Sep 17, 2025
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“To hell with facts! We need stories!” – Ken Kesey
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The long-awaited Fed decision day has arrived, and despite an Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for growth of 3.4% in Q3, stronger-than-expected retail sales in August, still relatively low (but admittedly rising jobless claims), and higher-than-normal inflation, the Fed will likely cut rates this afternoon. That’s not to say there is no justification for a rate cut. Continuing jobless claims remain elevated, job growth has practically evaporated, and both the manufacturing sector of the economy and housing remain weak. Additionally, other secondary indicators, such as heavy truck sales, have been particularly weak. There are very few people who would say that the Fed should not be cutting rates today, but given how fast sentiment towards rate cuts has shifted, it’s hard to argue that the President using the bully pulpit of the White House hasn’t at least played in role in shifting the conversation.
Heading into today’s session, equity futures are modestly negative along with treasury yields, crude oil, gold, and crypto. Housing Starts and Building Permits were also just released, and both reports missed expectations by a relatively wide margin, providing more justification for a cut today.
Overnight in Asia and this morning in Europe, equity markets had mixed returns. CPI in the Eurozone came in lower than expected, while it was hotter than expected in the UK. On a y/y basis, CPI for the Eurozone came in slightly lower than expected at 2.0% compared to forecasts for 2.1%.
As we head into this afternoon’s expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve, US stocks have been in rally mode, but they’re not alone, at least from the perspective of a US investor. The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows where various global ETFs closed yesterday relative to their short-term trading ranges. The S&P 500, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 1.5% over the last five trading days and closed yesterday in ‘extreme’ overbought territory (more than 2 standard deviations above its 50-DMA), but it’s not the only one and certainly not the best performer. Of the ETFs shown in the spotlight, three have outperformed the US over the last week, and SPY is the worst performer on a YTD basis.
A look at one-year price charts of all six ETFs shows that they’re all either at or right near 52-week highs heading into today’s session. The only difference is the slope of their advances heading into those highs. The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and the Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) have been moving almost vertically over the last couple of weeks, while the FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) has been moving in more of a sideways range.
Sep 16, 2025
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“The beautiful thing about learning is nobody can take it away from you.” – B.B. King
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We’re looking at another positive start to the market this morning, with futures modestly higher and the Nasdaq leading the way as mega-caps continue to lead the way. This morning’s economic calendar includes Retail Sales and Import Prices at 8:30, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15, and then Business Inventories and Homebuilder Sentiment at 10. After that, pretty much all of the focus will shift to tomorrow’s announcement from the FOMC, where rates are widely expected to be cut 25 bps.
This morning’s gains follow what was mostly a positive session in Asia. The highlight of the region was South Korea, where the Kospi rallied more than 1% for its 11th straight daily gain. In Europe, the tone isn’t as positive as the STOXX 600 trades down 0.2% even as the ZEW survey of economic sentiment unexpectedly increased, although Industrial Production for the Eurozone rose less than expected (0.3% vs 0.4%).
Like the major indices, semiconductor stocks have been lurching to new all-time highs, and when the semis are rallying with the overall market, it’s usually a good sign. After several successful tests of the 50-day moving average (DMA) in the summer, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) finally broke out above resistance last Wednesday.
The breakout to new highs also ended a streak of more than a year during which the index had not traded at an all-time high. At 291 trading days, it was the fifth-longest drought without a new high in the SOX’s history, dating back to 199,4, and the sixth-longest that lasted longer than a year. The longest streak was nearly 4,500 trading days ending in January 2018, and the second-longest ended less than two years ago in December 2023 at 488 trading days.
In the process of breaking out to new highs, the SOX has also traded higher for eight straight trading days, trailing the Nasdaq 100’s streak by a day. That eight-day streak is tied for the longest streak since October 2017, when it went more than two weeks in a row without trading lower. The longest streak was three weeks long, ending in early June 2014.
Over the course of the SOX’s eight-day streak, the index has rallied 8.1%, which comes in modestly ahead of the median gain of 6.9% during the first eight days of all 18 streaks and the sixth best overall.
