3% for the week, owing to the five-day losing streak that the market was riding heading into Friday. Last week, we showed the chart of the S&P 500’s performance during the week of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, and below we have updated it to include last week’s 0.3% gain. While it was a weaker-than-normal Jackson Hole week, last week was the third straight year of positive returns and the fifth in the last six.
While most investors were checked out for the weekend, crypto markets had some major moves. Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, gave up all of Friday’s gains and fell to its lowest level since early July. The catalyst for the decline was a massive sale of 24,000 coins worth over $167 billion from a Bitcoin whale on Saturday. As shown in the chart below, for now, Bitcoin remains above support at the $109,000 level, but a break of that support within just two weeks of hitting a record high wouldn’t be a positive technical signal.
While Bitcoin investors may have been wishing that it didn’t trade on weekends after Saturday’s decline, Ethereum continues to gain attention and share in the crypto space. Around the time that Bitcoin was hitting record highs a couple of weeks ago, Ethereum was pulling back and testing support from its highs last fall. That support held, and over the weekend, Bitcoin broke out to new 52-week and record highs.
Looking at Ethereum from a 5-year time frame, its parabolic run over the last several weeks rocketed right through prior resistance in the low 4,000 range, right up to the highs from late 2021 and just under 5,000.
Aug 25, 2025
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“Some people without brains do an awful lot of talking, don’t you think?” – The Wizard of Oz
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If last week’s rally to close out the week felt like a Friday, this morning’s futures feel a bit like a Monday as futures are modestly lower in what feels like a sluggish market. The big headline this morning is probably a story from Friday where the President threatened tariffs on furniture makers who import goods from overseas. Stocks like Wayfair and RG are trading sharply lower in response,
The only economic reports on the calendar are New Home Sales at 10 AM and the Dallas Fed report at 10:30. Earnings season is mostly over, except for the elephant in the room – Nvidia (NVDA)- which reports Wednesday after the close.
Friday’s gain wasn’t the first 1%+ rally this summer, but it was the largest gain for the S&P 500 since the day after Memorial Day. Even with that gain, the S&P 500 only managed to squeak out a gain of 0.3% for the week, owing to the five-day losing streak that the market was riding heading into Friday. Last week, we showed the chart of the S&P 500’s performance during the week of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, and below we have updated it to include last week’s 0.3% gain. While it was a weaker-than-normal Jackson Hole week, last week was the third straight year of positive returns and the fifth in the last six.
While most investors were checked out for the weekend, crypto markets had some major moves. Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, gave up all of Friday’s gains and fell to its lowest level since early July. The catalyst for the decline was a massive sale of 24,000 coins worth over $167 billion from a Bitcoin whale on Saturday. As shown in the chart below, for now, Bitcoin remains above support at the $109,000 level, but a break of that support within just two weeks of hitting a record high wouldn’t be a positive technical signal.
While Bitcoin investors may have been wishing that it didn’t trade on weekends after Saturday’s decline, Ethereum continues to gain attention and share in the crypto space. Around the time that Bitcoin was hitting record highs a couple of weeks ago, Ethereum was pulling back and testing support from its highs last fall. That support held, and over the weekend, Bitcoin broke out to new 52-week and record highs.
Looking at Ethereum from a 5-year time frame, its parabolic run over the last several weeks rocketed right through prior resistance in the low 4,000 range, right up to the highs from late 2021 and just under 5,000.
Aug 22, 2025
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“There is winning and there is misery.” – Bill Parcells
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures are modestly higher heading into the last session of the week as the S&P 500 looks to end a five-day losing streak. There’s no economic data on the calendar, so whether we can end this streak will likely depend entirely on Powell’s 10 AM Jackson Hole speech.
In Europe, stocks are modestly higher on little in the way of news besides German GDP for Q2 being revised down more than expected to a decline of 0.3% versus forecasts for a decline of 0.1%.
In Asia, equities finished off a mixed week with a mixed session. Japan’s Nikkei finished slightly higher but down over 1% for the week. Chinese stocks were up over 1%, taking the weekly gain to more than 3%, while India traded down 0.9% on Friday but still managed to finish the week up nearly 1%. The main story out of the region was in China where Nvidia (NVDA) has reportedly stopped sales of its H20 chip to Chinese customers after that country’s government told local tech companies not to buy the chips citing security concerns. In response to the news, Chinese semiconductor names traded sharply higher.
It’s only been a week, but the general market tone heading into this Friday’s session is different than last Friday. For starters, we’re not sure where you are, but in the New York area, last Friday’s morning temperature was around 80 degrees, but this morning, we’re looking at a fall-like temperature of 58 degrees as we type this. In the equity market, last Friday, the S&P 500 was coming off its 3rd record closing high in a row and its 13th record high of the quarter. A rate cut at the next Fed meeting in September was pretty much a done deal.
Today, things look a lot less certain, the market is now pricing in just a 70% chance of a cut at the September meeting, and ahead of his Jackson Hole speech at 10 AM this morning, he probably won’t rule it out, but it doesn’t feel like Powell will make a forceful case to cut rates. With all the increased uncertainty, we’ve gone from a market closing at record highs to a 5-day losing streak that is tied for the longest since April 2024.
The last time the S&P 500 closed at a record high and then fell for five straight days was in January 2022 right at the start of the last bear market. There was also an occurrence right around the pre-Covid peak, and another near the dot-com peak in 2000. Any time you can make a connection between the current market and those three periods, it’s an ominous signal. Don’t they say that tops are a process? These all sound like pretty quick reversals!
Looking at ALL the occurrences where the S&P 500 hit a new high and then immediately went into a five-day losing streak, though, shows that there were plenty of occurrences within much longer-term bull markets.
