Aug 11, 2023
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“If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you ever have time to do it over?” – John Wooden
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US equity futures are down slightly this Friday morning as we await July PPI following yesterday’s inline CPI report. The market’s intraday action has been heavy so far this month with sellers stepping in every time prices tick higher. For now, though, the S&P’s 50-day hasn’t even been tested yet, so it could be worse!
At this point, most sectors have 10-day advance/decline lines that are either oversold or just near oversold territory, meaning overbought levels from July have been fully worked off in the near term and we’re actually at a point where we could start seeing upside mean reversion again from a breadth perspective.
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Aug 10, 2023
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“Everything looks nicer when you win.” – Billy Martin
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US equity index futures are pointing to a higher open as of 8:10 AM ET as the world awaits US CPI for July due out at 8:30. Weekly Jobless Claims are also due out at the same time. As highlighted yesterday, YoY CPI is set to end a streak of twelve monthly declines in a row.
Yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time in 103 trading days. Going back to 1985 when this index began, there have only been ten other streaks of 100+ trading days of closes above the 50-DMA, with the last occurring in mid-2020.
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Aug 9, 2023
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“Goodness is the only investment that never fails.” – Henry David Thoreau
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US equity markets finished in the red yesterday, but the story of the session was the intraday rally seen from lows made around 11 AM ET right through the close. 90 minutes into the trading day, the S&P was down well over 1%, but the index rallied about 75 basis points over the final five hours of the day to close down just over 40 bps.
Heading into today’s session, futures are higher by about 20 bps. That should be enough to get the S&P above the top of the intraday downtrend channel that has formed over the last week, but whether it holds is a different story. We’ll find out in a few hours!
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Aug 8, 2023
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“The finest steel has to go through the hottest fire.” – President Richard Nixon (who announced his resignation on this day in 1974)
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US equity futures are down quite a bit (-85 bps) this morning on weakness in China and Europe, and the S&P 500 (SPY) is currently set to give up all of yesterday’s gains when it opens for trading.
The dollar is rallying while Treasury yields and oil prices are falling, and the only economic indicator of note today was the monthly release of small business sentiment from NFIB. Sentiment came in slightly higher than expected, but it’s still very low relative to history.
As shown below, after reporting earnings over the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) traded to a new all-time high yesterday.
Berkshire (BRK/B) is now the 7th largest stock in the S&P 500 with a market cap of $794 billion yesterday afternoon. $794 billion! As shown below, the 7th largest stock in the S&P ten years ago was Walmart (WMT) with a market cap of just $254 billion, and Apple in the top spot had a market cap of just $422 billion. Fast forward ten years and we now have five stocks with $1+ trillion market caps and two with $2+ trillion market caps.
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Aug 7, 2023
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“The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears it is true.” – J. Robert Oppenheimer
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After selling off more than 1% in afternoon trading into the close on Friday, US index ETFs are trading slightly higher pre-market with SPY up 20 bps and QQQ up 30 bps. There is little news to speak of other than a stronger than expected earnings report from Berkshire Hathaway over the weekend that has BRK/B trading up about 1.3% in pre-market trading.
As shown below, only three of the major US index ETFs tracked in our Trend Analyzer tool remain in overbought territory, while the rest are now neutral. The three that are still just slightly overbought are two small-cap ETFs (IJR, IWM) and the Dow 30 (DIA). Over the last five trading days, both the S&P (SPY, IVV) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are down roughly 1.25% — not a big sell-off, but enough to cool things off a bit.
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Aug 4, 2023
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“We all go Do, Re, Mi, but you’ve gotta find all the other notes yourself.” – Louis Armstrong
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Futures are mixed heading into the July jobs report, as positive earnings from Amazon.com (AMZN) and a lackluster reaction to Apple (AAPL) earnings offset each other. None of this will matter once the jobs report hits the tape, though, and after what has already been a tentative start to August, the market is hoping for a soft number.
Employment report Fridays are known for being important market days with heightened volatility. While the recent focus on inflation has relegated the monthly jobs to more of a backseat role, it’s still an important report. The chart below shows the rolling 12-month average of the S&P 500’s average daily percentage move (up or down) on Non-Farm Payroll report days going back to 2000. Exactly a year ago, the 12-month average was near a historical extreme on the low side as the S&P 500’s average daily move on employment report days had slid below 0.5%, but since then, we’ve seen a steady move higher. Back in June, the average daily move peaked at a post-COVID high of 1.3%, and while that seems high, there were other periods (early 2000s, during the Financial Crisis, and in early 2019) when the average daily move was even higher. As much as investors would like a nice quiet Friday heading into the weekend, history suggests otherwise.
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