Jun 24, 2016
The UK has voted to leave the EU and financial markets around the world have taken a massive hit. At present, the S&P 500 (SPY ETF) is set to gap down 3.8% on the open.
In a B.I.G. Tips report just sent to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members, we detail the historical reaction to huge gaps down at the open, showing the gap down, open-close move, entire day move, and returns over the last week for every >3% gap down on SPY over the last 20 years. Read the full report to see the clear historical pattern that large gap downs typically lead to.
See the full B.I.G. Tips report by signing up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now. Click this link for a 10% discount ($89/month).
Jun 15, 2016
As the 6/23 referendum on Britain’s membership in the European Union gets ever so closer, not only have investors in the UK and Europe become increasingly skittish, but so too have investors all over the world. Over the last four trading days through Tuesday, we have basically seen a global flush of stocks.
In a B.I.G. Tips report just sent to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members, we went into detail on just how weak the last four days have been on a global basis relative to other periods over the last ten years. Forward equity market returns following events of similar magnitude in the past have been extreme. Have they been extreme to the upside or the downside? Read the report to find out!
See the full B.I.G. Tips report by signing up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now. Click this link for a 10% discount ($89/month).
Jun 14, 2016
Tomorrow is yet another Fed Day — the fourth of 2016. Below we show the S&P 500’s average one-day change on Fed Days on a rolling 10 Fed-Day basis. As shown, over the last 10 Fed Days, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.38%.
In a B.I.G. Tips report just sent to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members, we take a detailed look at the market’s historical performance on Fed Days.
See the full B.I.G. Tips report by signing up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now. Click this link for a 10% discount ($89/month).
Jun 14, 2016
Retail sales for the month of May were released earlier this morning and at the headline level came in higher than expected for the second straight month, rising by 0.5% vs. consensus expectations for growth of 0.3%. Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the report was not as strong as the headline, but still managed to match expectations. On a two-month basis, now, retail sales have risen by 1.73%, which is the strongest two-month growth rate since April 2014.
In a B.I.G. Tips report just sent to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members, we went into detail on this month’s report highlighting which areas of the sector were showing strength and which were weak.
See the full B.I.G. Tips report by signing up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now. Click this link for a 10% discount ($89/month).
Jun 2, 2016
Heading into Tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for May, economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 160K, which also happens to be what last month’s reported number was. In the private sector, economists are expecting an increase of 150K, which would be a similar level to what the consensus is expecting for the headline number and a 21K decline from last month. The unemployment rate is forecasted to fall back down to an extraordinarily low level of 4.9% from 5.0% last month. Growth in average hourly earnings is expected to decline to 0.2% from 0.3%, while hours worked is forecast to remain unchanged at 34.5. Net net, economists aren’t expecting much of a change from April’s reading.
In a report sent to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional clients today, we provided the historical performance of the S&P 500, sectors, individual stocks on the day of NFP reports over the last two years. To see the report, please sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership below!
See the full B.I.G. Tips report by signing up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now. Click this link for a 10% discount ($89/month).
