Nov 30, 2017
Heading into Thanksgiving, investors were already thankful for a great year in the equity market, but this week the S&P 500 has taken things into a higher gear with a performance that would even make bitcoin proud. A key catalyst for this week’s move has been the increased prospects of a tax reform package getting passed, proving the point we have been making for some time now that tax reform getting done was not already fully priced into the market.
So how does the 18%+ return for the S&P 500 in the first eleven months of the year stack up against prior years, and based on how equities have performed in the first eleven months of 2017, can we expect more of the same to close things out, or will the bulls run out of gas?
In our most recently released B.I.G. Tips report, we looked at years that had the most similar trading pattern to 2017 to see what trends the December performance of the S&P 500 in those years had in common. This helps give us an idea of what to expect for the remainder of the year. This report is a must-read. To see it, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!
Nov 29, 2017
It was a rare painful day for the Nasdaq on Wednesday as the index fell more than 1% even as the DJIA traded up over 0.4%. For an index that was up close to 30% on the year heading into the day, Wednesday’s decline seemed even more extreme.
There haven’t been too many times in recent history where we have seen a similar divergence between the Nasdaq and DJIA. In fact, Wednesday was only the 7th time during the current bull market (since March 2009) where the DJIA was up on the day while the Nasdaq traded down over 1%. In our most recently released B.I.G. Tips report, we looked at how both the Nasdaq and DJIA performed following prior days where there were similar divergences. This report is a must-read. To see it, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!
Nov 21, 2017
Awful. Simply put, the word awful sums up the year for investors with ties to stocks in the retail sector not named Amazon.com (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), or a handful of other companies. It hasn’t been just 2017 either. As shown in our Death By Amazon Index (DBA) below, the retail sector has been in a tailspin for over two and a half years now. Since 2012, the index has rallied 29.3%, which is less than a third of the S&P 500’s 93.4% gain. More recently, though, things have been even worse. Since its peak in Spring 2015, the DBA index has lost more than a third of its value, and in just 2017 alone, it is down 15% in a year where the S&P 500 is up 15%! Not good.
In the last two weeks, though, retail stocks have been attempting to bounce ahead of the holiday season. Investors seem to be in the “bargain hunting” mood. Can it last? In our latest B.I.G. Tips report, we look at the recent rally in retail to put the gains in perspective too see if the recent gains are likely to last or fall by the wayside. For anyone interested in the retail sector, this report is a must-read. To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!
