Jan 10, 2020
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At its October meeting on 10/30, Fed chair Powell noted that “a significant inflation rise would be needed before any rate hike,” and ever since then markets have been in rally mode as even strong economic data hasn’t been taken as a signal that the FOMC would start to tighten policy. A perfect example is the monthly jobs report. As shown in the table below, on the day of the three Non-Farm Payrolls reports since the FOMC essentially took itself out of the picture, the S&P 500 has been up at least 0.90%. That’s quite a streak. The last time we saw three straight gains of 0.90%+ on the day of employment reports was back in July 2013 and going back to 1998, there have only been four other three-month streaks of 0.9%+.
Jan 9, 2020
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We’ve been discussing oil a lot recently, but that’s because recent moves in the commodity have been bananas. Yesterday, we saw prices rally more than 4% from Tuesday’s close only to finish the day down more than 4%. Even for a volatile commodity like crude oil, moves of that magnitude don’t occur very often. In today’s Morning Lineup, we also took at look at how crude has performed going forward following prior intraday reversals of similar magnitude.
Jan 8, 2020
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Based on the reaction of crude oil to the events of the last week, it doesn’t appear as though investors are concerned about last night’s events. Not only is crude oil now down relative to where it was before last night’s attacks, but it has now given up almost all of its gains that followed last week’s drone strike on Iranian general Soleimani.
Jan 7, 2020
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As mentioned above, the euro has been acting well relative to the dollar in recent weeks, and that’s partly due to what has been a strong showing in economic data relative to expectations. As shown in the chart below, the currency has broken out of its downtrend relative to the dollar carving out an uptrend with closed above both its 50 and 200-DMAs. While the currency has rallied, it’s still just in the middle of its uptrend from the October lows.
Jan 6, 2020
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Jan 3, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
