Feb 19, 2026
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with some commentary regarding the latest pivots in Fedspeak in addition to the latest earnings reports (page 1). Next up, we show this year’s disconnect between price and breadth (page 2) before switching into an overview of the latest happenings in repo markets (page 3). We then round out tonight’s report with reviews of trade data (page 4) and regional manufacturing and jobless claims figures (page 5).
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Feb 19, 2026
During the just-completed Q4 2025 earnings reporting period, there were a total of 98 earnings triple plays out of just over 1,100 individual quarterly earnings reports from US-listed stocks. That’s 110 fewer than the 208 triple plays we saw during the prior earnings reporting period.
What is a triple play? When a stock reports quarterly earnings, it registers a “triple play” when it beats analyst EPS estimates, beats analyst revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance. We coined the term back in the mid-2000s, and you can read more about it at Investopedia.com. We consider triple plays to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we’re constantly finding new long-term opportunities from this basket of names each quarter. You can track the newest earnings triple plays on a daily basis at our Triple Plays page if you’re a Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional member.
To read our quarterly triple play recap and see some of the triple plays with intriguing price charts at the moment, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium!
Feb 19, 2026
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Leidos’ (LDOS) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Leidos (LDOS) is a national security, defense technology, and health services company serving the US Department of War, the intelligence community, the Veterans Administration, the FAA, and allied governments. It operates across integrated air defense systems, cyber, space payloads, unmanned maritime vehicles, IT modernization, energy infrastructure engineering, and managed health services. LDOS delivered a strong 2025 despite a six-week government shutdown, growing adjusted EBITDA margins 120 basis points to 14.1% and non-GAAP EPS by 17%. The company posted back-to-back quarters of 1.3x book-to-bill, with $7 billion in awards slipping from Q4 into 2026 and $20 billion in pending awards. Management is tripling CapEx to $350 million to scale production on IFPC (Indirect Fire Protection Capability) missile defense, hypersonics, and maritime autonomy programs, while negotiating co-investment frameworks with the Department of War. The $2.4 billion ENTRUST acquisition positions Leidos as a leading US energy engineering firm. Guidance calls for up to 4% revenue growth in 2026, accelerating toward double digits by year-end, with Golden Dome funding and FAA modernization flagged as upside catalysts not yet incorporated into guidance. LDOS reported better-than-expected EPS on weaker revenue, as the stock fell 8% on 2/17…
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Feb 19, 2026
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Toll Brothers’ (TOL) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Toll Brothers (TOL) is the largest luxury homebuilder in the United States, serving affluent move-up, move-down, and first-time buyers at an average delivered price of roughly $977,000. The company offers a unique build-to-order model with Design Studios where buyers customize finishes, generating approximately $212,000 in upgrades per home. TOL beat guidance across nearly all metrics in its Q1, delivering $1.85 billion in revenue and growing EPS 25% year-over-year to $2.19. Management struck a tone of cautious optimism: web traffic, foot traffic, and deposits are all up modestly versus last year heading into spring, though it is early. Incentives held flat at 8% of sales price for the third straight quarter, and build costs remain stable with no tariff impact materializing. Regionally, the Boston-to-South Carolina corridor and California are outperforming, while Tampa, Atlanta, San Antonio, and the Pacific Northwest lag. Notably, visa uncertainty is creating a modest pause among immigrant homebuyers nationally. The company is targeting 8-10% community count growth backed by 75,000 controlled lots. TOL was up as much as 2% on 2/18 after beating estimates, but slid intraday to roughly 2.5% in the red…
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Feb 19, 2026
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Wingstop’s (WING) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Wingstop (WING) is a highly franchised, asset-light restaurant chain specializing in cooked-to-order chicken wings and tenders with over a dozen bold flavors. With over 3,000 locations globally and average unit volumes of $2 million on an upfront investment of roughly $580,000, the company offers some of the strongest unit economics in the restaurant industry. Wingstop posted its first negative same-store sales in 22 years, down 3% for 2025 and 5.8% in Q4, as macro pressures weighed on lower-income consumers, particularly at lunch and snack dayparts. Despite this, the company opened a record 493 restaurants globally, grew system-wide sales 12% to over $5 billion, and increased adjusted EBITDA 15%. The AI-enabled Smart Kitchen platform is now installed across all domestic restaurants, with roughly 50% consistently hitting 10-minute ticket times, and a 10 percentage point improvement already in early 2026. A loyalty pilot showed 50% enrollment among active guests and a 7% frequency lift. Management guided 2026 comps at flat to low-single-digit growth and 15-16% unit growth. WING reported better-than-expected revenue on weaker EPS as shares climbed 10.8% on 2/18…
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Feb 19, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“To know that we know what we know, and to know that we do not know what we do not know, that is true knowledge.” – Nicolaus Copernicus
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It looks like a sluggish start to the trading day with S&P 500 futures down about 0.25% while the Nasdaq is down closer to 0.40%. Walmart (WMT) reported earnings earlier, and the stock is down over 2.5% after giving disappointing guidance. WMT’s reaction to earnings encapsulates the entire earnings season, where stock price reactions and the overall market performance have been modestly disappointing.
