Jan 22, 2026
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“I’d say momentum is building around the world. So, ex-US has more momentum, healthy demand, lower vacancies.” – Chris Caton, Prologis
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After yesterday’s turnaround Tuesday on a Wednesday, we’re seeing a healthy amount of follow-through in futures this morning with the S&P 500 indicated to open 0.6% higher while the Nasdaq is up close to 1%. Investors continue to breathe a sigh of relief as an amicable agreement between the US and Europe over Greenland appears to have been reached. Realistically, though, there was never a chance of an armed conflict in the first place. Concerns over Greenland also showed up in the latest sentiment survey from AAII, where bullish sentiment declined sharply to 43.2% from 49.5%. The events of the last few days illustrate once again that investing based on front-page headlines is one of the worst investment strategies we can think of. If you’re going to do that, just save yourself the time and give your money away.
Asian stocks had a positive session following through on the rally in the US yesterday. The Nikkei rallied 1.7%, but no other major benchmark managed to gain more than 1%. The Kospi came close with a gain of 0.9%, and that was enough to close at another record high for the South Korean benchmark. In Australia, a stronger-than-expected unemployment report raised the odds of a rate hike next month. While economists expected the jobless rate to tick up to 4.4%, it dropped two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.1%.
European stocks are also rallying in their morning session as the STOXX 600 rallies almost 1%, and interest rates ease on what is a generally quiet session data-wise, outside of the steady stream of geo-political headlines coming out of Davos.
In terms of US data, it’s a busy morning with a slug of data at 8:30 and another round at 10. The 8:30 data was mostly better than expected with GDP coming in at 4.4% versus forecasts for 4.3%. Personal Consumption and the GDP Price Index were in line with estimates, and jobless claims were lower than expected. At 10 AM, we’ll get Personal Income and Spending and PCE.
For years now, when you hear the phrase “tale of two markets,” you’ve been conditioned to think of small caps underperforming while large caps lead. You think that, because it’s usually what has happened. So far this year, the phrase a tale of two markets has meant the opposite. As shown in the snapshot from our Trend Analyzer below, small-cap indices are leading with YTD gains of over 5%, while mega-cap and large-cap indices are either in the red or barely hanging on to gains. The S&P 100 ETF (OEF), which essentially tracks the 100 largest stocks in the S&P 500, is down over 1% YTD after falling over 2% in the last week alone!
Looking at one-year price charts of the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 shows the disparity. The Russell 2000 closed at an all-time high yesterday and remains in a solid uptrend, but the S&P 500 is trading at the same levels it was at three months ago, barely hanging on to its 50-DMA after breaking a very short-term uptrend earlier in the week.
One misnomer about the recent outperformance of small-cap stocks is that it has been solely a 2026 phenomenon. Looking at the relative strength of the S&P 500 versus the Russell 2000 since the bull market started in October 2022 shows a different picture. While large caps started a new leg of underperformance with the turn of the calendar, their relative performance peaked back in April. From that peak through mid-summer, the two indices performed in line with each other for about three months, but ever since early August, large caps have steadily underperformed. If you’re just hopping on the small-cap/broadening bandwagon, where have you been for the last five months?
Jan 21, 2026
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“A country, a style or an epoch are interesting only for the idea behind them.” – Christian Dior
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The week started on a down note, and as we approach the opening bell for the second trading day of the week, futures aren’t indicating anything in the way of a turnaround, as a previously modestly higher picture has turned red. Treasury yields are basically flat, while crude oil is modestly higher. Investors continue to pile into gold, though, as futures are up another 2%+. Unlike other days when gold rallies, though, other precious metals are seeing much more modest gains. Bitcoin is also lower once again and firmly back below $90K.
Outside of the US, Asian markets were mixed. The Nikkei was down 0.4%, but Hong Kong, China, and South Korea bucked the trend with modest gains. In Europe, the picture is much more uniform as major equity markets are down across the board. The STOXX 600 is down 0.6% with Germany leading the way lower.
For US markets this morning, we’ll get Leading Indicators, Construction Spending, and Pending Home Sales at 10 AM, but the main focus will be on Davos, where President Trump is scheduled to speak right about now.
Yesterday was an interesting day in markets as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell over 2% while long-term Treasuries, as proxied by the ETF TLT, also declined by over 1%. On their own, the weakness in both asset classes was hardly unprecedented. Since the start of 2005, there have been 212 other days when SPY fell more than 2%. For TLT, declines like yesterday are even more common, with 627 other one-day drops of at least 1%.
