Dec 29, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple.” – Steve Jobs
Major US equity indices are on pace to open at new record highs this morning after futures have traded higher all night. Over in Japan, the Nikkei traded to its best level in more than three decades, and European equities are also trading higher. Treasuries, on the other hand, have seen a bit of selling pressure as yields are modestly higher. There’s little data again this morning, so if the market is going to focus on anything, it will be how the Senate reacts to the passage of a measure in the House to increase the already passed $600 relief payments up to $2,000.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more. Also, if you’re near a TV, check us out on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning at 8:50 AM Eastern.
While equities are poised to open at record highs, US Treasuries have been stuck in a steady downtrend for months now. The charts below of the US Treasury Long Bond future show its daily performance over the last six months (top) and the intraday performance over the last fifteen trading days (bottom). A quick look shows two similar trends – a steady stream of lower highs. If you look a little closer at the intraday chart at the bottom, though, the Long Bond future showed some signs yesterday of attempting to break its downtrend. Yields are higher this morning, so at the outset, there won’t be any follow-through to yesterday’s test, but if prices reverse course and rally today, there just might be a contra-trend rally to close out the year heading into 2021.
Dec 28, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“Business opportunities are like buses, there’s always another one coming.” – Richard Branson
After a long holiday weekend, US equity markets are open for just four days again this week as Friday is New Years Day. This is the only time of year that you get two three-day weekends in a row for the market, and it doesn’t even happen every year. In fact, with New Years Day falling on a Saturday next year, there will be no market holiday in observance of New Years Day either the Friday before or the Monday after.
Markets are kicking off the week on a positive note as President Trump finally signed the COVID relief bill. The only economic data point on the calendar is the Dallas Fed at 10:30 eastern. The rest of the week looks to be quiet- at least in terms of scheduled data.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
After a period of consolidation last week, global equities are looking to end the last four trading days of the year on a positive note. The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer tool shows international regional ETFs and summarizes their performance as well as where they currently stand relative to their trading ranges. Of the 18 ETFs shown, the only one that finished higher last week was the European Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ). ETFs which saw the largest pullbacks last week were Latin America (ILF), Emerging Markets (VWO & EEM), and Asia ex-Japan (AAXJ). Despite the losses, though, every ETF shown finished the week above its 50-day moving average, and most were overbought as well.
Dec 24, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“‘Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.”
It’s very quiet on Wall Street this morning as there’s little in the way of news or events to speak of. That’s the way it should be for Christmas Eve, though. Today’s session for equities is an abbreviated one with the market closing for the week at 1 PM. If you celebrate the holiday, have a great Christmas. If not, enjoy the three-day weekend anyway!
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, the latest on Brexit, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
Small-cap investors have gotten an early Christmas present this year as just this week, the Russell 2000’s rally off its closing low in March topped 100%. In the history of the Russell 2000, there has only been one other time where the index rallied more than 100% from a low within a year or less and only one other time where the rally topped 90%. The biggest rally within a year of a closing low was in the period ending June 1983 while the 90%+ rally was in the period ending in March 2010 coming out of the financial crisis.
Dec 23, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“If you’re in a bad situation, don’t worry it’ll change. If you’re in a good situation, don’t worry it’ll change.” – John A. Simone Sr.
The President reminded markets last night that you should never count your chickens until they are hatched. After stimulus seemed like a done deal yesterday, the President’s Twitter announcement last night that unless COVID relief payments were increased from $600 to $2000 per American, he may not sign the bill. Whether this is just a bluff remains to be seen, but it definitely throws a wrench into the plans of lawmakers in DC, but more importantly, Americans who were just yesterday planning on receiving some relief.
It’s already been a busy morning of economic data. Durable Goods were mixed relative to expectations and Personal Income and Spending saw larger than expected declines. The one bright spot was employment as both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims came in significantly better than expected.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, a discussion of President Trump’s veto threat, mortgage applications, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
Looking at some areas of the market these days, it seems as though the equity market does nothing but go up. While that may be the case in certain sectors, for the broader market we’ve essentially been experiencing a sideways consolidation for most of this month helping the S&P 500 work off overbought conditions.
The first example of this can be seen in the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average spread. While the S&P 500 traded at extreme overbought levels in mid-November, those extremes have been gradually worked off in the last month, and as of yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 was just barely at overbought levels.
For individual stocks, it’s a similar picture. Back on 11/16 when the S&P 500 reached its peak overbought reading, 73% of stocks in the S&P 500 were trading at overbought levels. In the month and a week since then, though, the legion of overbought stocks has been winnowed down to less than half of its recent peak level to yesterday’s reading of 32.4%. Markets can’t go straight up forever, but periods of consolidation like the ones we have seen in recent weeks are often just the rest markets needs after a sharp run higher.
Dec 22, 2020
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“I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” – Isaac Newton
Just in time for Christmas, the long tortuous process of a stimulus deal is finally behind us, but there is still a lot of data to contend with over the next two trading days. With the stimulus passed, there’s a likelihood that investors will look past any weakness as there’s help on the way, so that’s something to keep in mind as the data rolls out. In COVID news, as shown on page six of the Morning Lineup, the number of confirmed cases is showing some signs of a peak, and hospitalizations in Midwest states that were hit the earliest in this most recent wave, have shown signs of receding.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, a recap of Machine Tool Orders in Japan, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
When a stock gaps up 3% at the open, it doesn’t typically attract a lot of attention, but when that gap is coming from the largest publicly traded company in the United States, it’s worth highlighting. It has now been more than three months since shares of Apple (AAPL) traded at a new high, but it’s starting to get close. The stock is indicated to open at $132 this morning, which would put it less than 5% from a new high and at a level it has only closed above one other time in its history (9/1).
Dec 21, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“The path to innovation begins with curiosity” – Robert Iger, The Ride of a Lifetime
After opening right around the flat-line Sunday evening, futures plummetted overnight right in unison with the European open as fears over the spread of a ‘mutant’ more contagious strain of COVID in the UK have prompted travel restrictions into and out of the country. While the COVID news in the UK seems like a reasonable catalyst, we have a hard time squaring that with the fact that the UK news was out early Sunday and futures opened last night flat to slightly higher. A more likely explanation may be the fact that investors are taking profits into what will be an illiquid close to the year.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, a recap of the fiscal deal in Washington, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
The charts below show the S&P 500’s daily performance over the last six months and on an intraday basis for the last 15 trading days. After taking today’s declines into account, the S&P 500 will open the week for trading right about where it was ten days ago. Based on just the opening levels at least, today’s weakness will do little to break any significant support levels.
