Morning Lineup – A Fresh Start
After a headscratcher of a week last week when it came to market expectations for the FOMC and the size of any potential rate cut at its meeting next week, thanks to a blackout on any further communications ahead of next week’s meeting, we won’t have to worry about any more conflicting headlines. It’s going to be a busy week for earnings, so make sure to check out our Earnings Calendar for a look at what’s on top. In terms of this week’s reports so far, results haven’t been particularly encouraging. Of the eleven companies reporting so far today, just over half have exceeded EPS forecasts while less than a third have topped revenue estimates. One notable loser today is Lennox (LII). Not only did the company miss top and bottom-line estimates but they also lowered guidance citing cooler weather int he quarter.
Read today’s Morning Lineup to get caught up on news and stock-specific events ahead of the trading day and a discussion of trade data out of Korea.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 7/22/19
Now that the FOMC is in blackout mode, hopefully, the volatility related to expectations for the July meeting will start to subside. After all the ups and downs of the last week, markets are now pricing in a three-quarters chance of a 25 bps cut and a one in four chance of a 50 bps cut. This comes after Friday’s comments from Boston Fed President Rosengren on Friday that he doesn’t see the need for a cut at all.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Tech Back in Charge
After yesterday’s somewhat strange combination of positive economic data and dovish FOMC commentary, futures are showing continued positive momentum with equities indicating a modestly higher open led by the Nasdaq and Microsoft’s (MSFT) earnings after the close Thursday. The stock is currently up over 3%, further cementing its place in the trillion market cap camp. Treasury yields are modestly higher at the long end of the curve, and the 10-year vs 3-month curve is close to positive territory.
Read today’s Morning Lineup to get caught up on news and stock-specific events ahead of the trading day and a further discussion of recent earnings reports from around the world.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 7/19/19
Each Thursday in our Sector Snapshots report, we highlight the relative strength of individual sectors versus the S&P 500. One sector that stood out in last night’s update was Technology. While the sector has been a market leader for some time, it has finally erased all of its underperformance from the month of May and is the only sector where relative strength is at a new high.
One contributor to the sector’s strength recently is semiconductors. From its highs in April to the May lows, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) nearly reached bear market territory on an intraday basis falling 19.8%. Since then, the SOX has rallied 18.9%, and while it is still shy of new highs for the year, it did close on Thursday at its highest level since 5/6.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Stocks and Bonds Still Neck and Neck
The earnings flow is now in full swing and Netflix (NFLX) is the early leader for the title of the biggest flop as the stock is down over 10% after missing subscriber growth forecasts. In other earnings news, of the roughly 50 companies that have reported since the close yesterday, two-thirds have exceeded EPS forecasts while slightly more than half have managed to top revenues estimates. This morning’s economic slate kicks off at 8:30 with Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed report while Leading Indicators will be released at 10:00 am.
Read today’s Morning Lineup to get caught up on news and stock-specific events ahead of the trading day and a further discussion of recent earnings reports from around the world.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 7/18/19
It may sound hard to believe given the recent gains in the equity market, but over the last 12-months, the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries have had nearly identical returns. The chart below os from page two of our Morning Lineup and shows the relative strength of the S&P 500 versus the US Long Term Treasury future. When the line is rising, it indicates that stocks are outperforming bonds, while a falling line indicates periods where bonds outperformed stocks. With the line currently right at 0.0 through yesterday’s close, after the last twelve months, it has been a dead heat between the two.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Home Sweet Home
Earnings season is slowly starting to ramp into gear, and this morning’s reports continue to come in mixed relative to expectations. In terms of bottom-line numbers, the beat rates are still strong, but revenues have been coming up short. Only three of the ten companies to report so far this morning have exceeded revenue forecasts.
Read today’s Morning Lineup to get caught up on news and stock-specific events ahead of the trading day and a further discussion of recent earnings from the banks and overnight events including the latest trade data out of Singapore.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 7/17/19
With two key housing reports due out momentarily, we wanted to take a quick look at how the housing stocks have been faring of late. To start off, let’s take a look at the performance of the iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB), which is primarily made up of homebuilders but also some peripheral companies like Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW). With interest rates cratering in the last few months, the homebuilders have benefitted, and just like the broader market, the group is starting to break out from its recent sideways range. At a current level of $39.33, though, the ETF still has to clear the $40.23 level in order to take out its 52-week high from last summer. How today’s Housing Starts and Building Permits report comes in relative to expectations will go a long way in determining whether that happens today or not.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Ten for Ten
As of this writing, ten companies have reported earnings this morning and all ten have exceeded bottom-line forecasts, so that’s encouraging. As far as revenues are concerned, the results haven’t been as positive with only six companies exceeding top-line forecasts. The biggest winner so far this morning is Goldman Sachs (GS), which is up over 1% after crushing forecasts. On the downside, Domino’s (DPZ) is having a rough morning with a loss of 5% after revenues came up short of forecasts.
In economic news, Import and Export Prices both saw larger than expected declines, while Retail Sales came in stronger than expected. Futures, which had reversed earlier losses remain positive after the report.
Read today’s Morning Lineup to get caught up on news and stock-specific events ahead of the trading day and a further discussion of overnight events including an analysis of the latest ZEW Sentiment Surveys.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 7/16/19
Yesterday, we mentioned that there had been a modest expansion in new highs among S&P 500 stocks as over 13% of stocks in the index hit 52-week highs even as the S&P 500 was flat all day. That reading exceeded the sub-10% levels that we saw on much stronger days last Thursday and Friday.
In going through the charts of the large and mid-cap stocks hitting new highs yesterday, one trend that stood out is that many of them are very extended and probably due for some sort of pullback or at least a pause. This morning, though, we wanted to highlight some of those stocks that made new highs that aren’t as extended (relatively speaking) and are attempting to break out of short to intermediate-term trading ranges. The six names highlighted below are part of a custom portfolio we created highlighting 20 names that fit these criteria. To view the entire portfolio, make sure you are logged in to the site and then click here or on the image below.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Earnings Season Kicks Off and More Fed
Happy earnings season! Citigroup (C) kicked things off this morning with a better than expected report, and the stock is trading up modestly on the news. The pace of earnings reports will be slow today, but things will pick up as the week goes on. While last week was an extremely busy one for Fed speakers, this morning we will also hear from NY Fed President Williams, and then tomorrow will be another busy day with Bostic, Bowman, Kaplan, Powell, and Evans all scheduled to speak. In US economic news, the Empire Manufacturing report for July came in better than expected at 4.3 and up from June’s reading of -8.6.
Read today’s Morning Lineup to get caught up on news and stock-specific events ahead of the trading day and a further discussion of overnight events including the latest round of economic data from China.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 7/15/19
The US Dollar Index is on pace for its fourth straight day of declines today, and while that kind of trend would normally benefit the stocks of US multinationals, in recent days that hasn’t been the case. As noted in last Friday’s Bespoke Report, last week it was the Domestics that outperformed and propelled the market to new highs. Sure, it’s just a couple of days, but for now, at least, investors in the stock market don’t seem to be convinced that the recent dollar weakness will be long-lasting.
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