B.I.G. Tips – Still Negative After All These Years
This content is for members onlyBespoke’s “Death By Amazon” Index Makes 4-Year Low
Bespoke created its “Death By Amazon” index back in 2014 as a way to track the retail companies most affected by the rise of Amazon. Companies included must be direct retailers with a limited online presence (or core business based on physical retailing locations), a member of either the Retail Industry of the S&P 1500 or the S&P Retail Select index, and rely primarily on third party brands. We view these attributes as the best expression of AMZN’s threat to traditional retail.
Below is a look at the performance of Bespoke’s “Death By Amazon” index versus the S&P 1500 since the start of 2012. As shown, the index has underperformed the market significantly over this 5-year period. The DBA is up 25% versus the S&P 1500’s gain of 75%. And how has Amazon.com (AMZN) performed since early 2012? It’s up more than 300%.
Each month we provide an update of our “Death By Amazon” index along with a look at the performance of the index’s individual members. In this month’s report, we also feature one long idea from the department store group and one short idea from the “off-price” retailer group.
To see this month’s Death By Amazon report, sign up for a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Premium research service.
B.I.G. Tips – S&P 500 50-DMA Finally Broken
This content is for members onlyStocks on the Cusp of Finally Making “The List”
It may seem like just about every stock in the market has been hitting 52-week highs over the last few months, but within the S&P 1500 there are 451 stocks in the index that have not hit a 52-week high since the election. That’s nearly a third of the index! Among those stocks, some like Prologis (PLD) are within 1% of a new high, while others like Adeptus Health (ADPT) and Tidewater (TDW) are currently trading more than 90% below their 52-week highs. In other words, it is a very wide range. From a sector perspective, we all remember how Financials surged after the election, so it should come as no surprise that it is the only sector where less than 10% of the stocks in it haven’t hit a 52-week high since November 8th. On the other side of the spectrum, high yielding stocks underperformed post-election as interest rates rose, and that explains why at least half of the stocks in the Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Utilities sectors haven’t hit 52-week highs since the election.
Each morning when we update our daily charts of the stocks hitting new highs and new lows as part of the Morning Lineup, you may have noticed that it seems as though more often than not, once a stock first starts showing up on the “new highs” list, it tends to keep showing up over and over again going forward. This is your typical “breakout” pattern. With this in mind, we want to look for stocks that are not quite at new highs yet but are getting close. Once they make their new high, the sky is the limit. Earlier today we screened the S&P 1500 for all the stocks in the index that have not hit a 52-week high since the election but are currently within 5% of that level. While 41 stocks fit that criterion, we went through each of the charts to look for the names that are the least extended and have the most attractive chart patterns. To see this list of stocks “on the cusp,” sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!