What made yesterday’s drops in both ETFs more notable was that they occurred in tandem with each other. Since the start of 2005, there have only been eighteen other days when SPY fell over 2%, and TLT dropped by more than 1% on the same day. The chart below shows the performance of SPY since the start of 2005, and the red dots indicate each of those other occurrences. There were multiple occurrences near the lows of the Financial Crisis in late 2008/early 2009. From mid-2009 up until the onset of Covid, there were only two other occurrences, but in the post-Covid era, the frequency of occurrences has been much more common as higher inflation has acted as a secular headwind for bonds and a tailwind for gold.
As uncommon as it is for the S&P 500 to drop at least 2% and long-term treasuries (TLT) to fall over 1% on the same day, what makes yesterday even more of an outlier is that Gold also surged more than 2%.
A 2%+ rally in Gold, on its own, isn’t all that uncommon. Yesterday was the 183rd occurrence since the start of 2005 and the 17th in just the last year, but this type of rally practically never happens on a day when the S&P 500 falls over 2% and long-term treasuries fall more than 1%. Since the start of 2005, it’s only happened five other times!
Following the President’s rhetoric towards Europe, and Greenland specifically, over the weekend, concerns over a pickup in the sell America trade started to resurface again yesterday, and the moves in US stocks, bonds, and gold yesterday could easily fit into that narrative. If global investors were looking to “sell America,” this is exactly the type of price action you would expect to see. But if investors were selling America, what were they buying?
Accounting for the losses on Monday when US markets were closed, there wasn’t a lot of buying in global stocks. Europe’s STOXX 600 was down about 2% from Friday’s close through Tuesday, and the Nikkei was down just as much. There wasn’t a lot of buying to be found in international bonds either, as yields in Europe also moved higher, and JGB yields surged to multi-decade highs.
For now, it probably makes more sense to write off yesterday’s moves as a one-off and potentially traders just trying to front-run any potential sell-America trade, but investors should keep a close eye on how the markets react in the days ahead. What makes yesterday’s drops in stocks and bonds while gold rallied stand out even more though, was in where it occurred in the market cycle. As shown in the chart below, of the five other times when SPY fell over 2%, TLT fell more than 1%, and GLD rallied at least 2%, three occurred deep into the Financial Crisis, and the other two occurred right near the lows of the tariff-tantrum. Yesterday’s occurrence came just after the S&P 500 closed the prior session within 1% of an all-time high.
Jan 20, 2026
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“Remember, your mind is like a parachute: If it isn’t open, it doesn’t work. So keep an open mind!” – Buzz Aldrin
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If this is the price we pay for a three-day weekend, maybe we should have kept the market open. It’s looking like a terrible Tuesday for US equities as the S&P 500 is poised to open down 1.4% while the Nasdaq is indicated 1.7% lower. Over the weekend, President Trump escalated his rhetoric towards Greenland and threatened tariffs on European allies if a deal isn’t reached. Today also marks the first anniversary of Trump’s second inauguration, and it’s been eventful to say the least.
Equity indices in Asia were weak, given the declines in US equity futures and the global trade tensions. The Nikkei was down over 1%, but India was the only other country down more than 1%. South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.4%. Yes, you read that correctly- South Korean stocks had a daily decline for the first time in 2026. The more concerning aspect of the weakness in Asia, though, is in the bond markets where JGB yields are surging to multi-decade highs in their biggest one-day moves since the Liberation Day turmoil last April.
European stocks are much weaker this morning, and in early trading, the STOXX 600 is down 1.3%. Spain is leading the declines with a drop of 1.7%, followed by Germany (-1.6%), and Italy (-1.5%). The weakness this morning stems from President Trump’s announcement over the weekend that he would put tariffs of 10% on the imports of eight European countries beginning on 2/1, which will increase to 25% on 6/1, if no deal is reached on Greenland. Making matters worse are reports that the President will put 200% tariffs on imports of French wine if French President Macron refuses to join the Gaza Board of Peace.
Whenever we see large declines like the market is poised for this morning, it always helps to put the move in perspective. The chart below shows SPY’s performance during the current bull market, and the red dots indicate every other time that SPY gapped down at least 1%. While today’s occurrence is only the third in the last eight months, since October 2022, there have been 37 other occurrences, which works out to an average of once per month.
Today’s gap down in SPY comes as the market has been stuck in a holding pattern for the last several weeks. Based on pre-market trading, SPY is trading right now at the same levels it traded in back in late October.
