Aug 12, 2020
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“From neither the White House nor any other senior administration post would there come any leadership, any attempt to set priorities, any attempt to coordinate activities, any attempt to deliver resources.” – John M. Barry, The Great Influenza
In reading the quote above, critics of the President would think that it’s a description of the current attitude in the White House towards the Covid-19 outbreak. It’s actually from the book, The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Plague in History. Back in 1918. Amazingly, President Wilson never made a single public statement related to the flu pandemic and acted like it never happened and instead had a singular focus on mobilizing the country for WWI.
In looking at today’s “Overnight Trading” chart from the Morning Lineup, it looks the exact same as yesterday’s chart. For the sake of the bulls, let’s hope that today’s intraday trading for US stocks isn’t a re-run of Tuesday as well.
Joe Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris wasn’t particularly surprising to the market as she was already considered one of the leading contenders along with Susan Rice, and the pick makes sense for Biden as Harris will likely be solid on the campaign trail and go after Trump in the way that a VP candidate is expected to. While the selection isn’t likely to provide much of a boost for Biden, at this point it likely won’t hurt him either. Harris wasn’t exactly successful as a Presidential candidate in her own right, but back in 2008 neither was Biden and that didn’t hurt Obama.
On the inflation front, after yesterday’s PPI doubled expectations (+0.6% vs 0.3% forecast), today’s CPI for July saw the exact same print on a headline basis relative to the same consensus expectation for an increase of 0.3%.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, market performance in the US and Europe, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Since last Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 is down 0.46%, but the decline has been far from broad-based. As shown to the right, four sectors are up over 1% during that period with Industrials and Financials both rallying more than 4%. On the downside, Technology has been the main drag with a drop of over 3.6% while Communication Services has dropped 1.8%. Of the 500 stocks in the index, nearly two-thirds are actually up during that span, so the vast majority of stocks in the index and the US for that matter have risen during this period.
Aug 11, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Can we make it eight in a row? Based on this morning’s move in the futures, the DJIA and S&P 500 are both on pace to extend their current seven-day winning streaks to eight. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, is working on its own streak as it is on pace to underperform the S&P 500 for the third straight day.
In economic news, the NFIB Small Business Optimism report missed expectations, and PPI came in much higher than expected. That hotter than expected inflation data hasn’t had any impact on futures as of yet, though.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, market performance in the US and Europe, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
As the S&P 500 sets its sights on new record highs, its cumulative A/D line has already set the path. With a number of positive readings in the last few days, the cumulative A/D line has broken out of its short consolidation range from the last couple of weeks. That’s an encouraging sign for the direction of the market going forward, even as tech starts to take a back seat.
Aug 10, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“There is a huge difference between a good trade and good trading.” – Steve Burns
The week looks to be kicking off on a quiet note, but what else would you expect? It’s August. S&P 500 futures are modestly higher, and Nasdaq futures are modestly lower. That may not sound like anything particularly significant, but keep in mind that the Nasdaq has been up 1%+ on eight of the last nine Mondays and positive on 13 of the last 14, so down Mondays have been pretty uncommon lately.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, economic news in Europe and the US, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Apple’s (AAPL) extraordinary run in this year has the stock closer to achieving what would surely be a monumental feat. The chart below shows the historical market cap of AAPL against the Russell 2000. For most of 2019, the market cap spread between the two was over a trillion dollars. But then COVID hit. As AAPL’s stock was much less impacted than the companies in the Russell 2000, the market cap spread between the two has narrowed substantially this year, and on Thursday reached a record low of just under $250 billion. On Friday, the spread narrowed out again to just under $340 billion. Even at that level, though, it’s pretty amazing that there’s such a narrow spread between the market cap of one company and an entire index- even if that index is comprised of small-cap companies.
Aug 7, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.” – Sir John Templeton
1.5 million. That’s the key number for the day. Will the July Non-Farm Payrolls report come in higher or lower than that? Concerns have risen in recent weeks that renewed restrictions due to the COVID outbreak would hurt employment, and today’s report will shed light on those concerns. Whatever the number comes in at, keep in mind that there is clear evidence that the latest wave of the outbreak is receding, so that should help numbers going forward.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, key earnings and economic news in Europe and the US, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Wednesday was the 150th trading day of the year, and during that time the Nasdaq 100 has been up 64% of the time. In the history of the index since 1985, there have only been two other years where the winning percentage of the index was stronger at this point in the year. In 2017, Nasdaq 100 was up on the day 66% of the time in the first 150 trading days of the year while in 1995, it was up 64.7% of the time. While there have been times when the Nasdaq 100 was slightly more automatic than it has been in 2020, it hasn’t been often.
Aug 6, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Quote of the Day: “Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” – Paul Samuelson
Tell the above to the new breed of vintage 2020 traders. They want action and they want it now. Many of them would also probably gladly take $800 and go to Vegas or bet on sports instead, except they can’t! Futures have rallied off their recent lows following a strong read on initial and continuing jobless claims. Initial claims fell to their lowest levels since March (1.186 million) while continuing claims hit their lowest levels since April. Earnings remain the primary driver of stock action this morning both in Europe and the US and for today at least, the results and the stock price reactions haven’t been all that great. Lastly, headlines regarding any potential agreement (or disagreement) on a stimulus bill out of Washington will also cause back and forth swings.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, key earnings and economic news in Europe and the US, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
The S&P 500 has now rallied 49% from its closing low on March 23rd, which is an exceptional rally by any standard. So, where does that leave us now, and how extended is the market? One way to measure this on a long-term basis is to compare the S&P 500’s price versus its 200-day moving average. Through yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 was 9% above its 200-DMA compared to a long term average of 2.4%. By this measure, the S&P 500 is more ‘extended’ than normal, but not really near extremes. Throughout history, the S&P 500 has been further above its 200-DMA on 22% of all trading days. More recently, in the last five years, we have also seen plenty of prior occurrences where the S&P 500 was at more extreme levels.
Aug 5, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Quote of the Day: “There is a time to go long, a time to go short, and a time to go fishing.” – Jesse Livermore
Markets are set up for another positive day as US equity futures are firmly in positive territory following some strong economic data out of Europe that followed a weak Services PMI reading out of China. The ADP Private Payrolls report for July was just released and came in well short of expectations, rising 167K compared to forecasts for a gain of 1.2 million. That’s a pretty big miss, but this employment data has been pretty difficult to forecast lately.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, key earnings and economic news in Europe and the US, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Gold is trading up over 1% this morning and putting the $2,000 level further in the rearview mirror. Today’s gain represents the 13th positive day for gold in the last 14 trading days as investors rotate into the asset class as a store of value.
In a world that has gone increasingly digital in the last several years, bitcoin has served as a form of digital gold. In the last year, though, bitcoin hasn’t done nearly as well as physical gold. As shown in the chart below, the front-month gold contract is up nearly 40% over the last year while bitcoin is barely unchanged.
