Oct 21, 2024
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Unlike the mediocre, intrepid spirits seek victory over those things that seem impossible.” – Ferdinand Magellan
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Last week marked the sixth straight week of gains for the S&P 500, but the tone to kick off this week has been subdued. Pre-market equity futures have been lower all morning and picking up steam to the downside. European shares are down close to 1% with Germany leading the way as PPI fell 0.5% or more than twice the consensus forecast for a decline of 0.2%. Treasury yields and crude oil, which are also both higher, aren’t helping the sentiment backdrop for equities either.
The only economic report on the calendar this morning is Leading Indicators at 10 AM, but it will be a busy week of data in terms of both earnings and economic reports.
Gold is trading up nearly 1% this morning and on pace for its fifth straight daily gain and fourth record closing high in a row. It’s been an amazing year for gold, and one example of that strength is that this current streak of record-closing highs is the longest since a six-day streak at the end of…late September.
If today’s gains hold, it would be the 43rd time this year that the stock closed at a record high. As shown in the chart below, that would rank as the second most record closing highs for a calendar year, trailing only the 57 record closing highs in 1979. With 49 trading days left in the year, that record in 1979 may not necessarily be destined, but it’s certainly within reach.
Along with the surging price of gold, gold miner stocks have been on a nice run this year. While gold is up just under 33% for the year, the S&P 1500 Gold Industry index has rallied even more with a gain of 37.3%.
Logically, it would make sense that gold stocks have been rallying by similar amounts as the commodity, but that has hardly been the case over the long term. Since the start of 1995, the S&P 1500 Gol Industry has rallied 57.1%, but gold is up more than ten times that at 615.3%!
Oct 18, 2024
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If machines are going to take jobs away from the worker, then he will need to find something else to do. Perhaps he’ll get back to the soil. But we must care for him during the period of change. We must keep him away from red literature, red ruses; we must see that his mind remains healthy.” – Al Capone
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 is up a half a percent, the Nasdaq 100 is down a half a percent, and the small-cap Russell 2,000 is up 2.2% on the week as we get set for Friday trading. But S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are trading up about a half a percent ahead of today’s open on the back of strong earnings results from Netflix (NFLX) after the close yesterday.
As shown below, the S&P remains elevated relative to its normal trading range and its 10-day advance/decline line has just ticked slightly back into overbought territory as well.
Oct 17, 2024
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Nothing’s worse than a guy who loses fair and square and then whines about it.” – Evel Knievel
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Retail sales, jobless claims, and the Philly Fed report all came in better than expected a few minutes ago at 8:30 AM ET, and we’ll have more coverage of these indicators later today.
After major chip-equipment manufacturer ASML spooked the Tech world earlier this week with a weaker than expected earnings report, Taiwan Semi (TSM) has helped to right the ship this morning with an earnings triple play (beat EPS, beat sales, raised guidance). The stock is reacting to the news extremely positively in pre-market trading. Shares are currently set to open higher by 9.1%, which would mark a new all-time high for the stock. As shown below, a 9.1% gap higher for TSM this morning would also be its most positive open following an earnings report since at least 2012.
Small-cap indices have been charging higher over the last week with the Russell 2,000 (IWM) up nearly 4% and the Micro-Cap ETF (IWC) up 6%. As shown below, small-cap index ETFs are currently the most overbought, then mid-caps, then large-caps. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is actually down over the last week, but its price is still slightly overbought.
Oct 16, 2024
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“I took the two most expensive aspirins in history.” – Wally Pipp
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 saw a downside intraday reversal yesterday after European chip-equipment manufacturer ASML reported weaker than expected numbers. As shown below, SPY is currently trading well above its 50-day moving average and is about $16 above key support. We’ll be treating any downside move as simple mean reversion until the point at which support at the $563.5 level breaks.
The semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell more than 5% yesterday on the ASML news, resulting in a large red bar on the ETF’s chart. Remember that even though the broad market has been chugging along making new high after new high recently, the semis — the Transports of the 21st century — have yet to do so.
Oct 15, 2024
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I always performed out of fear of failure – and that’s a tough way to play. It was as if my back was to the wall and I was constantly surrounded by very dangerous people that were not friendly to me.” – Keith Hernandez
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Major US banks and brokers are in the news once again this morning as all three that reported earnings ahead of today’s open (BAC, C, GS) beat both top and bottom line estimates. Coming into today, this space is already trading extremely overbought, but share prices are rallying again in the pre-market in reaction to the positive earnings news.
As shown below, since earnings season began last week, the “big six” of the banks and brokers are up an average of 6.7% based on where shares are trading in the pre-market this morning.
Oct 14, 2024
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“You can’t stay in your corner of the forest waiting for others to come to you. You have to go to them sometimes.” – A.A. Milne
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Dow futures are trading just south of the flat line this morning, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are trading slightly higher. There are no earnings reports to speak of today, but tomorrow morning we’ll hear from three more of the “big six” US banks and brokers: Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Goldman Sachs (GS).
The Q3 earnings season began last Friday with five companies reporting before the open. All five beat consensus EPS estimates, while four of five beat sales estimates (WFC was the lone miss). As shown below, four of the five companies that reported to kicks things off posted strong share-price gains on Friday. While BNY Mellon (BK) posted a “meh” reaction with a small drop of 0.4%, BlackRock (BLK) gained 3.6%, JP Morgan (JPM) gained 4.4%, Wells Fargo (WFC) gained 5.6%, and Fastenal (FAST) gained 9.8%. FAST’s 9.8% gain was its best earnings reaction day in five years, while Wells Fargo had its best earnings day since July 2022.
