Low Jobless Rate: Is This As Good As It Gets?

Dec 2, 2016

This morning’s jobs report showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, falling from 4.9% to 4.6%, putting the jobless rate at its lowest level since August 2007.  Thinking back to that period, most of us remember all too well what happened going forward as the S&P 500 peaked in October and ultimately fell more than 50% over the next year and a half.  This has led some to question, is today’s jobs report as good as it gets?

joblessrate

To help answer that question, we looked back at the S&P 500’s historical performance during prior periods where we saw a similar trend in the jobless rate as today. To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership and get 10% off for life ($89/month).

November Employment Report Preview

Dec 1, 2016

employmentreportpreviewHeading into tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for November, economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 180K, which would be a 19K increase from last month’s weaker than expected reading of 161K.  In the private sector, economists are expecting an increase of 170K, which would be an improvement of 28K from October.  The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.9%.  Growth in average hourly earnings is expected to slow to 0.2% from last month’s reading of 0.4%, while hours worked is forecast to remain unchanged at 34.4.

With such high stakes surrounding the report, the market will likely have a big reaction to the upside or downside based on how the number comes in relative to expectations.  To that end, we just published our eleven-page monthly preview for the November jobs report.  This report contains a ton of analysis related to how the equity market has historically reacted to the monthly jobs report, as well as how secondary employment-related indicators we track looked in September.  We also include a breakdown of how the initial reading for September typically comes in relative to expectations and how that ranks versus other months.

For anyone with more than a passing interest in how equities are impacted by economic data, this report is a must read.  To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership and get 10% off for life ($89/month).