Dec 30, 2025
Before getting to this morning’s pre-market analysis, be sure to watch this CNBC segment with Bespoke’s Paul Hickey discussing the market’s set-up heading into 2026.
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“I wake up every day and I can’t wait to go to work, and that’s a gift. Not too many people have the opportunity to feel that way.” – Tiger Woods
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
On another likely quiet day for the US markets, futures are lower, but no major index is indicated to open down more than 0.05%, so it wouldn’t take more than a sneeze to flip things around to the positive side. In most other areas of the market, current action is also subdued as treasury yields, crude oil, and crypto assets are all modestly higher. The one area that remains volatile is in the metals markets, as gold is up nearly 2%, while silver is up over 7% and platinum is up over 5%. We saw big negative reversals in these markets yesterday, so if you’re a bull on the sector, you’re breathing a sigh of relief today.
It will be a somewhat busy day for data today as we’ll get the weekly ADP Employment, FHFA House Price Index, and the Chicago PMI for December. The latter report always seems to be negative these days, but expectations are already low at 39.5. In addition to these three reports, we’ll also get the minutes from the December Fed meeting.
In Asia overnight and Europe this morning, it was a tale of two markets as Asia was mostly lower while Europe experienced broad-based gains.
We’re obviously in one of the least volatile periods of the year for stocks, and the chart below illustrates that trend. When it comes to the daily volume in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relative to its 200-DMA, Christmas Eve ranks as the day with the least volume of any day of the year, when the median daily volume has been 62.5% below its 200-DMA. The next closest day in terms of low volume is July 3rd, when the median daily volume has been 51.4% below its 200-DMA. It makes sense that these two days would be quiet, given that they precede holidays, but they’re also both days when the market closes early, so the window for trading is shorter.
What was surprising about this chart is when the high-volume days tend to occur. With September and October being the most volatile months of the year, you would expect to see volume spikes during those months as well. While volume tends to come in above average during the fall, the period of highest volume relative to the 200-DMA occurs in late February and March.
One area of the market where volumes weren’t light yesterday was in the commodities market, and more specifically, Silver. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) had its highest volume day since February 2021, and after hitting a record high last Friday, plunged over 7%, forming a massive island reversal. As shown in the chart below, the gaps between last Friday’s trading range and the day before (Thursday) and the day after (Monday) were extremely wide, with more than a full percentage point separating the sessions on both sides.
Dec 29, 2025
Before getting to this morning’s pre-market analysis, be sure to watch this CNBC segment with Bespoke’s Paul Hickey discussing the market’s set-up heading into 2026.
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Investors should purchase stocks like they purchase groceries, not like they purchase perfume.” – Benjamin Graham
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
With just three trading days left in the year, below are a number of snapshots from our Trend Analyzer tool highlighting where various asset classes, sectors, and large-cap stocks stand on a year-to-date basis and relative to their 50-DMAs.
Gold (GLD) is now easily the top performing major asset class in 2025 with a 70%+ gain. The next-best is the “rest of world” equity market with the all country ex US ETF (CWI) up 29.2% YTD. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) ranks third with a 22% gain.
There are three key asset classes in the red this year: Bitcoin (IBIT), the dollar (UUP), and oil (USO).
Of the ETFs shown, the dollar (UUP) is the most oversold heading into year end, while gold (GLD) is the most overbought.
Looking at major domestic equity index ETFs, mid-caps have been “mid” in 2025 with only single-digit gains, while large-caps are up closer to 20%. Heading into 2026, every single index ETF shown is above its 50-DMA, with the large majority overbought.
Dec 26, 2025
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“Destiny is what you are supposed to do in life. Fate is what kicks you in the ass to make you do it.” – Henry Miller
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Good morning and happy Friday, on what is likely to be one of the most uneventful trading days this year. US equity futures are fractionally lower, treasury yields are little changed, and crude oil is slightly higher. The only area of the market with real activity is in gold and other metals. The yellow metal is up “only” 0.75% to $4,537 per ounce, but silver is up close to 4%, while Platinum is up double that, trading at 2,414.40 per ounce. On December 10, platinum closed at $ 1,647.50, and in the 16 days since then, it has rallied by 47%.
While it has been a quiet week for US equities, Asian markets haven’t been sleeping on Christmas. Overnight, the Nikkei rallied 0.7% to take its weekly gain to 2.5% while South Korea gained 0.5% for a total weekly gain of 2.7%. There was some welcome inflation news as Tokyo CPI slowed to 2.0% y/y and 2.3% y/y on a core basis. Despite that news, two-year JGB yields hit the highest level since 1996. In Europe, markets are even quieter than they are here as most countries remain closed for the Christmas holiday.