Sep 15, 2025
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“The best way to make your dreams come true is to wake up.” – Muhammad Ali
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a strong week, markets are getting off to a positive start this week ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. The S&P 500 is indicated to open with a gain of 0.25%. Overnight, Asia was mixed, but Europe has been higher across the board. The economic calendar is light to kick off the week, as the Empire Manufacturing report came in weaker than expected. Later on this week, things will pick up with Retail Sales highlighting Tuesday’s schedule and Housing Starts and Building Permits coming on Wednesday, along with the Fed.
Markets are always forward-looking, and last week they looked forward to this week’s FOMC meeting, where Powell & Co will announce a cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday. Last week, six sectors rallied by at least 1%, including Technology, Utilities, and Communication Services, which rallied more than 2% each. We’ve grown accustomed to seeing Tech and Communication Services rally in unison. However, it’s still hard to get used to seeing the traditionally defensive-oriented Utilities sector rallying alongside those two sectors, but markets are always evolving. On the downside, the only sectors to finish lower last week were Consumer Staples and Materials. They’re also the only two sectors to finish last week below their 50-day moving averages. Consumer Staples is even oversold as well!
Six sectors finished last week at short-term overbought levels heading into this week’s Fed meeting, including three at ‘extreme’ overbought levels. While there is nothing prohibiting overbought sectors from becoming more overbought in the short term, it also sets up the possibility of a sell-the-news reaction to this week’s rate cuts. Just something to be on the lookout for.
Sep 12, 2025
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“A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.” – H.L. Mencken
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Well, the market can’t go up every day. Equity futures are on pace to close out the week on a modestly weaker note as the Dow and S&P 500 are indicated to open the session modestly lower. For its part, the Nasdaq is looking at modest gains following strong earnings from Adobe (ADBE), which has that stock trading up 3%. The 10-year yield is two bps higher, but at less than 4.04%, it’s been a good week for longer-term treasuries. Crude oil is up fractionally, along with most precious metals, but silver is up closer to 2%. In crypto, Bitcoin is looking at modest gain as it flirts with $115K, but Ethereum is back above $4,500 with a gain of over 2%, while Solana, the newest flavor of the month in the space, has surged over 5% to $239 and its highest levels since January.
The uneventful tone in the US follows what was mostly a positive session in Asia as Japan and South Korea rallied to new all-time highs. Outside of Australia, all the major averages in the region finished the week with gains of at least 1%, and in most cases more.
In Europe, the tone has been more subdued as the STOXX is trading slightly lower along with most major country benchmarks. For the week, though, returns have also been positive with gains of roughly 1%. One negative item has been growth in the UK, where GDP was unchanged in July, versus forecasts for an increase of 0.4%. Meanwhile, Industrial Production, which was forecast to be unchanged versus June, dropped by 0.9%.
Yesterday’s weaker-than-expected jobless claims report and mostly in-line CPI solidified the case for multiple FOMC rate cuts in the months ahead. The market responded with a very broad-based rally as over 85% of S&P 500 stocks traded higher on the session, and small caps outperformed large caps. The S&P 500’s 0.85% rally took it to another record closing high as the index now pushes up against a trendline that has been in place for the last year. As shown in the chart below, while stocks sold off sharply after the index bumped up against this rising ceiling early in the year, most times it has encountered this trendline, the pullbacks were modest.
Following yesterday’s rally, the S&P 500 has now moved into ‘extreme’ overbought territory on a short-term basis, which we define as more than two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average (DMA). The last time it traded at more overbought levels was back in June 2023. We’ll have more on these ‘extreme’ overbought readings in tonight’s Bespoke Report.
With yesterday’s new high, the S&P 500 has now had 24 record closing highs this year. While it’s above the historical average of 18 per year, 24 is hardly extreme by any stretch of the imagination, and it’s less than half of last year’s total of 57. On the other hand, back in early April, was anyone thinking we’d be anywhere close to new highs later this year, let alone hitting them multiple times? Be honest!
While September is historically known for its weakness, the S&P 500 has already had four record closing highs in eight trading days this month. That may be short of last year’s total of five, but there’s still another 13 trading days left in the month! The record for closing highs in September was 11 in 1955, followed by 10 in 1995, and 9 in 2017. If your memory is good (and long), you’ll remember that those were all good years, and some people reading this may have even been around for all of them!
