The S&P 500 was down this week, but we were very happy with the action late in the trading day on Thursday and Friday. Buyers willingly stepped in after European markets closed on both days to end the week. We highlight this action in multiple charts in this week’s Bespoke Report, which you can access when you start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels. You won’t be disappointed!
In the market’s ceaseless determination to make a mountain out of every molehill, equities sold off sharply from record highs on Wednesday afternoon after Fed Chair Powell suggested that the FOMC had no plans to cut interest rates as futures markets were implying. Didn’t he have some nerve?
In the last month, Jobless Claims hit a 50-year low, Q1 GDP surprised to the upside and came in at 3.2%, the stock market was at record highs, and on Friday, Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside with a reading of 263K. Are there some blemishes on the landscape? Do things always look brightest at the peak? Sure, but to say the Fed must cut rates in this environment was a bit much. By the end of the week, cooler heads prevailed, and the S&P 500 finished the week less than 20 cents off its record closing high and less than ten points below its intraday record high.
Even more encouraging was the rally in the small-cap Russell 2000, which finally broke above resistance to close at its highest level since October. Traders often look to small caps for confirmation of a rally, and while we think they are often given more importance than they deserve, their outperformance this week doesn’t hurt.
We have a lot more to cover this week, including updates on some of the key leadership groups/indicators, drivers of the market’s strength in April, how earnings season is progressing so far, how the economy is faring, and the state of consumer sentiment, among other things. To read our full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels. You won’t be disappointed!
The S&P 500 shrugged off disappointing mid-week global economic data and some soft Friday earnings to close the week at a new all-time high. Just about half of the S&P 500’s market cap has now reported, though smaller-cap stocks have a lot more left in the tank this earnings season. So far, results have been a bit mixed, especially when it comes to top-line revenues; with stocks back at record levels, earnings need to deliver and finish the season strong.
Below is a look at asset class total returns using key ETFs. For each ETF, we show total returns year-to-date, since the last all-time high for the S&P 500 on 9/20/18, and since the bull market began back on March 9th, 2009.
In this week’s report, we analyze earnings results, global economic data, commodity and foreign exchange price movements, market sentiment, and more to give you the inside track on what’s driving the market at all-time highs. We cover everything you need to know as an investor in this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter. To read the Bespoke Report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels. You won’t be disappointed!
Investors have a lot going on this weekend, whether it’s gearing up for “a tradition unlike any other” at The Masters, the final season premiere of Game of Thrones, or finishing up 2018 tax returns that are due Monday. We’ll be focused on all three!
Before taking a break for the weekend, though, there’s plenty of market-related content to get to, so sign up for a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels and read our just-published Bespoke Report newsletter.
In this week’s report, we cover new highs for the S&P 500 total return index, the upcoming earnings reporting period, an uptick in Q1 GDP growth expectations, hot international equity markets, and more.
Following big market moves like we have seen in the last six months, a number of market characteristics tend to change as some new leadership groups emerge and others fall by the wayside. In order to help get a better idea of what sectors and groups have been driving the market, in this week’s Bespoke Report, we are providing a ‘chart checkup’ of all the S&P 500 Industries as well as providing updates to some key market and economic charts that we feel are important to highlight.
It was a banner week for US equities and a great encore to a strong first quarter. With the exception of the Dow (DIA), every major index ETF was up over 2%. Value outperformed growth across all three market caps, but the margin between the two was pretty narrow. Defensive sectors like Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) actually saw modest declines this week, while Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF), Communication Services (XLC), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) all rallied over 3%. In international markets, China (ASHR) surged over 7%, while Mexico (EWW) bounced over 5%. Australia (EWA) was the only country up less than 1%. Fixed income ETFs saw modest declines across the board.
This week’s report is loaded with over 95 pages of charts and tables analyzing the various market moves. To read the Bespoke Report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels. You won’t be disappointed!
Stocks have basically held the line this week despite huge moves in interest rates and an ongoing rough run for global economic data. Curve inversion has many forecasting a recession, and we’ve seen a number of recent data releases that make us much more nervous about that outcome than we have been in almost a decade. On the other hand, the pivot to dovishness from global central banks, the relatively modest size and scale of yield curve inversion, some nascent signs of bottoming in global growth, and the nature of the plunge in interest rates are all reasons to not panic. Besides, despite all of the negativity US stocks have held up admirably well, and markets that trend higher on bad news are generally regarded as strong, rather than weak. In short, the outlook could be Good, Bad, or Ugly…depending how you read the tea leaves!
In addition to markets, we take a look at central bank policy, the recession outlook in the US, and weak economic data around the world this week. We cover everything you need to know as an investor in this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter. To read the Bespoke Report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels. You won’t be disappointed!