Dec 10, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
A fool and his money are soon parted.” – Thomas Tusser
After a disappointing reversal yesterday, Technology and the Nasdaq are under moderate pressure this morning as shares of Airbnb (ABNB) are set to start trading today. In economic news, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected (853k vs 725K estimate) while continuing claims also topped forecasts coming in at 5.75 million versus forecasts for a level of 5.21 million. In inflation news, CPI topped forecasts as both headline and core CPI came in at 0.2% versus forecasts for an increase of 0.1% in both indices. All in, not a good slate of economic data.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, global central bank moves, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
As mentioned above, investors/traders with a focus on the Technology sector and Nasdaq woke up today still feeling a bit apprehensive about current prices. As illustrated in the intraday chart for the Nasdaq, that index broke its short-term uptrend that had been in place since the days prior to Thanksgiving. If the selling for the Nasdaq continues in the days ahead, look for support to come into play right around the 12,000 level (~3% below current levels).
While the Nasdaq broke a short-term uptrend, small caps continued to hold their trend. In the case of the Russell 2000, that index actually saw a modest bounce late in the day Wednesday as it traded down to its December uptrend line. If that uptrend breaks, look for support to come in around 1,850 (again around 3% below current levels).
Dec 9, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“There’s a way to do it better. Find it.“ – Thomas Edison
Not that it ever left the scene, but stimulus talks are back front and center this morning as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin offered a new White House plan that includes direct payments to Americans instead of enhanced unemployment benefits. Mitch McConnell also offered a Senate plan that would punt on the issue of liability protection if Democrats agreed to wait on aid to state and local governments, but Democrats rejected both proposals.
In markets this morning, futures are mixed with the S&P 500 and DJIA slightly higher and the Nasdaq slightly lower heading into the open. Besides mortgage applications, which showed a WoW decline, the only other economic data on the calendar today is JOLTS and Wholesale Inventories.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, economic data out of Asia, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
The Nasdaq 100 has a lot to be thankful for these days. Besides a fractional decline on the Monday before Thanksgiving, the index hasn’t had a down day since. That works out to ten straight positive days for the index (and actually eleven days for QQQ, the ETF which tracks the index). Ten straight days is pretty impressive, and it’s been about a year since the index last experienced a run of at least ten straight days of gains. Going back to 1985, there have been 14 prior winning streaks of at least ten trading days for the Nasdaq 100 and interestingly enough, 11 of those (79%) went on to at least an 11th day. The longest of those winning streaks stretched out to 19 trading days way back in May 1990.
Dec 8, 2020
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“Now that I can work from home, I simply don’t have an excuse to quit.” – Howard Stern
As the UK starts jabbing its first patients with the COVID vaccine and the FDA debates whether to give the go-ahead here in the US, futures are indicated lower this morning on news the Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell will not agree to the currently proposed bipartisan stimulus plan. McConnell has been adamant on a package that includes a liability shield for businesses. In other news, Small Business confidence dropped slightly more than expected, Productivity rose less than expected, and Unit Labor Costs fell less than expected.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, economic data out of Asia and Europe, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
The current wave of COVID in the US generally started in the Midwest and spread around the rest of the country. While hospitalizations in the Midwest remain the highest of any region in the country, the rate has been declining. As for the rest of the country, the other three regions of the country are clustered around the 300 level but have seen their rates rising quickly. While the trend is worrisome now, the hope is that eventually, these three regions of the country follow the trend of the Midwest.
Dec 7, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence—it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” – Peter Drucker
After most major US indices closed at record highs yesterday and the dollar finished at multi-year lows, equities are taking a bit of a breather this morning. Reports that talks over a Brexit deal are on the verge of collapsing has contributed to the negative tone, but this morning’s weakness is more related to profit-taking and a pause in the rally than anything else. In economic news, the calendar is quiet here in the US, but Chinese Exports for November, which were released overnight, surged more than expected.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, a discussion of the latest Brexit talks, Chinese trade data, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
The chart below is from the second page of our Morning Lineup and shows the relative strength of the S&P 500 versus the US Long Bond Future over the last year. When the line is in the green zone it indicates that equities are outperforming Treasuries. Conversely, when the line is in the red zone, it indicates that bonds are outperforming stocks. What’s notable about the chart today is that as of Friday, the relative strength of the S&P 500 versus the Long Bond Future is higher now than it has been at any point in the last year.
Dec 4, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“I buy when other people are selling.” – J. Paul Getty
It’s safe to assume then that Mr. Getty hasn’t been buying much lately. Futures are higher again this morning putting the S&P 500 on pace for its fourth positive week in the last five, but in order to get there, we’ll have to get through the November jobs report. There have been some concerns about the health of the jobs market lately, but secondary indicators we track have been holding up relatively well.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, a discussion of the latest OPEC talks, factory orders in Germany, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
We’ve illustrated the positive breadth in the market in a number of different ways lately, but here’s another. For the last few days now, all 24 of the S&P 500’s Industry Groups have been trading above their 200-DMA. Looking back at the last five years, that doesn’t happen all that often. The last time there was such a high reading was at the start of the year on January 2nd. While the year may be on pace to finish right where it started in terms of breadth, it was far from a straight line as this reading went from 100% down to 0% and back to 100%. You can’t get any wider of a range than that!
Dec 3, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“Confidence is not ‘I will profit on this trade.’ Confidence is ‘I will be fine if I don’t profit from this trade.’” – Yvan Byeajee
It’s a busy day for economic data, and it’s starting off on the right foot with both initial and continuing jobless claims coming in better than expected, albeit at still terrible levels. As bad as the numbers are, though, it’s encouraging that claims are moving in the right direction. With claims behind us, the next report of focus is the ISM Services report at 10 AM Eastern. Expectations for this report are also low as activity levels have started to decline in recent weeks as case counts rise.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, Markit PMI data for the services sector, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
The latest COVID wave has clearly been the most severe in terms of the number of confirmed cases, geographic reach, hospitalizations, and soon to be deaths. The chart below compares the 7-day average number of US confirmed COVID cases (red line) versus the relative strength of our basket of “Stocks for the COVID Economy” that we first published in early March versus the S&P 500 (blue line).
In the early stages of this wave, right before and up to the announcement of the vaccine from Pfizer (PFE) on 11/9, COVID stocks underperformed the S&P 500 rather sharply, but since 11/9, COVID stocks have once again started to outperform the S&P 500. They still remain well off their highs on a relative basis, but the initial reaction to vaccine news appears to have been overdone.
