The Closer – Managed Care Pain, Dollar Drop, Homes – 1/27/26

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a recap of some of the latest earnings and the pain in managed care stocks (page 1). We then review the new low and bad day for the dollar (page 2) including a look at performance when it hits a 52-week long alongside a 52-week high in US equities (page 3).  We then round out tonight’s note with an update on Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, and regional Fed manufacturing gauges (page 4).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Polaris (PII)

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Polaris’ (PII) Q4 2025 earnings call.

Polaris (PII) is a North American powersports manufacturer, producing off-road vehicles (ORVs like side-by-sides and ATVs under brands including RZR, Ranger, and XPEDITION), snowmobiles, motorcycles, three-wheelers (Slingshot), and marine products (pontoon boats under Bennington, Godfrey, and Hurricane). With approximately 2,000 dealers across North America, Polaris serves both recreational consumers and commercial customers in agriculture, ranching, and construction. PII had an exceptionally challenging 2025, facing $215 million in tariff headwinds, its largest obstacle since the pandemic, yet still gained market share across all segments. The company reduced China-sourced materials from 18% to 14% of COGS, targeting below 5% by 2027. However, consumer demand remains bifurcated. Utility segments show strength driven by commercial buyers benefiting from tax incentives, while recreational purchases stall due to elevated interest rates and macro uncertainty. The pending Indian Motorcycle separation, closing Q1 2026, will add $0.75-$0.80 to EPS. For 2026, Polaris guides to 1-3% sales growth (7-9% organic ex-Indian) despite $90 million in incremental tariffs. PII beat EPS and revenue estimates, though cut guidance and shares fell as much as 8.6% on 1/27…

Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for PII by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan

Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan

Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: NextEra Energy (NEE)

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers NextEra Energy’s (NEE) Q4 2025 earnings call.

NextEra Energy (NEE) is America’s largest electric utility company by market cap, operating Florida Power & Light (FPL), which serves over 12 million people across Florida, and NextEra Energy Resources, the world’s largest generator of renewable energy from wind and solar. The company has built more renewables, battery storage, and gas-fired generation than any competitor over the past two decades. NextEra provides insight into the intersection of data center power demand, grid modernization, and the economics of serving hyperscale loads while maintaining residential affordability. NextEra delivered $3.71 adjusted EPS (up 8% YoY) and guided to 8%+ annual growth through 2035. The call centered on explosive AI-driven power demand. Management disclosed 20 GW of data center interest in Florida (9 GW in advanced discussions) and a 30 GW nationwide backlog. The company is pioneering a “bring your own generation” (BYOG) model where hyperscalers fund infrastructure buildout, addressing the affordability crisis spotlighted by the White House’s January PJM framework. NextEra secured solar/battery supply through 2029 and 4 GW of gas turbine capacity with GE Vernova, while pursuing nuclear restarts and 1.7 GW of recontracting opportunities. Florida’s new 4-year rate agreement enables $90-100B in infrastructure investment while keeping bills 30% below the national average. Despite missing revenue estimates, NEE beat on EPS and the stock was up as much as 3.7% on 1/27…

Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for NEE by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan

Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/27/26 – Sick Health Care Stocks

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“We’re all mad here.” – Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Stocks are poised to build on yesterday’s rally with S&P 500 futures up 0.25% while the Nasdaq gains 0.60%. Treasury yields are slightly higher as the 10-year yield sits just under 4.23% while the dollar is weaker. Crude oil is little changed at $60 per barrel, while natural gas is giving back some of the massive gains of last week with a drop of over 6%. Precious metals are also lower after their surges to start the week, and Bitcoin is slightly higher.

On the data front, we’ll get Case Shiller numbers at 9 AM, and then the Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence at 10 AM.  After those reports, all eyes will shift to tomorrow’s FOMC announcement, although there’s already widespread agreement that rates will be left unchanged, and the upcoming mega cap earnings.

Following last night’s announcement that the U.S. government proposed a much lower-than-expected payment increase of just 0.09% for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027, coupled with a tepid revenue outlook for the year ahead, shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and many of its peer stocks are down sharply in pre-market trading. For just UNH alone, its impact on the Dow Jones Industrials will be a decline of 350 points, so without that, the Dow would be higher.

Looking at a one-year chart of UNH shows that, based on where the stock is trading in the pre-market, it is on track to test support at the low end of its current six-month range, and a break of that level would put the lows from the summer back into play.

Going back to 1990, today’s downside gap will be the 12th time that UNH has gapped down more than 10%, and the frequency of those downside moves has really increased in pace over the last year. From late 2008 through the end of 2024, there was only one occurrence (during Covid on 3/16/20), but today’s decline will be the fifth in the last year alone!

The scatter chart below compares UNH’s daily opening gaps with its intraday performance from the open to close. The shaded area highlights each time the stock gapped down more than 10%, and following most of those opening declines, dip buyers weren’t quick to step in during the trading day, and in many cases, the stock added significantly to those opening declines.

Trivia Time. We wanted to close today with a little bit of trivia, and this one comes partially from Yahoo! Sports. If Drake Maye wins the Super Bowl this year, the University of North Carolina would be just the sixth school to produce a U.S. president and a Super Bowl-winning QB. What were the other five?

And as a bonus question, 36 different head coaches have won a Super Bowl title. What college/university has produced the most winning head coaches? Check back tomorrow for an answer, or feel free to respond with your guess. No cheating!

Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Intel (INTC)

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Intel’s (INTC) Q4 2025 earnings call.

Intel (INTC) is a semiconductor leader transitioning into a dual-threat design and foundry company. It produces essential microprocessors for PCs and data centers, alongside custom ASICs and advanced packaging solutions. Intel is the only firm developing and manufacturing leading-edge nodes on US soil, serving massive tech ecosystems and government defense programs. INTC beat earnings expectations, but is struggling to meet a massive surge in AI-driven demand. Management is pivoting capacity away from low-end PCs to prioritize high-margin Xeon server chips, causing a supply trough in early 2026. Despite $13.7 billion in revenue, depleted inventory buffers mean the company is currently “hand-to-mouth” on wafer supply. Investors are focused on the successful ramp of the 18A process and the 14A roadmap, which has already garnered industry-standard PDK status. Other highlights included a $5 billion investment from NVIDIA and a custom ASIC business that hit a $1 billion annual run rate, signaling Intel’s growing role in the specialized AI hardware market. The stock got decimated on 1/23, down 17% on the day…

Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for INTC by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan

Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan

The Closer – Technicals, 5 Fed, Positioning – 1/26/26

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a look at the S&P 500’s technical outlook in addition to some commentary regarding Medicare and private credit (page 1).  We then pivot into the latest earnings (page 2) followed by an update of our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 3).  We also review durable goods data (page 4) before closing out with a rundown of the latest moves in positioning data (pages 5 and 6).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!