The S&P 500’s average daily move since 1953 has been up or down 0.67%, but that hasn’t been the case in the final week of December or the second half of the month, for that matter. The table below is like the one from our Chart of the Day from Tuesday (12/23), where we looked at the S&P 500’s average and median daily change for every day of the year. In this one, we show the S&P 500’s average daily percentage move (up or down) for every day of the year since 1953.
Volatility on the day after Christmas has been below average with an average daily move of 0.61%, but it still tends to be the most volatile day of the year between Christmas and year-end. The least volatile day of the week and the year, for that matter, is December 28th (0.40%). 12/28 falls on Sunday this year, but volatility on every day of the post-Christmas period is below the overall average. For December, volatility has been below average on 73% of all trading days, and the only month with more below average volatility days is July (80%). Conversely, October has the highest percentage of above average volatility days (87%).
The chart below shows the average absolute daily change for every day of the year (gray line) along with the 10-day moving average. We’re entering the final days of the year, and volatility is very low, but December 31st marks the low point of the year. From there, it will start to rise in the first few days of the new year. For much of the year, though, volatility tends to stick close to the average. The only real exceptions besides late December are mid-July, when volatility is also subdued, and then mid-March and October, when volatility starts to heat up. For now, though, it’s just cold!
Dec 24, 2025
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“One of the most glorious messes in the world is the mess created in the living room on Christmas day. Don’t clean it up too quickly.” – Andy Rooney
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Ahead of a holiday-shortened session (equities close for trading at 1 PM Eastern), US equities are in the Christmas mood this morning as futures are flashing shades of red and green. With the magnitude of the gains and losses being so small (less than 5 bps), futures on some of the indices are even alternating between red and green. Volume is very light, and while we could probably find a ‘reason’ for the modest moves up or down, besides jobless claims at 8:30, there’s nothing really going on.
The same can also be said for other areas of the financial markets, as the ten-year yield is down less than a basis point, crude oil is up fractionally, and bitcoin is down less than half of one percent. The only area of any movement this morning is in the metals space. While gold is up fractionally (but still above $4,500 per ounce), platinum, silver, and copper are all up at least 1.5%. If you own any of these metals, Merry Christmas indeed.
In Asia overnight, equity markets were mixed. The Nikkei traded down 0.1%, but China managed to trade 0.5% higher. In Europe, it’s very quiet this morning. Germany and Italy are already closed for Christmas, and the STOXX 600 is basically flat.
There’s been a lot of gains across financial markets this year, and for US stocks, equities typically also finish the year off with a positive bias. Not all stocks make the nice list, though. The table below shows the 14 stocks in the S&P 1500 that have historically traded lower from now through year-end over the last ten years, with declines at least 90% of the time.
At the top of the list, Enphase Energy (ENPH) has traded lower during this period for each of the last ten years, with a median decline of 3.7%. The remaining thirteen stocks on the list have traded down during this period in nine of the last ten years, and the worst performer of them all is bitcoin miner MARA Holdings (MARA). The stock’s median decline during this period has been 7.5%, including double-digit declines in each of the last two years. Other notable stocks on the list include Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Delta Air Lines (DAL). All fourteen of these stocks can expect some coal in their stockings tomorrow morning.
Getting coal in your stocking this year may not be the worst gift to get. Looking at the performance of the three major coal stocks this year, two are up at least 49%, while the biggest laggard – Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) is up over 10% in the last week and trading more than 22% above its 50-DMA. All three stocks are up at least 5% in the last week, suggesting that someone has been buying a lot of coal this week. Could it be Santa? Let’s hope not!
For all those who celebrate it, Merry Christmas, and for those who don’t, enjoy the day off!
Dec 23, 2025
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“I got my start by giving myself a start.” – Madam C. J. Walker
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If you thought it was time to start slowing down for the Christmas and New Year’s holiday, you may want to wait a little longer. Between a backlog of economic data and various agencies looking to get a jump on the holidays, there’s a lot of economic data on the calendar this morning. At 8:30, we’ll get the first read of Q3 GDP, Personal Consumption, GDP Price Index, Core PCE, and Durable Goods. Then at 9:15, we’ll get Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. At 10 AM Eastern, the Richmond Fed will release its monthly update on business activity in the region for December, and the Conference Board will release its monthly Consumer Confidence. Finally, at 1 PM, we’ll get the weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count, which is normally a Friday report – on a Tuesday.