Treasury yields are higher again this morning as the 10-year yield moves above 4.10% just two days after it looked like we’d be trading with a 3-handle. Crude oil prices are rising again, with WTI up over $66 as investors watch the Middle East, where a US military strike against Iran looks increasingly likely. Gold prices are basically flat, while crypto is down modestly.
In Asia, China remained closed for the Lunar New Year, but South Korean stocks surged over 3% while the Nikkei rallied 0.6% after Core Machinery Orders rose more than 19% versus forecasts for an increase of 5.1%. Europe is following the US tone rather than Asia this morning, and the STOXX 600 is down 0.6%, led lower by Italy’s decline of 1.3%.
On the economic calendar, it’s been a busy morning, with the main reports being the Philly Fed Manufacturing report, which came in better than expected (+16.3 vs +7.5), and jobless claims. Initial claims were lower than expected at 206K versus forecasts for 225K, while continuing claims were slightly higher than expected at 1.869 mln versus forecasts for 1.860 million. For the rest of the day, the only remaining reports of note are Leading Indicators and Pending Home Sales at 10 AM
With Walmart’s report this morning, Q4 earnings season is now winding down to an unofficial close. We measure earnings season performance as the five weeks starting with the Friday before the large banks start to report, which for the current earnings season works out to the period from the close on 1/9 through 2/20. As of yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 1.2%, and with futures down this morning, it would take a decent reversal and a rally tomorrow to push the S&P 500 into the green for this earnings season.
A negative earnings season would break a streak of five straight earnings seasons during which the S&P 500 had positive returns during earnings season. Even more notable is that the last time the market declined more than 1% during an earnings season was 15 quarters ago (nearly four years) during the Q1 2022 reporting period, when the S&P 500 fell more than 13%.
At the stock level, yesterday’s big story was news that Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS), which owns the New York Knicks and New York Rangers, was considering a plan to separate the two franchises into two standalone companies. The stock rallied more than 15% in response, and deservedly so, as even after yesterday’s rally, MSGS has a market cap of less than $9 billion, and the combined value of both teams is estimated at well over $10 billion.
MSGS has been a solid performer over the last year as many investors started to anticipate this type of announcement from the company, and even before yesterday’s news, the stock was up over 42% in the last year. After yesterday’s surge, MSGS is up over 65%.
Owning sports franchises has become a popular investment strategy in recent years as their value has skyrocketed in the last couple of decades. Private equity funds have been rushing into the space, but as is usually the case for emerging investment trends, access for individual investors is tough. In the public equity space, there’s only a handful of stocks that primarily track the performance of individual sports teams or leagues.
The chart below shows the performance over the last year of five publicly traded stocks that provide exposure to individual sports franchises or an entire league. While it’s been a popular investment strategy among the limited options available to individual investors, performance over the last year has been mixed.
Even before yesterday’s surge, shares of MSGS were the top performer, and they only added to the gains yesterday. Trailing MSGS, TKO Group (TKO), which owns the UFC and WWE, was up 24%, which also handily outperformed the S&P 500. Next on the list was Manchester United (MANU), and its 16.2% only modestly outperformed the S&P 500. While three of the five stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 over the last year, shares of Liberty – Atlanta Braves (BATRA) are up just 9.1%, while shares of Liberty Formula One (FWONA) have “crashed and burned” 10.2%. While Formula One is billed as one of the fastest-growing sports these days, its stock price has gone the other way.