Sep 11, 2025
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“We just need every single person in this country to think about where we are and where we want to be. To ask ourselves, is this it?” – Spencer Cox
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Between the 24th anniversary of 9/11 and the political violence in Utah, there’s a lot to think about this morning before even considering the markets. The big news of the day will obviously be the August CPI report, along with jobless claims, which are just hitting the tape as we send this. Overnight, Asia had a mixed session with the Nikkei up over 1%, while Chinese equities also surged 1.7% following reports that the government will provide more stimulus for state-backed banks. On the trade front, though, Mexico said it will increase tariffs on vehicle imports from Asia to 50% from 20%.
In Europe this morning, the STOXX 600 is up 0.4% and every major country equity benchmark is also trading in the green. As expected, the ECB left rates unchanged.
In the US, equity futures were modestly higher heading into the data, while treasury yields were up about 2 bps across the curve. Crude oil and gold were fractionally lower, while cryptocurrencies were broadly higher, with Ethereum up over 3%.
Yesterday’s surge in Oracle (ORCL) was unbelievable. If you saw the chart pattern below for a small-cap stock, it would look impressive, but when one of the largest companies in the world experiences a breakout like that, it’s jaw-dropping.
With yesterday’s surge, shares of ORCL reached ludicrously short-term overbought levels by closing 5.57 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average (DMA). As crazy as that level is, it’s not even the most overbought reading ORCL has ever registered. As shown in the chart below, back on 6/22/17, ORCL shares closed 5.64 standard deviations above their 50-DMA after the company reported an earnings report which showed strong growth in its cloud business.
The chart below looks like a mess, and we don’t expect you to get too much insight from it. What it shows is the daily overbought/oversold readings for the 20 largest stocks in the S&P 500 over the last ten years. The point here is to show that it’s incredibly uncommon for large and mega-cap stocks to reach overbought levels like ORCL did yesterday. It’s only happened a handful of other times!
Sep 10, 2025
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“I believe people have to follow their dreams – I did.” – Larry Ellison
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Between Oracle’s (ORCL) 30%+ surge this morning and a weaker-than-expected PPI report, you would expect futures to be higher, but maybe the biggest surprise is that they aren’t up more. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are indicated to open up 0.5%, and given it’s still September, bulls will take all they can get. Treasury yields are little changed, commodities are fractionally higher, and crypto is seeing the largest gains as Bitcoin and Ethereum are both up over 1.5%.
The market’s focus has now shifted to the upcoming inflation data, but yesterday, Apple (AAPL) was a focus with the launch of the latest iPhone models. As noted in our Chart of the Day from Monday, AAPL’s performance on the day of iPhone announcements has been weak, and yesterday was no exception as the stock fell 1.48%. As shown in the chart, for all the gains AAPL has had in the iPhone era, one of the worst days to own the stock has been on these announcement days.
Normally, AAPL’s stock performs well in the lead-up to iPhone announcements, but that hasn’t been the case this year. Over the last six months, the stock has declined 2%, which is weaker than any of the other nine trillion-dollar S&P 500 stocks. The only other one that is down during this stretch is Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/b), which also happens to be one of the company’s largest shareholders.
More recently, though, AAPL has started to turn the corner. Since the start of August, the stock has rallied 12.9% which ranks as the fourth-best among the trillion-dollar stocks, trailing Alphabet (GOOGL), Broadcom (AVGO), and Tesla (TSLA).
Speaking of the largest stocks, the trillion-dollar club may be on the verge of getting a new member. As of yesterday’s close, shares of Oracle (ORCL) had a market cap of $680 billion. After reporting a blowout earnings report, though, the stock is trading nearly 32% higher in the pre-market, which would take its market cap up just shy of $900 billion, catapulting it from the 13th largest stock in the S&P 500 and into the top ten list. It’s hard to comprehend just how large a move ORCL is having in reaction to its earnings. Only 42 companies in the S&P 500 have a larger market cap than ORCL’s market cap increase since the close yesterday, and it’s also larger than the entire market cap of Disney (DIS). Less than 0.35% of all earnings reports since 2001 have seen a stock rally more than 31% in reaction to earnings, and in those rare instances, the gains have been typically in small and micro-cap stocks.
