Jul 28, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Quote of the Day: “Every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.” – William Feather
After nearing $2,000 per ounce overnight, gold has sold off pretty sharply. US futures are also lower on some negative earnings reports from the likes of 3M (MMM) and McDonald’s (MCD). The GOP unveiled its proposals to replace the CARES Act, so now the two sides can start to try and come to an agreement (that should be interesting). Data flow today is on the quiet side, but 10 AM’s release of Consumer Confidence will be an interesting one to watch.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, key earnings news in Europe and the US, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
When we said it doesn’t get any worse than this, we were referring to the S&P 500’s seasonal trends for the upcoming month based on the last ten years. As shown in the snapshot below from our Seasonality tool, SPY’s median performance from the close on 7/28 through 8/28 has been a decline of 2.40%. Of all the rolling one-month periods throughout the year, the upcoming month ranks worse than every other one.
Jul 27, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Get ready for a busy week of economic, earnings, political, and Federal Reserve news. Futures are indicated higher to start to the week on little in the way of a concrete catalyst, but gold is surging as the dollar continues its decline.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, key earnings news in Europe and the US, global economic data, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, including some new charts tracking the outbreak, and much more.
OK. There’s a lot not to like about the world around us right now, whether it be from a societal, health, or economic perspective. While there are also plenty of silver linings, it’s not likely we’ll ever be looking back at this period as a ‘golden’ year. That doesn’t mean gold can’t shine, though. Prices are surging to kick off the week and appear locked and loaded on an eventual run to $2,000 per ounce as the precious metal is on pace for its 7th straight day of gains.
Longer-term, today’s rally has also pushed gold to new record highs eclipsing the prior record high of $1920.7 from September 2011. With a gap of nearly nine years since its last record high, it may seem like a long time since gold last made a new high, the prior gap was much longer. After topping $800 per ounce in early 1980, gold then went more than 25 years without making another new high. Talk about a drought!
Jul 24, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
It’s not feeling like a Friday in the financial markets this morning as negative earnings from Intel (INTC) weigh on sentiment. S&P 500 futures are indicated to open down about 0.4% while the Nasdaq is taking it much harder with a decline of 1%. While traders couldn’t get enough of big tech last week, they cant get away from it fast enough this week.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, key earnings news in Europe and the US, global PMI data, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
The majority of companies have been reporting better than expected EPS and revenues this earnings season, and most of these positive surprises have been greeted with rising stock prices. One exception, though, appears to be large-cap tech. The latest examples this week include Microsoft and Intel. While both stocks reported better than expected EPS and sales, their earnings reports have been met with selling. In the case of MSFT yesterday, its 4.35% decline was the most negative earnings reaction for the stock in more than four years. INTC, meanwhile, is already trading down over 13% in reaction to earnings after issuing a weak forecast. The last time it had a worse one-day reaction to earnings? 2002.
The sell the news reaction we’re seeing so far in tech is the result of two things. First, the stocks have run so much heading into earnings season that the bar was set extraordinarily high. Second, valuations. The chart below shows where the current P/E ratios of S&P 500 sectors stand relative to their 10-year averages. Currently, the S&P 500 is in the 99.9th percentile relative to all other periods in the last ten years, and that high reading is being driven by lofty valuation in Consumer Discretionary (99.8th percentile) and Technology (99.6th percentile).
Jul 23, 2020
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Futures started to rally ahead of the European open, and have given up some of those gains as we head into the trading day. The key stock to watch today will be Microsoft (MSFT), which despite positive earnings is trading lower in the pre-market. The stock had a strong run leading into the earnings report, so it’s understandable that investors took profits, but we’ll have to watch to see if this type of reaction to earnings becomes a trend.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, key earnings news in Europe and the US, global economic data, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Whenever the market strings together daily declines, it’s often referred to as being in a funk. In the case of the Nasdaq, though, the last two months have been ‘funk-free’. With yesterday’s gain, the Nasdaq has now gone 48 trading days without seeing back to back declines. In the entire history of the Nasdaq dating back to 1971, this current streak is now tied for the longest streak of all-time. Not only that but because yesterday was positive, the current streak is guaranteed to go at least another trading day.
Jul 22, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Futures are mixed this morning but off their overnight lows following the US closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston. Data flow is quiet this morning, but the pace of action is going to pick up substantially with earnings after the close from Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA) among others. The big question will be whether or not these companies can live up to the higher expectations that have been building up in the weeks leading up to these reports.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, key earnings news in Europe and the US, global economic data, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
With each passing day, as growth stocks seemingly move in one direction (higher) and value stocks remain stagnant and drift lower, the spread in performance between the two investment strategies continues to widen. In the 100 trading days through Monday, the S&P 500 Growth index was up over 14% while the S&P 500 Value index declined 8% for a spread of 22.5 percentage points. When was the last time the spread got that wide? Well, never since at least 1996.
The chart below shows the rolling 100-trading day spread between the performance of the S&P 500 Growth and Value indices going back to 1996. Prior to Monday, the record spread between the two indices was 22.1 percentage points which was reached during the dot-com boom in December 1999. Besides that period, the only time the spread was even close to current levels was in March 2009 when it topped 17 percentage points. In other words, the last two times the performance spread between the S&P 500 Value and Growth indices was anywhere close to as wide as it is now represented one of the worst and the best entry points for the broader market in the last 25 years. Make sense of that.
Jul 21, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Risk assets around the globe are rallying again this morning on news that the European Council has reached an agreement to a budget and COVID recovery package. The key point of the agreement is that EU fiscal policy will be backed by mutual taxation and will be used as a fiscal stabilizer.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, global economic data, improved trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
By now you’ve heard about how uneven yesterday’s rally in the market was. While the S&P 500 was up nearly 1%, the majority of stocks in the index were actually down on the day. The chart of sector performance for the day sums things up pretty well. Consumer Discretionary (pretty much entirely the result of Amazon) was up over 3%, Technology tacked on over 2.5%, and Communication Services rallied over 1.25%. Every other sector, though, was down on the day. Not only were they down, but they were down sharply. In fact, four sectors were down over 1% even though the S&P 500 rallied 0.84%. Depending on the sectors you’re overweight in, yesterday was either really good or really bad.
