Dec 3, 2021
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
Man The Barricades! There’s been a revolution in markets and policy since mid-November as policymakers decide to institute regime change with respect to their view of inflation. As a result, markets are diving for cover as bullets (falling commodity prices), bricks (a flattening yield curve), and bats (hawkish talk about the policy outlook) fly. Equities this week broadly reflected this sentiment: stocks rightly plunged on the news from Powell and suffered a number of sharp drops throughout the trading week. Overall the S&P 500 was down 1.2% after a 2.2% drop last week but did so with huge selling across stocks that are most sensitive to a hawkish Fed: hypergrowth, high valuation, recent IPO or SPAC, and related names got hammered as we will discuss later. Commodities markets also buckled as the Bloomberg Commodities Index fell for a third week running; oil and copper are now below their 200-DMA, natural gas posted its worst 4 day run in a quarter century, and grains lurched 4% lower in two sessions earlier this week. Even larger warning signals are coming from the bond market, where yields reacted to a pretty good (if messy) jobs report by plunging 10 bps at the 10y point of the curve; the 2s10s yield curve is now trading at the lowest levels since last December and suffered its biggest four session flattening move in a decade. We discuss all of this and more in this week’s Bespoke Report.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Nov 5, 2021
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
This week’s Bespoke Report is our Macro Quarterly summary of big trends from around the global economy and financial markets. We review recent policy decisions from the Fed and other global central banks, the recent massive shocks to energy markets and what comes next for those commodities, supply shortages in other contexts…and how the global economy may respond to these large swings driven by changing consumer demand, policy stimulus, and the COVID pandemic. We also review October labor market data from the BLS’ employment situation report, and the current high-level backdrop for US equity markets.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Oct 29, 2021
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
With the peak of earnings season ahead, including reports from the five largest companies in the S&P 500 (at the time), investors were looking at quite a hill to climb heading into this week. Based on past precedent, expectations weren’t great. In the past, when the five FAAMG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet) have reported earnings in the same week, their performance and the performance of the S&P 500 during that week has generally been poor. In the five prior occurrences where this occurred since 2015, the S&P 500 was down during that week four out of five times, and the only positive return was a modest gain of 0.14% in the week ending 4/30/21.
This week came and went, and the bulls were unfazed by the challenge. Despite mixed reports from the companies reporting– three of which were down on their earnings reaction days– the S&P 500 managed to rally more than 1% and hit record intraday highs on four of the week’s five trading days.
In this week’s Bespoke Report, we discuss all the issues impacting the market this week along with what to expect in the final two months of the year. To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Oct 22, 2021
This week’s Bespoke Report is an updated version of our “Pros and Cons” edition for Q4 2021.
With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now. It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!
On page two of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out. We then provide slides for each “pro” or “con” that we’ve highlighted.
To read this report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