Jan 16, 2026
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“My advisers built a wall between myself and my people. I didn’t realize what was happening. When I woke up, I had lost my people.” – Mohammed Reza Pahlavi
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures are bucking a general trend of weakness in international markets and are poised to open modestly higher. S&P 500 futures are indicated to open 0.15% higher, while the Nasdaq is looking at a gain of over 0.4%. Tech is leading the way higher as chip and memory stocks rally, while we’re seeing mixed reactions to earnings from regional banks. Treasuries are selling off as the 10-year yield pushes up near 4.2%, and crude oil is trading up over 1% to just under $60 per barrel. Metals are seeing weakness as gold is down nearly 1% while silver and platinum are down over 4%. Lastly, Bitcoin is up fractionally and above $95K, and Ether pushes up above $3,300.
Asian stocks ended the week on a mixed note but finished the week generally higher. The Nikkei fell 0.3% but finished the week up nearly 4%, while the Hang Seng was down by the same amount and finished the week 2.3% higher. China was the only outlier as the Shanghai Composite also traded down 0.3%, taking its YTD decline to 0.5%. South Korea traded 0.9% higher to close out the week (what else is new) and finished the week 5.6% higher.
Europe appears poised to close out the week on a sluggish note. The STOXX 600 is down 0.2% but still on pace for a weekly gain. France is the biggest laggard this morning as the CAC 40 drops nearly 1%, setting the stage for a weekly decline of 1.4%. The DAX is down close to 0.5% and teetering around the unchanged level for the week. December CPI in Germany was unchanged, which took the year/year rate down to 1.8%.
Getting back to the performance of South Korea, 2025 was already a strong year for the country, but it hasn’t skipped a beat so far in 2026. The chart below shows the performance of the MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), and even after accounting for changes in the currency, it’s been a series of record highs all year.
In local currency terms, the KOSPI traded higher on all eleven trading days this year. That’s an impressive streak, but it had another streak of the same length back in September. Before that, though, you have to go back to 2019 to find a streak lasting as long or longer. In fact, that 13-day streak in September 2019 was tied with a streak in April 2019 and February 1984 for the longest on record.
Over its current eleven-day winning streak, the KOSPI has rallied 14.9%, which ranks as the best start to a year for the index over 11 trading days since 2001 (19.6%). Since 1981, there have been four other years when the KOSPI rallied more than 10% in the first eleven trading days of the year. When you think about it, it’s interesting to see how a parallel to this period for the KOSPI traces back to the period starting in 1998, which is also just where we would be based on the comparison between the Nasdaq following the launch of Chat GPT versus its performance following the launch of Netscape in the early to mid-1990s.
Jan 15, 2026
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“Nothing makes a man so adventurous as an empty pocket.” – ― Victor Hugo, The Hunchback of Notre Dame
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures are higher this morning, with the S&P 500 indicated to open 0.4% higher while the Nasdaq, driven by strong earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), looks to open up nearly 1%. After weak reactions to earnings from the major banks over the last two days, Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) reported better-than-expected results but are experiencing muted to modestly negative reactions in their stocks.
Treasury yields are little changed, but at 4.14%, the 10-year yield is very well behaved. After surging above $62 per barrel yesterday as a strike on Iran seemed like a certainty, WTI is down over 4% and back below $60 this morning. Gold and other precious metals are also pulling back, but by much more modest amounts.
In Europe this morning, the STOXX 600 is up 0.5% as shares of ASML rallied more than 5% and saw their market cap exceed half a trillion dollars. Asian stocks were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei falling 0.4% (it can’t go up every day) while China was down a more modest 0.3%. South Korea, however, bucked the trend and rallied 1.6% (apparently, it can seemingly rally every day).
We just got a flurry of economic data, and the results were all stronger than expected. Both the Philly Fed and Empire Manufacturing reports topped expectations, and jobless claims were lower than expected on both an initial and continuing basis. Initial claims were even below 200K. The only fly in the ointment was Import Prices, which rose 0.1% m/m versus forecasts for a decline of 0.2%. In reaction the reports, yields ticked a little higher, and equity futures improved modestly.
While large brokerage/investment banking-centric firms like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are seeing modest reactions to earnings, the same can’t be said for the largest money center banks, which reported this week. Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all traded down at least 3% on their reaction days this week. For most, it was their worst earnings reaction day performance in over a year, and for BAC, it was the worst since October 2020!
The weakness in the stocks has been a disappointment and a drag on the market this week, but keep in mind that these stocks were trading at record highs last week. They’ve also had to contend with the President’s call for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates. After the initial weakness yesterday, the Financial sector found some support at its 50-day moving average and ended up finishing the day right near the prior highs from last Fall. Provided the weakness eases from here, it’s nothing more than some consolidation.