Ahead of the data deluge, equity futures are little changed but with a positive bias. Treasury yields are lower, with the 10-year yield down 2 bps and just under 4.15%. For all the concerns that the latest round of rate cuts would push longer-term rates higher, it really hasn’t happened. In the commodities space, crude oil and natural gas are trading fractionally higher, while metals prices are all up by at least 1% yet again. Finally, Bitcoin, which was once the asset that just couldn’t go down, has turned into the one asset class that can’t get out of its way as it trades down by about 1% in the low $87,000 range.
In Asia overnight, major averages were little changed, and the Nikkei was up just 2 bps. Other major indices weren’t much more volatile, as South Korea was the big mover with a gain of 0.3%. In Europe, it’s a similar story as the STOXX 600 is up 0.2% as those markets are already slowing down for the Christmas holiday.
As mentioned above, metal prices are leading the gains in commodity prices this morning, which has essentially been the case all year. As shown in the snapshot from our Trend Analyzer below, anything commodity-related that doesn’t hurt when it’s dropped on your head hasn’t had much of a year in 2025. The DB Agriculture Fund is down 3.4% in the last week, taking its YTD decline to 4.3% and putting it in extreme oversold territory. Oil prices have also declined over the last week and are down over 10% on the year. Metals prices have gone parabolic, though. While gold is ‘only’ up 69%, Platinum (PPLT) and Silver (SLV) are up pretty much twice that!
Below we show one-year charts of each of the five ETFs highlighted in the snapshot above. Starting with the soft commodities, DBA and DBO are both testing 52-week lows as we close out the year, although the weakness in DBA is a bit overstated, as yesterday’s decline was due to the ETF trading ex a 91-cent return of capital dividend. In any event, it hasn’t been a good year.
While the soft commodity ETFs are testing downside support, GLD broke above potential resistance at its late October high yesterday. Platinum and Silver were at similar junctures in the last few weeks, and once they finally broke out, they were off to the races. Will Gold follow?
Dec 22, 2025
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“I think the one lesson I have learned is that there is no substitute for paying attention.” – Diane Sawyer
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The year is finally starting to wind down as the pace of economic data, earnings results, and analyst actions slows down to a trickle, if at all. This morning, traders are in a buying mood as S&P 500 futures trade 0.4% higher while the Nasdaq is up 0.65%. Bond yields are modestly higher as crude oil jumps 2% following reports that the US has seized another Venezuelan oil tanker. Even with that move, though, WTI still trades below $58 per barrel, so those sub=$3 gas prices should be safe for now.
The real action this morning, though, is coming from the metals markets. Gold and silver are trading to new highs with gains of 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively. Platinum prices are blowing those rallies out of the water, though, surging more than 5% to its highest level since 2008 and within 8% of its record high. Even crypto prices are joining in on the rally to kick off the week as Bitcoin is back above $90K.
Asian stocks had a rough go of it last week, but they’re in the holiday mood to start this week. South Korea led the way higher with a gain of 2.1%, followed by the Nikkei, which rallied 1.8%. Other major benchmarks in the region were also higher, but by less than 1%. Yields in Japan continue moving higher, but the Yen managed to rally.
In terms of holiday cheer, there isn’t much in Europe to start the week. The STOXX 600 is down fractionally, with the UK and France leading the way with losses of about 0.5%.
It’s called the most wonderful time of the year, but is it for the stock market? The chart below shows the S&P 500’s historical returns during Christmas week since 1945. For each year, we measure the S&P 500’s performance during the week when the Christmas holiday was observed. For all years since 1945, the S&P 500’s average gain was 0.53% with positive returns 66% of the time. For all one-week periods since 1945, the S&P 500’s average gain was 0.30% with gains 57% of the time, so Christmas week may not be the “most wonderful”, but it’s much better than average. The best Christmas week for the S&P 500 was in 1991, when it rallied just over 5%, while the worst Christmas week was in 2002 (-2.3%).
Looking at different scenarios applicable to this year, in the 30 years when the S&P 500 was up 15%+ YTD heading into Christmas week, the S&P 500’s average Christmas week rally was 1.08%, with gains 83% of the time. There have also been 25 years when the S&P 500 was down MTD heading into Christmas week, and in those years, the S&P 500’s performance was more muted at a gain of 72%, with gains just over two-thirds of the time. Together, there have been nine years when the S&P 500 was up 15%+ YTD and down MTD heading into Christmas week, and in those years, the average gain during the week was 0.92% with gains 78% of the time.
The chart below shows each of the nine other years that the S&P 500 was up 15%+ YTD and down MTD heading into Christmas week. The most recent occurrence was last year when the S&P 500 rallied 0.67% during Christmas week. Before that, the next most recent occurrence was way back in 1997.
