Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/5/26 – Yields Hit Home

May 5, 2026

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“If you don’t use your experience, your past is wasted” – Alan Shepard

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Yields are behaving themselves this morning as the 10-year US Treasury yield is unchanged at around 4.44%, and near the highest levels since last summer.

While rising yields haven’t had much of an impact on the overall equity market yet, the same can’t be said for homebuilders. In early February, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was near 52-week highs and above $115. Yesterday, it closed at $91.28, or more than 20% below those levels from two months ago. While the S&P 500 is up over 13% from its March lows, ITB has only rallied 3%.

Rising yields have been more painful for housing-related stocks. Home Depot (HD) is a perfect example. Yesterday, the world’s largest home improvement retailer closed at a 52-week low of $312.42. The stock is down over 20% from its February high and over 26% from its 52-week high.

Looking more broadly at housing-related stocks. The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows the 20 largest components in the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), and the majority are not only underperforming the S&P 500 on a YTD basis, but they’re also down. The last week has been especially painful for the group, as all but six of them are down just as yields have started to spike.

There are some bright spots in terms of performance this year. Stocks like Modine Manufacturing (MOD), Trane Technologies (TT), Carrier Global (CARR), and Johnson Controls (JCI) are all up over 20% YTD, and they’re the only overbought stocks on the list. The rally in these four stocks really has nothing to do with housing, though. They’re all rallying due to the massive demand for cooling in AI data centers.

Turning to the markets this morning, futures are higher with the S&P 500 indicated to open up 0.4% and the Nasdaq rallies 0.6%. As mentioned above, yields have been behaved with the 10-year right around yesterday’s close of 4.44%. Oil prices are giving back some of yesterday’s gains, falling over 2% to just under $104 per barrel in WTI. Lastly, gold prices are up about 1%, while Bitcoin is up over 1% and back above $81K.

In Asia overnight, Japan, China, and South Korea were closed, while Hong Kong dropped 0.8%. In Europe, markets are all open and generally higher. The STOXX 600 is up 0.5%, led higher by Spain (1.35%) and Germany (1.0%). The UK is the main laggard, falling 1.3%.

In the US today, we’ll get service sector PMIs from S&P and ISM, along with New Home Sales and JOLTS.

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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/4/26 – Moody Market

May 4, 2026

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Nothing is impossible, the word itself says ‘I’m possible’!” – Audrey Hepburn

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

16-year-old, meet market. If you think the life of a 16-year-old is an emotional roller-coaster where ‘life isn’t fair’ turns into ‘top of the world’ on a dime, the market has been doing a stellar impression lately. From the end of February right through all of March, the S&P 500 declined for five straight weeks. Once March ended, though, the pendulum swung completely in the opposite direction with five straight weeks of gains. There hasn’t been any in between.

It has been very uncommon for the S&P 500 to experience at least five weekly declines followed by at least five weekly gains. Since WWII, there have been 32 other losing streaks of at least five weeks, and there have been 120 streaks of at least five-week gains. However, there have only been five other periods when a five-week winning streak came immediately after a streak of at least five weeks of losses. The last one was way back in 1982, so the teenagers out there (and maybe even their parents) won’t remember that one.

Last week also saw a notable shift in a pattern that has been prevalent ever since the war started. For the last nine weeks, it seemed as though whatever was good for oil prices and the energy sector was bad for all other stocks and vice versa. Last week, though, Energy was the top-performing sector, gaining 3.48%, but the only other stocks to finish the week lower were Materials (-1.10%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.05%). In fact, four other sectors rallied more than 1%, including Technology (1.03%) and Communication Services (1.02%). The market won’t be able to ignore rising energy prices in perpetuity, but it is a welcome respite.

It’s been a volatile morning for equity futures as conflicting headlines from the Middle East caused a sharp pullback in futures earlier this morning. Reports that Iran fired on a US ship erased earlier gains in equities and a sharp increase in oil prices. US officials have refuted the reports, though, and we’ve reclaimed a decent amount of the earlier losses, and the S&P 500 is now just down 0.2% while the Nasdaq is flat.

In Asia, Japan and China were closed for a holiday, but South Korea surged over 5% while Hong Kong rallied 1.2%. Manufacturing PMIs for both South Korea and Singapore both expanded more than expected.

European stocks returned from last Friday’s holiday with losses. The STOXX 600 is down over 0.5%, led lower by Spain, which is down over 1% while France and Italy are both underperforming. Like Asia, Manufacturing PMIs for countries in the region have generally been stronger than expected.

Looking ahead to the US today, the only economic report on the calendar is Factory Orders at 10 AM. NY Fed President Williams will be speaking at the Yale Club just before 1 PM, and after the bell, Palantir (PLTR) will report Q1 earnings.

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