The major banks are the first companies to report earnings every quarter, so their results and how their stocks react tend to get a lot of investor focus. Therefore, with all four reacting negatively to earnings, it raises the question of whether it’s a flock of canaries warning of bigger problems ahead.
The chart below shows the performance of the SPDR Financial Sector ETF (XLF) since 2000, and the blue dots indicate every time that all four money center banks declined on their earnings reaction days in the same earnings season, while the red dots indicate each time all four stocks declined at least 1%. There have been 14 other times that all four stocks declined on their earnings reaction day in the same earnings season, but there have only been three earnings seasons when all three declined 1%. Of those three, the only time all four stocks declined more than 3% was in April 2020 when the economy was shutdown from Covid! So, it’s uncommon to see all four stocks simultaneously react so poorly to earnings.
Jan 14, 2026
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“While any number of risks continue, we are bullish on the U.S. economy in 2026.” -Brian Moynihan
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Bespoke’s Paul Hickey appeared on Making Money with Charles Payne yesterday to discuss the markets in the post-Covid world and what to expect in 2026. To view the segment, click on the image below.
After a modestly negative Tuesday, futures are trading on the back foot once again this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 0.36% while the Nasdaq is even weaker, indicated to open down by 0.5%. Oil prices are higher as traders eye the simmering tensions in Iran and anticipate a possible disruption to supplies from the country. That’s also translated to a flight to safety trade in gold and other precious metals. Gold is up 1%, silver is up over 5%, while platinum is up 3%. A few weeks ago, a lot of traders thought these moves were getting long in the tooth, but those teeth now look like fangs. Even crypto assets have caught a bid in recent days as Bitcoin is back above $95K and Ether is up near 3,300.
After yesterday’s tame CPI, we just got PPI along with Retail Sales. PPI was a strange report as the m/m numbers were either inline with or weaker than expected, but the y/y readings came in much higher than expected at 3% compared to forecasts for 2.7%. These are hotter than expected inflation readings, but PPI is a volatile report. Retail Sales, also released at 8:30, were better than expected. The only other report on the calendar is Existing Home Sales at 10 AM, and given the lower mortgage rates recently, we could see some strength in that report.
The pace of earnings is also starting to pick up as Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all reported results this morning. All three companies exceeded bottom-line forecasts, while WFC was the only one to report weaker sales. As a result of its revenue miss, WFC is trading down about 2% while the other two stocks are hugging the flat line.
In Asia overnight, it was a mixed session. Japan extended its streak of 1%+ daily moves to seven with a gain of 1.5%. China was down modestly (-0.3%), while South Korea was up 0.7%. In Europe, there’s been little movement so far this morning. The STOXX 600 is basically unchanged as most major benchmarks in the region are marginally higher, but modest weakness in Germany weighs.
Yesterday’s 4%+ decline in shares of JPM ranked as the eighth most negative reaction to earnings for the stock since at least 2001 and the weakest since April 2024. The stock’s negative reaction to earnings raised some concerns surrounding the stock as well as the broader market, but as we noted in yesterday’s COTD, JPM’s reaction to earnings isn’t exactly a great bellwether for broad market. They’re not even a great bellwether for the stock’s future performance.
The chart below shows the stock’s performance since the start of 2020, and the red and green dots represent each of the company’s earnings reports since then. Red dots indicate days when the stock had a negative one-day reaction to earnings, while green dots indicate positive reactions. Yesterday was the third straight quarter that JPM had a negative reaction to earnings, but as the chart illustrates, the prior two weak reactions weren’t an especially ominous signal as the stock hit new all-time highs following each of them. JPM had a similar streak in 2024, and once again, between each of them, the stock hit all-time highs. From late 2020 through mid-2022, there was another extended streak of eight straight negative reactions, and while the stock held up well early on in that streak, towards the later stretch of that streak, the stock finally rolled over. All in all, though, a weak one-day reaction has tended to be a weak one-day reaction and nothing more.
Moving on from JPM to Japan, last night’s rally in the Nikkei extended an impressive run to start the year. After just seven days of trading, the Nikkei is up 7.95%, which ranks as the best start to a year for that index since at least 1971. Before this year, the record was in 1994 when it rallied 7.9% in the first seven trading days. Besides 1994, the only other years that the Nikkei rallied more than 5% in the first seven trading days of the year were 1971, 1976, and, most recently, in 2024.
