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At its October meeting on 10/30, Fed chair Powell noted that “a significant inflation rise would be needed before any rate hike,” and ever since then markets have been in rally mode as even strong economic data hasn’t been taken as a signal that the FOMC would start to tighten policy.  A perfect example is the monthly jobs report.  As shown in the table below, on the day of the three Non-Farm Payrolls reports since the FOMC essentially took itself out of the picture, the S&P 500 has been up at least 0.90%.  That’s quite a streak.  The last time we saw three straight gains of 0.90%+ on the day of employment reports was back in July 2013 and going back to 1998, there have only been four other three-month streaks of 0.9%+.

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